[send_oil_please]

"Nothing. The slide begins. Nobody is going to help you."

(LMAO for that one)

Seriously though, as others said, it probably won't be apparent in hind sight and won't matter much once it is.

Look at the Past Experiences like this one. There really is no "Starting Gun" etc.... Just a LOT of confusion and recriminations for the decades or centuries until the Poor Saps recover (or disappear, or get absorbed into neighboring gene pools, etc).

99.999% of the people never knew what hit them or why. There were many very funny episodes of false accusations that produced comic but tragically very real deaths (on mass scales sometimes).

I personally won't be taking any "last fling vacations" etc - this is just another blip in history.

Do the best you can. Don't Panic. Get "safer" at a speed you can afford and hope you get Safe Enough by the time TS really does start hitting the fan.

[Peak_Plus]

Welcome to the real world.

This is not the world created by the economists. It is also not the world envisioned by environmentalists, peak-oilers or those living in the hope of being saved by the God of Techonology.

Funny, McKillop was right, that rising oil prices would be good for the world economy. Why? Because we need more effort in order to compensate for high energy prices / short energy resources. My guess is that the first year or two of falling oil production will actually be stimulating, especially for world-wide employment. But then, as soon as conservation and increased effort do not compensate for falling oil production, the shit will at least be flying toward the fan. My guess is 6 to 10 years before it really starts hurting. And until then, there will be thousands who will say, "we have conquered peak oil!" It may even happen that we peak oilers are laughed at by our closest friends and family:-)

Who knows, maybe by then we will be able to compensate with a good bit of technology...

[FossilFool]

I'm not excited to have it happen. I just wanted to understand about the immediate economics of it and if they might not be manifested right away like did we produce less oil in January than December and if so, why TS didn't HTF or if we have a farther descent to do that if we did produce less? I'm preparing as much as I can.

[FossilFool]

It does matter in how prepared I'll be when it happens. Those people who knew about it long ago were so lucky.

[Peak_Plus]

Once you understand the REAL economics behind it (and not the fiat-currency based economics we learn at college), please wright a book about it. It will be very educational for all of us!-)

[Ancien_Opus]

Here's some basics. Supply and demand are in rough balance at peak. Demand wants to pull away but supply can't keep up. Price rises and a certain amount of demand destruction occurs which shores up supply.

This works fine for a awhile until one day TSHTF and traders realize that
supply isn't really ever going to catch up with demand. Then the price goes exponentially high. Demand could be crushed and the whole cycle could then rebound as prices collapse.

The tight oil market now swings wildly on speculation or pending potential problems (polictical/weather) right now because there is little reserve capacity. It's a roller coaster ride so buckle up and hang on.

[Pretorian]

5 to 10mln people ( including two of my great-grandfarthers) died within 14-15 months period. Dead people on the streets were laying for days even in big cities, in the countryside noone even bothered with buring them, they were just laying and rotting..People were eating worms, grass, kannibalism was everywhere.. There are were many, many cases when mothers were eating their own kids... And all this was happening in the country which has 25% of all blacksoils of the world... If its gonna be like this , it's gonna suck no matter will you survive or not..

[IslandCrow]

Please give more detail of this. Was it at the time of the Communist revolution, with the Anarchists and the Ukrainian party forming 3 different groups fighting each other and the whites?

[Pretorian]

No, during Civil War/German occupation/ets turmoil there are were no famine in Ukraine. In fact I've never heard about any famine in Ukraine before communists took Kiev in 1920. There are were a small-scale famile in 1922; but in the end of 20s Soviets were campaigning among peasants for so called "collective farms" (which meant that you had to give up all your land and horses/cattle and work 12 hours a day and get whatever they think you made (5-10 sacks of grain, more or less) per year.) Ukrainians didnt like the idea. My great-grandfarther was jailed for not giving up his only cow, where he died a few years later in 1933. So, in 1932 Soviets took all grains from Ukraine and sold it abroad, and didnt leave any for food or even for next year seeds.. So in 1933 there are were no crop either.. Cops were searching every house for hidden food, and sometimes they were surrounding a "bad" village and wasnt letting anyone out alive , till everyone dies.
you can get some pictures here
http://www.ukrajinci.hu/holod/holod_fot ... %2094.html

[TorrKing]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', 'l')eave any for food or even for next year seeds.

