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THE Gulf of Mexico Oil Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Mexico To Strike Oil?

Postby shakespear1 » Tue 14 Mar 2006, 11:09:02

Can someone tell me why Mexico should rush to develop these reserves? If the price of oil doubled than the revenue stream s twice what it would have been before which translated to having an equivalent production two times higher at the old prices. :-)

It seems a no brainer to me what to do in such a situation.

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Re: Mexico May Have Hit the Mother Lode in Oil Find..

Postby Zardoz » Wed 15 Mar 2006, 03:20:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..10 billion barrels of crude oil.


Great! 119 days worth of global oil consumption at current rates!

We're saved!
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Re: Mexico May Have Hit the Mother Lode in Oil Find..

Postby gg3 » Wed 15 Mar 2006, 03:28:18

Ah, but the point about it being in Mexico, is that any North American discoveries are good for North America.

If the USA was serious about foreign policy, we'd be looking to disentangle from the Middle East and stick to buying from friendly countries, or at least from those that are rational ideological competitors e.g. Venezuela, rather than from regimes that support people who get their jollies by flying planes into buildings.

The real problem with new large discoveries, is that they act psychologically to put off the day of reckoning, and discourage investment in e.g. nuclear, wind, and solar.
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Re: Mexico May Have Hit the Mother Lode in Oil Find..

Postby rogerhb » Wed 15 Mar 2006, 03:58:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'I')f the USA was serious about foreign policy, we'd be looking to disentangle from the Middle East and stick to buying from friendly countries


Why? To get out for 4 months then only have to return again?

Of course the 10gigabarrels won't play out that way, it will still be a bell-curve for that field. So if we are past the peak now, it'll be a bump on the down slope.
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: Mexico May Have Hit the Mother Lode in Oil Find..

Postby Grimnir » Wed 15 Mar 2006, 05:01:58

LA Times: Oil Find in Mexico Far From Success

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')But the undersea riches won't come quickly, easily or cheaply. Not only could it take a decade for the new field to begin producing, but officials also acknowledge that the undertaking could push Mexico's engineering and financial capabilities to the limit.
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Re: Mexico May Have Hit the Mother Lode in Oil Find..

Postby linlithgowoil » Wed 15 Mar 2006, 05:30:09

Why do people say that - defining it in how many days consumption it provides? It is nonsense. A field that size would produce for decades at impressive flow rates, so i've no idea why comparing it to how many days consumption it would provide. Its a bad idea and totally misleading - you dont seriously think you can pump 10 billion barrels of oil out in 119 days do you?



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..10 billion barrels of crude oil.


Great! 119 days worth of global oil consumption at current rates!

We're saved!
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Re: Mexico May Have Hit the Mother Lode in Oil Find..

Postby pup55 » Wed 15 Mar 2006, 08:39:58

http://peakoil.com/fortopic1518.html

This sounds like the same oil find that was "announced" in late 2004.

So, maybe the recent announcement is for internal political purposes. Fox is about due to run for re-election. Surely it is widely known that oil money plus money emailed from the US by Mexico's young men are what is propping up the Mexican economy.

The idea that Mexico's oil production is in decline is problematic politically, so Fox has to make a big production out of the "new find" and give people the idea that the stability of the Mexican oil industry is assured, even though it is probably on the edge of disaster, and this big find is probably unexploitable. Fox cannot be seen as having let the industry go into a state of decay or he will probably be thrown out. Of course, he will eventually face the music in 4 years when production is down 32%, but maybe by then he will think of something else.
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Re: Mexico May Have Hit the Mother Lode in Oil Find..

Postby Ludi » Wed 15 Mar 2006, 08:58:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')But the undersea riches won't come quickly, easily or cheaply. Not only could it take a decade for the new field to begin producing, but officials also acknowledge that the undertaking could push Mexico's engineering and financial capabilities to the limit.



Looks like expensive oil to me! We need cheap oil, remember?
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Re: Mexico May Have Hit the Mother Lode in Oil Find..

Postby Leanan » Wed 15 Mar 2006, 09:34:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy do people say that - defining it in how many days consumption it provides?


To make the point that this doesn't change anything. Of course there's still lots of new finds out there. But will they make up for the decline of the aging giants, let alone allow us to keep increasing our use?

Cornucopians often claim Mexico has barely begun to explore deepwater oil, because they don't have the expertise. Maybe they're right. Maybe there's lots more where Cantarell came from.

OTOH, it seems like a lot of these (potentially) "huge discoveries" don't pan out. And Mexico has a record of exaggerating their finds. I think the jury is still out on whether this is the mother lode, or just more hopeful hype.
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Re: Mexico May Have Hit the Mother Lode in Oil Find..

Postby lorenzo » Wed 15 Mar 2006, 09:53:44

Similar article here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4808466.stm

Oil provides 1/3rd of Mexico's state income, so it's a hugely important find in that respect. If the State spends this money well, more Mexicans will find it easier to increase their living standards, which means they can finally buy a car to burn some of that petroleum more quickly. :P
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Re: Mexico May Have Hit the Mother Lode in Oil Find..

Postby frankthetank » Wed 15 Mar 2006, 10:23:47

I just returned from a week in Mexico. I noticed public transportation is utilized by a large majority of the Mexicans that work in the hotels/constuction (i was in Cancun). I doubt very few can afford a car, let alone the gas.

