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THE Prof. Kenneth Deffeyes Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Postby Peak_Plus » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 03:40:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', ':')!:

This is a pretty basic question, but would any of you master gardeners / farmers agree with Deffeyes idea that volcanic soil doesn't need fertilizer ?

Yeah, volcanic soil is more robust. It holds its nutrients longer, doesn't get leached so quickly.
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Not with a bang but a wimper!
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Postby TorrKing » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 05:05:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', ':')!:

This is a pretty basic question, but would any of you master gardeners / farmers agree with Deffeyes idea that volcanic soil doesn't need fertilizer ?

Yeah, volcanic soil is more robust. It holds its nutrients longer, doesn't get leached so quickly.


And volcanic ash contains lots of minerals.

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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Postby Pops » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 10:30:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', ':')!:

This is a pretty basic question, but would any of you master gardeners / farmers agree with Deffeyes idea that volcanic soil doesn't need fertilizer ?


I’m no expert but will say that all soils can be depleted of nutrients and eventually will be without amendments, rotations, fallowing, etc.

Google volcanic soil fertility
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Postby Leanan » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 10:58:18

What Pops said. Volcanic soil is great, but all soils need fertilizer if you grow crops on them repeatedly.

This article is about how fertility of volcanic soils affected Hawaiian history. There is evidence that soil depletion caused famine and warfare.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')"Clearly, the Hawaiians were pushing agriculture to its limits," said Patrick V. Kirch, a professor of anthropology at the University of California-Berkeley and co-author of the Science study. "We can see that the fields on Hawai'i were getting smaller and smaller, and that there was no place for them to expand geographically."

According to Vitousek, the shortage of arable land probably played a role in the rise of aggressive chiefdoms on Maui and Hawai'i in the 18th century.

"The Hawaiian Islands had a true class system led by chiefs who enjoyed elite privileges," Kirch noted. "To maintain the social order at the level they were accustomed to, the chiefs had to go into a mode of aggressive action. It's interesting that the really aggressive chiefdoms came from the highly intensified dryland systems on Maui and Hawai'i, where per capita yields were declining. They probably looked up the chain of islands toward Moloka'i and O'ahu and said, 'I'd love to get hold of those taro paddies.'"
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Postby gary_malcolm » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 11:00:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'F')unny thing is...{snip} ... he's a tad wonkish when he speaks and doesn't understand the sustainable alternatives thing too well.



LOL :lol: - Him, Exxon, US Administration, Bio-Diesel Drivers, Whole Food Shoppers, in fact the whole human race.

Alternative (as MonteQuest is fond of pointing out) is a horrible and false flag run up by those who hope to continue waste in the face of the crises that loom before us. There is NO 'ALTERNATIVE'.

Power Down. Stop having children.

Or die. :twisted: :lol:
Gary Malcolm

US Empire

There is no alternative source for our gluttony. Power down or die.
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Postby pedalling_faster » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 11:19:15

Link to image

Less Oil. Lots of SUV's.
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Postby Zardoz » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 15:21:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pedalling_faster', '.')..Less Oil. Lots of SUV's.


Ha! A classic!

Oh, the irony...
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Postby wagdog » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 18:56:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')I’m no expert but will say that all soils can be depleted of nutrients and eventually will be without amendments, rotations, fallowing, etc.


However Terra Preta seems to be able to resist depletion and actually regenerate itself, according to the Amazonian farmers growing their food with it.
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Postby Leanan » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 21:09:39

Terra preta is good stuff, but it's not magical. Contrary to what that link said, scientists have recreated it.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/11522955/

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')ake some normal soil, add a handful of charcoal, a bunch of leaves and a dollop of cow poop.


It retains nutrients well, but it's not inexhaustible. Nutrients will have to be replaced eventually, as with any growing medium.
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Postby grabby » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 22:33:53

Of all the places to be, Western Oregon is the best, the weather is cool and the water is plentiful and if you rotate crops you need no fertilizer. The most organic producers exist in Oregon and california, the ones in Oregon don't need to irrigate, and water is the key.

eugene area is 10/10. most greenies have found this out already.

If you position yourself between eugene and salem you will avoid any residual dust from eugene and Salem. (Salem is the captial stay at least 10 mile away from there it could disappear.
The two highways to the coast are ideal farm land and amazingly lots of property IS FOR SALE! nice 10 acre rural farms, go figure.

Between Florence and coos-bay on highway 101 there is almost always wind, you windmillers could put one up in your backyard, and it would run almost every day, this is the kite capital of the west coast.
at coos bay and lightly below it rains very little and some retired people from five states finally end up here, it is a retired persons area. They are usually the very rich living tright along the ocean. There it is beautiful california without the california part, undiscovered by many. you should take a trip and go up 101 from portland to california over a two week period, lots of stops. Make SURE to stay at WINCHESTER BAY and see the sand dunes at winchester, drive out there, STAY OVERNIGHT! it is a boat center and 1 mile west are the most georgous sand dunes and ocean grass trails. you willl probably see deer. Florence, 2 miles south of the bridge you can rent a sand dune ride tour on the big blue sand bus, just DO IT, i know it isnt very green, but it will take you where real nature is and it is awesome. just do it. Awesome. We travel 12 hours just to drive this area in the summer , and humbug state park is the best camping area it has its own lagoon at night and you can build fires on all beaches at night, very cool lots of wood. Some campgrounds let you put a tent right on the edge of the shoreline and you can walk to the ocean. please stop at EVERY state park and turn off and get pictures, youll never forget it.

