[pup55]

Here are the highlights of the Jan-Mar oil discovery announcements from Alexander's Oil and Gas Connections:

Alexander's

Total discoveries announced in 2005 thus far amount to approximately 2.1 gb.

Highlights: A 5.2 gb discovery in Iran, of which 855 mb are considered "extractable". (There is no talk of what the rest of the field is, if not "extractable" then what? I just counted the .855 gb as the "discovery")

A 1 gb discovery by Cheetah off of New Guinea.

China puts out press releases periodically about how well their discovery program is doing, but unless verified by the BP review or other "reliable" source I will consider this in a separate category.

ASPO's 2004 estimate of discoveries was 7.1 gb, but mine, using a summary of announcements from Alexander's, was about 9.7 gb. This estimate is highly subjective, because of all of the weasel talk put out by the exploration companies to get around SEC regulations, plus you sometimes have to make estimates of field sizes based on test well flow rates, and they are no doubt better at it than I am.

The industry is now pumping approximately 30 gb per year. By 2010 this is estimated to be about 44 gby, so the replacement ratio is about 25% at the moment.

When the BP review comes out in June, we should be able to get a third data point.

I don't keep track of gas discoveries because oil is more interesting. If somebody else wants to, feel free. Gas discoveries are about twice as numerous as oil discoveries right now.

[Geology_Guy]

There was a 500 million barrel discovery in Utah a few months ago. Pretty big for the US.

[Such]

until this stuff starts totallying well above 30 GB EXTRACTABLE for the year, then I'll pay attention.

[arretium]

exactly how can the world produce 44 gb/year in 2010?

[Phil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('arretium', 'e')xactly how can the world produce 44 gb/year in 2010?

[DamienJasper]

I'm sorry, this is probably a really stupid question;

What is g/b?

[killJOY]

should be Gb, for gigabarrels, or billion barrels.

(not stupid: ya never know unless ya ask)

[nth]

Umm... i think the 44gb is for 2020-2025. Not 2010.
We are using 32gb right now. 37gb is the highest I have seen.

Remember a lot of people believe in the CERA's 16mbpd prediction. But that includes natural gas and other non-conventional sources.

[Taskforce_Unity]

Do you have any spreadsheets with discovery data from 2000-2005 Pup55?

[pup55]

Sorry, I have been only keeping track for the last 18 months.

I think Alexander's archives go back further than that. It's work to compile them all, though.

[Taskforce_Unity]

Do you have any updated info on the last few months? Could look it up myself but if you have a ready spreadsheet . I intend to regularly keep an eye on discoveries.

The Cheetah discovery is not that certain I think.

15-02-05 Hydrocarbon explorer, Cheetah Oil and Gas has reported both oil and gas find in Papua New Guinea's Aitape sub-basin.

"The announcement was based on a consultancy report by 3D-Geo of Melbourne, who was engaged to complete an evaluation of some of Cheetah's extensive land position in Papua New Guinea. "

"Resource determinations indicate over a billion barrels of light oil resource, and more than 1,2 tcf of gas, from a total of 13 leads which were mapped. "

Chief Geologist and PNG General Manager, Jack Sari says the company is encouraged its early examination of prospecting licence, which is showing potential to contain significant hydrocarbon reserves.

But Mr Sari says a lot of work is still to be done.
He says these early indications are drawing interesting similarities, to existing proven oil and gas fields in nearby Indonesia, the US and in parts of the Middle East....

I already found the 2004 hread on your discovery estimates.

Stuart Strikes oil in cooper basin

The full significance of the Padulla discovery is now under evaluation, however the field is likely to contain between 850,000 (P50) to 3.4 million (P10) barrels of oil in place.

Hydro announces new oil find in Libya

Exploration block NC186 in the Murzuq basin, This is the sixth commercial oil find in this block, and the production test demonstrated over 4,500 barrels of oil per day with the help of an electric pump. To determine the size and extent of the find, several appraisal wells will be drilled.

[pup55]

Here's my updated spreadsheet.

If the press release announces a test well volume, I estimate the find by calculating the 30-year total at that rate. If the press release announces a field size, I just use that. Sometimes, neither is announced. I have just been keeping track of oil and not gas.

