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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Are we absolutely sure the oil peak is going to happen?

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Are we absolutely sure the oil peak is going to happen?

Unread postby mortifiedpenguin » Mon 18 Oct 2004, 16:57:48

I'm just curious, is the oil peak a proven fact and guaranteed to happen, or is it still just a theory? Because I'm, well, really worried about it.
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Short answer: yes

Unread postby some_guy282 » Mon 18 Oct 2004, 17:14:45

The basic theory is sound, and has been proven true on individual fields and countries as a whole. So yes, there is a general consensus that the peak will occur. The real question is when the peak will happen. Some say as late as 2030 (highly unlikely) to as soon as 4 years ago...
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Unread postby Sencha » Mon 18 Oct 2004, 19:48:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ecause I'm, well, really worried about it.


I feel your pain Penguin, I feel your pain. :cry:
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Unread postby Concerned » Tue 19 Oct 2004, 07:52:14

Peak Oil will happen or it may already have happened.

We can reduce our consumption to help a transition to alternatives and even that transition will be painful.

The cheap energy party was fun while it lasted. :lol:
"Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
-Italian Proverb
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Unread postby clv101 » Tue 19 Oct 2004, 08:06:34

Sorry peak oil is a fact mortifiedpenguin. 18 or so major regions have peaked and since the world is a collection of regions which have individually been shown the peak, it follows that world production will also peak some day. Most notable is lower 48 states of America whose production peaked 1970 at ~10 million barrels per day and is now down to ~4 million barrels per day and more recently the North Sea with UK production peaking at 2.7 mb/p in 1999 and now down to 2.0mb/p.

Just when global peak is depends on just how much is left. This is tricky since the countries and companies involved are very secretive - it's fair to say though that all the available evidence points to a global peak this decade.
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Unread postby Soft_Landing » Tue 19 Oct 2004, 10:03:57

That oil production (should I say extraction!) will someday peak, well, that is a logical necessity.

The amount of time we have until that peak arrives is a matter of tiresome debate. And will continue to be until it arrives, no doubt.

The questions that concern many of us is what the consequences will be, and whether we should even be worried. You'll find plenty of discussion about that if you trawl through the site, and most seem to be of the opinion that without a new and rapidly emerging energy source in the very near future (are we already too late? history will tell), society is in for some very big changes, to say the least.

There are things you can do. Look in the planning for the future forum for a few ideas. Read widely before you form any opinions. Most importantly, enjoy yourself.
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Unread postby theshadypeach » Tue 19 Oct 2004, 14:50:41

Oil is a finite resource, so a peak in production is guaranteed. Even if it is abiotic, Oil production is guaranteed to peak because more of it is used than produced. The peaking of oil has already been proven, as it has already happened in some countries. The United States of America's oil production has already peaked inthe seventies.
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Unread postby Jenab » Tue 19 Oct 2004, 23:51:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'P')eak Oil will happen or it may already have happened.

We can reduce our consumption to help a transition to alternatives and even that transition will be painful.

The cheap energy party was fun while it lasted. :lol:

Now it is time for us all to go into the small room for 90 days where we will find only enough food to feed 5% of us for that much time. Knives ready?
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Re: Are we absolutely sure the oil peak is going to happen?

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Wed 20 Oct 2004, 03:37:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mortifiedpenguin', 'I')'m just curious, is the oil peak a proven fact and guaranteed to happen, or is it still just a theory? Because I'm, well, really worried about it.

Peak oil refers to cheap "conventional oil" which usually means primary recovery (drill a hole and the oil flows out) and secondary recovery (pump in water or gas to maintain the underground pressure). The amount of this is finite so production must peak and then decline. The peak will happen anytime from yesterday to 2050 or so depending on who you listen to.

You will find economists who say that peak conventional oil doesn't matter. They typically lump together all concievable sources of energy:

tertiary recovery (heat and chemicals)
oil sands and shales
coal
nuclear
wind, tidal, biomass

and recite the mantras:

"free market forces"
"technological advances"
"human ingenuity"

and conclude that everything will be fine. They see no need to tell us quantitatively where our oil or gas (or replacements) will be coming from in the next decade - have faith in their economic theories.

They also believe that technology is a kind of magic that will continue to pour fourth benefits indefinitely. In fact, much of our current (oil&gas) technology was conceived decades ago based on long known scientific principles. It's implementation waited on developments in electronics and computers. These technologies are now mature. People in the industry are not anticipating big advances as they were decades ago.
Last edited by Keith_McClary on Wed 20 Oct 2004, 14:39:58, edited 1 time in total.
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noodle baking and other recipies

Unread postby duff_beer_dragon » Wed 20 Oct 2004, 14:32:20

Of course it's real! It's been remote-viewed by the Company's finest psychopaths (in between their trying to join up with my mind of course) and clairvoyants-in-residence, there is only one possible future timeline, can't possibly be any other way forward - the future is fixed,

so that means it doesn't matter what you do, since you've already done it haven't you,

so why worry? It was all programmed before you were born, you don't have a choice in what happens, nobody does.