The problem with this find/and others, is that its in the bathtub we call the gulf...and Mexicans saw what Wilma did to their star tourist destination. It can do the same to oil installations, if not built to high standards.
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Re: Mexico May Have Hit the Mother Lode in Oil Find..

Postby Bleep » Wed 15 Mar 2006, 10:35:11

HELLO? Mexico's Cantarell is NOT the world's second largest field.

Mexico's Cantarell IS the world's second FASTEST produceble field.

No deep water field will replace Cantarell's flow rate.

Peak Oil isn't "peak oil by volume" it's "peak oil production rates."

This is what people don't get. This is the #1 point I always find myself having to drive home.

Failure to meet demand is effectively a shortage.

Demand happens at a rate. Production must match it. Easy oil is over. Fast oil is over. Production rates are peaking. Not volume. Rates.
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Re: Mexico May Have Hit the Mother Lode in Oil Find..

Postby NeoPeasant » Wed 15 Mar 2006, 10:36:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'I') just returned from a week in Mexico. I noticed public transportation is utilized by a large majority of the Mexicans that work in the hotels/constuction (i was in Cancun). I doubt very few can afford a car, let alone the gas.


I have heard that a major complaint made by Latin American immigrants to the U.S. (legal or not) is that the public transportation here is so inadequate compared to where they come from that they are forced into cars whether they like it or not.
The battle to preserve our lifestyle has already been lost. The battle to preserve our lives is just beginning.
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Re: Mexico May Have Hit the Mother Lode in Oil Find..

Postby Bleep » Wed 15 Mar 2006, 11:11:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NeoPeasant', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'I') just returned from a week in Mexico. I noticed public transportation is utilized by a large majority of the Mexicans that work in the hotels/constuction (i was in Cancun). I doubt very few can afford a car, let alone the gas.


I have heard that a major complaint made by Latin American immigrants to the U.S. (legal or not) is that the public transportation here is so inadequate compared to where they come from that they are forced into cars whether they like it or not.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://www.culturechange.org/issue10/taken-for-a-ride.htm]"Taken for a Ride" (link)[/url]

...

Narrator: The government's case was straight forward. National City Lines, General Motors and the other defendants were found guilty of conspiracy to monopolize the local transportation field.

Snell: These companies, that had probably eliminated systems that in order to reconstitute today would require maybe $300 billion, these companies were individually fined $5,000.
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Re: Mexico May Have Hit the Mother Lode in Oil Find..

Postby emersonbiggins » Wed 15 Mar 2006, 11:14:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', 'W')hy do people say that - defining it in how many days consumption it provides? It is nonsense. A field that size would produce for decades at impressive flow rates, so i've no idea why comparing it to how many days consumption it would provide. Its a bad idea and totally misleading - you dont seriously think you can pump 10 billion barrels of oil out in 119 days do you?


The equivocation swings both ways, esp. when you consider ex-Secretary/Interior Gale Norton said that ANWR would provide New Hampshire with all the oil it needs for 315 years (assuming that it would be the only recipient of that oil, of course). :roll:

Just for clarification, this field in Mexico could provide 1% of current world consumption for 32.6 years (119 days @ 100% world consumption; 11900 days @ 1% world consumption), a figure that largely dismisses the facts that depletion follows a bell curve and that consumption trends upward over time.
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

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Re: Mexico May Have Hit the Mother Lode in Oil Find..

Postby kochevnik » Wed 15 Mar 2006, 12:23:10

:!:

Something is REALLY, REALLY rotten in the state of Mexico. Just months after publishing the huge depletion rate at the country's fastest producing oil well, the Mexican Presidente goes on the boob toob to announce, that, yes, all is well, we have found yet another very large oil field just like Cantarell so there is no need for any of your investor types to remove your funds from our great corrupt country.

So wonderfully convenient for them to find a 'replacement' at EXACTLY the same time the main field is becoming greatly depleted.

Absolute fucking bullshit - you'd have to be quite a sucker to believe this load of crap.
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Re: Mexico May Have Hit the Mother Lode in Oil Find..

Postby seldom_seen » Wed 15 Mar 2006, 12:31:50

The casual reader coming across this story will probably have a reaction like "Wow, that's good news. I think I'll buy that Dodge Dakota Supercab afterall."

full throttle to the cliff!
Last edited by seldom_seen on Wed 15 Mar 2006, 17:53:26, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mexico May Have Hit the Mother Lode in Oil Find..

Postby Daculling » Wed 15 Mar 2006, 12:35:22

Wait... check this out

Pemex contracted a private company to drill the well. The fastest way to get the oil out would be by Pemex forming alliances with companies that have the deep-water technology. However, current laws forbid private companies from exploration and production activities in Mexico except under contract to Pemex.

The Fox administration has been attempting to ease foreign investment restrictions in the state-run energy sector. But those efforts have been blocked in Congress.


So what they are saying is that foreigners will have to cross the border to do the work that Mexicans will not. :)
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Re: Mexico May Have Hit the Mother Lode in Oil Find..

Postby Starvid » Wed 15 Mar 2006, 12:38:50

This is the biggest find in 10-15 years, isn't it? The biggest since Kashagan?

How much of these 10-11 gigabarells are recoverable? 100% ?
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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