Thus far, discoveries in 2005 are about 9.5 gb. This is almost exactly the same as last year's discoveries. Still a month to go, though.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', ' test well Field Size
10-Jan-05 PA Resources Tunisia x
11-Jan-05 Petronas Niger 2450
11-Jan-05 Cairn Rajasthan 100,000
13-Jan-05 Chevron texaco Cambodia x
19-Jan-05 Niko Hazira 6000
21-Jan-05 Santos Indonesia x 170
24-Jan-05 Habanero Alberta 49
2/3/2005 Santos indonesia x
2/9/2005 Philipines Mindanao x
2/10/2005 CNPC x
2/12/2005 Sonagol/BP Angola 5330
2/16/2005 Shell Gabon 4000
2/18/2005 Woodside Mauritania 12400
2/18/2005 Valkyries So Texas 168
3/9/2005 Iran Khuzestan x 855
2/12/2005 cheetah new guinea x 1000
2/15/2005 Exxon Angola 5330
2/16/2005 Shell gabon 4000
2/18/2005 Woodside mauritania 9150
3/14/2005 Petrobras Rio De Janeiro x
3/17/2005 Woodside GOM x
3/22/2005 Unocal GOM x
3/22/2005 Caspian holdings Caspian x
3/22/2005 Shell Nigeria x 600
3/24/2005 Petrobras Brazil x 60
3/29/2005 Cnooc china 1900
3/29/2006 Unocal Canada 3000
3/29/2005 BP Angola 5844
4/7/2005 Apache Egypt 5296
4/7/2005 Total Yemen 5500
4/6/2005 Shell Brazil x 500
4/11/2005 DNO Yemen 4000
4/18/2005 Sudan Darfur x 500
4/18/2005 Aramco Saudi central 3300
4/20/2005 china x
4/25/2005 Petronas Malaysia x
4/24/2005 Regal Romainia x 684
4/24/2005 Vietsovpetro Vietnam 1500
4/25/2005 Nabrajah 3862
4/27/2005 Murphy Sabah 5580
4/27/2005 Andarko GOM x
4/27/2005 Petromina Sumatra 705
5/6/2005 ONGC Mumbai 2491
5/6/2005 ONGC Mumbai 2045
5/6/2005 Khuzestan x
5/10/2005 Aramco Saudi Arab 6000
5/11/2005 Petramina Indonesia 4800
5/11/2005 Petramina Indonesia 4255
5/13/2005 Norsk Hydro Fram 3150
5/18/2005 Parallel Petro Texas 160
5/24/2005 PTTEP Vietnam 13040
5/27/2005 Sipetrol Chile 1000
6/8/2005 Petro-tech Peru 10000
6/10/2005 Total Angola 4724
6/16/2005 japex nigeria 218
6/20/2005 Apache Egypt 1000
6/30/2005 SK Brazil x 50
7/1/2005 Murphy Oil Sabah x
7/3/2005 Egypt Nile Delta x 14
7/5/2005 Apache Egypt 2846
7/5/2005 JKX Ukraine 3450
8/2/2005 total Nigeria x 2
8/3/2005 Shell Brunei x
8/8/2005 No. 2 Drilling Mongolia x 900
8/11/2005 Sonangol BP x
8/15/2005 Belize Belize 500
8/19/2005 OMV Yemen 500
8/22/2005 Norsk Hydro Sea Troll x
8/22/2005 Yemen Shawba x
8/23/2005 Thai PTT Vietnam 9432
8/24/2005 Ecopetrol Colombia x 68
8/24/2005 CNPC china x
9/6/2005 NNDC Nigeria x
9/6/2005 Petrobras Brazil x
9/7/2005 CUU Long Vietnam 9100
9/12/2005 Beach Australia 1100
9/14/2005 Encana Brazil 1800
9/15/2005 Dana North Sea x
9/21/2005 Exxon Sakhalin x 560
9/22/2005 Hartleys W Australia x 100
9/30/2005 Norsk Hydro Stetind x 500
10/1/2005 Sonatrach/Eni Algeria x
10/7/2005 Neftegaz Sakhalin 1900
10/11/2005 Shell Sabah x
12/10/2005 CNOOC Bohai 179
10/11/2005 Vintage Yemen 1800
10/21/2005 sonagol/BP Angola 5956




280810 6563
3,074.87

BPD 3,075
2005 Disc total 9,638 ')

[pup55]

Here is my final count for 2005 discoveries. I estimate about 12.6 gb of discoveries last year, which is up about 25% from 2004.

The estimate I made last year was about 2gb higher than ASPO's estimate, so make whatever adjustments are necessary if you believe that number rather than some others.

The methodology is as follows:
a. Review the monthly postings of discoveries on Alexander's Oil and Gas. There may have been other announcements, but I consider them to be authoritative so I do not count it unless it shows up in there.
b. If the press release gives a specific test well volume, estimate that the field will produce like that on average for 30 years and include in the total. This is probably the source of the difference between me and ASPO, but until somebody tells me better, I will be consistent.
c. If the press release names a specific field, and says that the discoverer believes that X barrels of oil are in there, count that as part of the total.
d. If the press release names a specific field, but does not name a total, or if the press release says "there has been a discovery of X barrels of oil in some strange land" but does not mention a specific field, the discovery is not counted in the total. China is notorious for doing the latter. They commonly put out press releases that say "guess what, we disovered X gb of oil last year" without any detail on where it was.
e. One press release per discovery. Sometimes there are multiple press releases, and I try not to double count.