Stay at Salishan Lodge in Lincoln city over the weekend JUST DO IT! you will not forget it, and INN at the spanish head in Lincoln city if there is a stormy night, awesome breakers right outside your window.

Where do you know that you can walk off the highway and into the woods and pick a knapsack of morell mushrooms?, Poppies cover the roadsides, Beautiful in june and july. Stop on Agate beach and just fill your pockets after a storm. pretty cool (This is in northern Cal and southern oregon.)

The economy is very bad, it used to be logging, but has more semiconductors. lots of nice, poor people, already half off the grid because of no income, very friendly, these people will do ok probably just after peak, theya lready have gardens and chickens and such. They gather wood to heat their house anyway. and there are lots of uncut trees. There are national forests everywhere, and no one will give a care after peak what happens, it is too wet for real forest fires..
Thanks to the tree huggers, if the rules go away you will have lots of wood.



step back into Daniel Boones era in one day. On the trails through the rest areas and beaches you are alone with the wind and birds and I always think what Lewis and Clark saw, it was exactly all this, except for the 300 foot windmills on the few tall hills around here.
Last edited by grabby on Thu 02 Mar 2006, 23:58:33, edited 6 times in total.
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Postby HonestPessimist » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 23:36:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', ' ')step back into Daniel Boones era in one day. On the trails through the rest areas and beaches you are alone with the eind and birds and I always think what Lewis and Clark saw, it was exactly all this.


Sadly, not many people could end like Daniel Boones in the future. More like the future of Mad Max or Soylent Green.
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Postby rogerhb » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 00:06:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')effeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely


Hey, I can ride a horse. Does that mean there are still job opportunities?
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Postby Magus » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 01:32:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')effeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely


Hey, I can ride a horse. Does that mean there are still job opportunities?


Well, the positions of War (Iraq, soon Iran and more), Plague (Bird Flu), and Famine (coming fuel crisis and climate change), have already been filled.

We do, however, have an opening for Death.
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Postby rogerhb » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 05:00:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Magus', 'W')e do, however, have an opening for Death.


If memory serves me right, the horse's name is "Binky".
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Postby retiredguy » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 11:37:28

I've been gardening the same patch of ground for 25 successive years with no reduction in yield and without the use of commercial fertilizers. Compost is the secret ingredient and is simple to produce if one follows some basic rules.

Organic farming, however, is labor intensive.
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Postby Leanan » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 11:46:46

That is how farming was conducted for most of human history. Organic fertilizers like compost, manure, etc., were used. And were considered quite valuable. Manure was never not thought of as waste on the old family farms. Indeed, it was often hard to get a farmer to sell it you. He needed it for himself.

I've heard that in some parts of China, people will actually pay money for...ahem...the contents of your "chamberpot." For use as fertilizer.
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Postby TorrKing » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 12:11:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'T')hat is how farming was conducted for most of human history. Organic fertilizers like compost, manure, etc., were used. And were considered quite valuable. Manure was never not thought of as waste on the old family farms. Indeed, it was often hard to get a farmer to sell it you. He needed it for himself.

I've heard that in some parts of China, people will actually pay money for...ahem...the contents of your "chamberpot." For use as fertilizer.


Actually, for most of history they didn't realise the effect of fertilizers at all and didn't use it deliberately. Though my information is useless, I just had to correct it. :)

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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Postby Leanan » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 12:41:34

It really doesn't matter whether they understood the underlying principles. What mattered was they did it. Using "night soil" as fertilizer has a long history, and is still a common practice in Third World nations.
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Deffeyes update

Postby Leanan » Wed 08 Mar 2006, 15:11:12

Deffeyes has posted another update. It's in honor of the 50th anniversary of Hubbert's prediction.

He also says he wasn't serious about that "Stone Age" thing:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') do have an apology to make for a line in my February Current Events comment on this website. After stating that the world oil peak had already occurred on December 16, 2005, I reported that the Bush administration hoped to double the direct solar electric generation from the present one percent to two percent by the year 2025. My fingers got away from me and typed out: "By 2025, we'll be back in the Stone Age." I'm sorry that some readers thought that I actually meant that we would be wearing furs and hunting buffalo with flint spear points. It's called "hyperbole." Nevertheless, I have been looking into acquiring some property on the Arkansas novaculite belt. Great flint.
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Re: Deffeyes update

Postby shakespear1 » Wed 08 Mar 2006, 15:14:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'I'm sorry that some readers thought that I actually meant that we would be wearing furs and hunting buffalo with flint')
If they thought this then they should go back to grade school. Amazing!!!!! :?
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