by Keith_McClary » Wed 20 Oct 2004, 03:37:03
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mortifiedpenguin', 'I')'m just curious, is the oil peak a proven fact and guaranteed to happen, or is it still just a theory? Because I'm, well, really worried about it.
Peak oil refers to cheap "conventional oil" which usually means primary recovery (drill a hole and the oil flows out) and secondary recovery (pump in water or gas to maintain the underground pressure). The amount of this is finite so production must peak and then decline. The peak will happen anytime from yesterday to 2050 or so depending on who you listen to.
You will find economists who say that peak conventional oil doesn't matter. They typically lump together all concievable sources of energy:
tertiary recovery (heat and chemicals)
oil sands and shales
coal
nuclear
wind, tidal, biomass
and recite the mantras:
"free market forces"
"technological advances"
"human ingenuity"
and conclude that everything will be fine. They see no need to tell us quantitatively where our oil or gas (or replacements) will be coming from in the next decade - have faith in their economic theories.
They also believe that technology is a kind of magic that will continue to pour fourth benefits indefinitely. In fact, much of our current (oil&gas) technology was conceived decades ago based on long known scientific principles. It's implementation waited on developments in electronics and computers. These technologies are now mature. People in the industry are not anticipating big advances as they were decades ago.