[IslandCrow]

Thanks for the additional information. I looked up a book I have about a group that was in the Ukraine: From one letter dated December 10, 1931:-

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t looks as though we won't be celebrating a very happy Christmas.....They have arrested our dear brother, Isaak. ...Hans was sentenced to 8 years, and Hein. to 6 years because they hadn't fulfilled the Plan. Our Uncle and Aunt have no bread....
There will be a big famine this year. Even now there is much starvation in the land. Nothing can be bought and, if it can, it's so expensive it can't be paid for. There is no wheat flour whatsoever.

[Katchka]

Hi. I'm new here. Just registered as a matter of fact. What is the TSHTF model? This caught my attention as my mother is a survivor of the Ukrainian famine of 1933. She was 10 at the time and told many, many stories of cannibalism in her village, starving people showing up at their door begging for food, eating boiled weeds and unripe apples. She always cried when she talked about it and she always cried when she saw news footage of starving children in Africa throughout the 70's and 80's. And she always asked the same question: "Why are they still doing this to the people of the world?"

What is the TSHTF model? Thanks.

[TorrKing]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Katchka', 'H')i. I'm new here. Just registered as a matter of fact. What is the TSHTF model? This caught my attention as my mother is a survivor of the Ukrainian famine of 1933. She was 10 at the time and told many, many stories of cannibalism in her village, starving people showing up at their door begging for food, eating boiled weeds and unripe apples. She always cried when she talked about it and she always cried when she saw news footage of starving children in Africa throughout the 70's and 80's. And she always asked the same question: "Why are they still doing this to the people of the world?"

What is the TSHTF model? Thanks.

[Pretorian]

Well I really dont think its gonna be any worse. 1932-33 was an action controlled by State. PO turmoil will be chaotic, so more violent and less cinic. Besides, there are truckloads of guns in USA and Canada, so I dont think it will last for a very long time...

[NTBKtrader]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'O')ne of the reasons I like the fact that many Texans, especially around here, are well armed and have libertarian inclinations is that I think it could give us a better chance of standing up to the
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ops ... searching every house for hidden food

[beefstuinit]

Ok, granted this is not going to happen, but i was thinking in purely theoretical and ridiculous terms, what possible scenario could save our modern way of life?

The answer?

And its the only one i could come up with:

space elevators and space based solar.

theoretically if modern society were to realize its impending doom (nope, i know this is about as likely as abitotic oil) it could rally around cutting demand and rallying around getting a space elevator working, which is more feasible than i had imagined (theres capital invested right now).

however they say the first one couldnt be operational until ~2025... too late.

however if they did get one running, it would be very cost effective and economicaly feasible to construct a massive solar array on the end of the thing that would recieve constant sunlight and would pump power back down the tether.

yeah i know.

its not going to happen.

however due to its techinical feasibility utilzing suprisingly mature technology and its complete renewability/lack of pollution/expandability....

however it also only works under the assumption society also realizes the ills of overpopulation and stops making kids at such a ridiculous rate, otherwise it just goes from running out of oil to running out of everything else... also not happening

its the only thing i could think of...

so anyway, back to the real world.

[Ludi]

I don't think that kind of speculation is very useful.

And evenif there were a technological "save" from PO, we'd still be faced with the other problems of global climate change, mass extinction, soil and water depletion, etc.

All those "overshoot" things.

[emersonbiggins]

cold fusion would help us ravage this planet a bit faster

[beefstuinit]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'c')old fusion would help us ravage this planet a bit faster

[mmasters]

When's it gonna happen?