So why have a website about it.........as if it can be changed.
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Unread postby mortifiedpenguin » Wed 20 Oct 2004, 16:27:30

^^ They have pills for that, you know......
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Unread postby Justamom » Thu 21 Oct 2004, 01:01:58

It is scary. I had many fitful nights of sleep at first, frankly. I think researching and reading the forum here has helped because I am "doing" something, not that I have the resources to survive, but I will be striving to keep myself and sons alive. Is that purpose?? Is that just something to do for a while?


Trying to be prepared here. <shrug> There are a lot of questions - tough questions - asked on this board. You should read everything and put some thought into everything. Question everything, its the way solutions are found.

Welcome to the salt mines btw..

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re:

Unread postby duff_beer_dragon » Thu 21 Oct 2004, 08:57:12

Pills for what? Sarcasm? Seeing thru lies? I haven't heard of those pills, do they have a name?

The British built an Empire without any fossil fuels - unless that was some kind of BDS-PuzzleBox conspiracy that utilised the oil fields of China?

I got pills for you - purple ones - red + blue = purple*, geddit?


*since it will undoubtedly rattle someone, that would be colours as in pigmentation, not as in light-emitting
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Unread postby Zapatos_Bear » Thu 21 Oct 2004, 09:37:46

The whole peak oil part does not scare as much as the concequences and what we will depend on for energy. Frankly, I think our dependence on fossil fuels is disgusting and it was unfortunate to have discovered such a high yeild resource right off the bat. But, since we have no other options to turn to besides ones that yeild a fraction of the energy that oil yeilds and account for only a small bit of the energy consumed by our growing world, we can count on a sudden and severe change in our luxurious lifestyle.
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Re: re:

Unread postby quantinghome » Thu 21 Oct 2004, 09:48:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('duff_beer_dragon', '
')The British built an Empire without any fossil fuels - unless that was some kind of BDS-PuzzleBox conspiracy that utilised the oil fields of China?


:lol: :lol: :lol:

Of course, the British Empire had nothing to do with the industrial revolution. Which in turn had nothing to do with coal.... :cry:
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Re: re:

Unread postby Jenab » Thu 21 Oct 2004, 11:42:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('quantinghome', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('duff_beer_dragon', '
')The British built an Empire without any fossil fuels - unless that was some kind of BDS-PuzzleBox conspiracy that utilised the oil fields of China?


:lol: :lol: :lol:

Of course, the British Empire had nothing to do with the industrial revolution. Which in turn had nothing to do with coal.... :cry:

The British did not need fossil fuels to create an empire. Neither did the Romans, except maybe for metalworking to make swords. And I'm not convinced that concussion weapons made of appropriately selected wood can't replace metal cutting weapons. The point is that the British (and the Romans) had the means to transport large numbers of troops with more efficiency and with greater organization than their rivals, usually.

Jerry Abbott
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Re: re:

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 21 Oct 2004, 14:48:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jenab', '
')The point is that the British (and the Romans) had the means to transport large numbers of troops with more efficiency and with greater organization than their rivals, usually.
Jerry Abbott

The British (and the Romans) used wooden ships.
Check out this little page:
http://library.thinkquest.org/17456/latehistall.html
(made by high school students:
http://www.thinkquest.org/library/site_ ... stall.html ).

Sound familiar?
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British/Romans

Unread postby seahorse » Fri 22 Oct 2004, 19:41:48

I'm not sure what the point is about what the British and Romans did - its not a good comparison. Its not correct to say or imply that the British or Romans didn't use vast amounts of resources. They consumed vast amounts of the resources that they needed to sustain their cultures. The British used vast amounts of coal and wood, and England is now virtually depleted of both. The Romans conquered for land, land needed for resources to sustain a growing population. Soldiers were promised land in enchange for service, and Rome fought countless wars for land, killing thousands, if not hundreds of thousands for the right to control it. The British and Roman cultures built empires by conquering for the resources they needed to sustain themselves. The fact is our new world of six billion people couldn't sustain itself on coal or wood alone like the Romans did. Without oil, we would quickly revert to living like the Romans, which isn't so nostalgic in retrospect, considering they didn't have toilet paper, ice, air-conditioning, anti-biotics, cokes, hamburgers, or anything else we take foregranted. I think the point of peak oil is the fact that the prospect of reverting to a Roman culture is not very exciting, especially the thought of the current world population being reduced to whatever the world population was during either the British or Roman empires, which wasn't much. And don't forget, they had the black plague and all other kind of fun pandemics to deal with. So, if all we have to look forward to is being Roman, I"m not too excited. I hope it doesn't come to that. I'm optimistic that it won't.
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Unread postby chris-h » Fri 22 Oct 2004, 23:22:11

The Romans resourse was gold.
When gold peak their empire broke in 2.

Greeks empire resourse was gold and silver.
88822-88822=0
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