The size distribution: I count 4 discoveries of over 1 gb each, 8 discoveries of .5 to 1.0 gb, and the rest are little. No super giants this year (sorry). Do with this information what you will. Consumption last year was probably about 30 gb so replacement ratio was only about 40%

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'Test Well Announcements bpd
1/11/05 Petronas Niger 2450
1/11/05 Cairn Rajasthan 100,000
1/19/05 Niko Hazira 6000
1/24/05 Habanero Alberta 49
2/12/05 Sonagol/BP Angola 5330
2/15/05 Exxon Angola 5330
2/16/05 Shell Gabon 4000
2/16/05 Shell gabon 4000
2/18/05 Valkyries So Texas 168
2/18/05 Woodside mauritania 9150
2/18/05 Woodside Mauritania 12400
3/29/05 Cnooc china 1900
3/29/05 BP Angola 5844
4/7/05 Apache Egypt 5296
4/7/05 Total Yemen 5500
4/11/05 DNO Yemen 4000
4/18/05 Aramco Saudi central 3300
4/24/05 Vietsovpetro Vietnam 1500
4/25/05 Nabrajah 3862
4/27/05 Petromina Sumatra 705
4/27/05 Murphy Sabah 5580
5/6/05 ONGC Mumbai 2045
5/6/05 ONGC Mumbai 2491
5/10/05 Aramco Saudi Arab 6000
5/11/05 Petramina Indonesia 4255
5/11/05 Petramina Indonesia 4800
5/13/05 Norsk Hydro Fram 3150
5/18/05 Parallel Petro Texas 160
5/24/05 PTTEP Vietnam 13040
5/27/05 Sipetrol Chile 1000
6/8/05 Petro-tech Peru 10000
6/10/05 Total Angola 4724
6/16/05 japex nigeria 218
6/20/05 Apache Egypt 1000
7/5/05 Apache Egypt 2846
7/5/05 JKX Ukraine 3450
8/15/05 Belize Belize 500
8/19/05 OMV Yemen 500
8/23/05 Thai PTT Vietnam 9432
9/7/05 CUU Long Vietnam 9100
9/12/05 Beach Australia 1100
9/14/05 Encana Brazil 1800
10/7/05 Neftegaz Sakhalin 1900
10/11/05 Vintage Yemen 1800
10/21/05 sonagol/BP Angola 5956
11/1/05 assam company assam 588
11/7/05 repsol YPF Libya 4650
11/16/05 Assam Company Assam 375
11/19/05 CNOOC Bohai 770
11/22/05 PDC North Dakota 278
12/10/05 CNOOC Bohai 179
12/15/05 Occidental Peru 2400
12/20/05 CNOOC So Chi Sea 5000
12/20/05 Reliance India 5412
3/29/06 Unocal Canada 3000
12/5/06 Petrolifera Canada 3237

Total bpd 303,520
Total Reserves/Discoveries 3,323.55 mb

Field Discovery Announcements
1/21/05 Santos Indonesia 170
2/12/05 cheetah new guinea 1000
3/9/05 Iran Khuzestan 855
3/22/05 Shell Nigeria 600
3/24/05 Petrobras Brazil 60
4/6/05 Shell Brazil 500
4/18/05 Sudan Darfur 500
4/24/05 Regal Romainia 684
6/30/05 SK Brazil 50
7/3/05 Egypt Nile Delta 14
8/2/05 total Nigeria 2
8/8/05 No. 2 Drilling Mongolia 900
8/24/05 Ecopetrol Colombia 68
9/21/05 Exxon Sakhalin 560
9/22/05 Hartleys W Australia 100
9/30/05 Norsk Hydro Stetind 500
11/17/05 Iran Khuzestan 153
11/28/05 ENI Barents Sea 50
12/13/05 Tarim Xinjuang 100
12/16/05 Norsk Hydro Iran 1000
12/20/05 Nexen GOM 450
12/22/05 OMV Austria 10
12/29/05 Petrobras Brazil 1000

Field Discoveries Total 9,326

Total 2005 discoveries 12,650 mb')

[mekrob]

What would be the guess for why the sudden jump in discoveries in a trend of decreasing discoveries constantly? Better technology, higher prices, or more pressure (due to high prices)? Oil has jumped what? 50% in the past year but only a 25% increase in discoveries? Not great, but better than declining like usual.

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', 'W')hat would be the guess for why the sudden jump in discoveries in a trend of decreasing discoveries constantly? Better technology, higher prices, or more pressure (due to high prices)? Oil has jumped what? 50% in the past year but only a 25% increase in discoveries? Not great, but better than declining like usual.

[mekrob]

I wasn't saying they'd be in a straight line, just that the general trend for the past few decades has always been less and less. A 25% jump seems pretty high, but I'm not a petroleum historian.

Thanks, I wasn't sure quite how long it took to get projects under way and how slow the business is.

[khebab]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'I')f the press release announces a test well volume, I estimate the find by calculating the 30-year total at that rate.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'i')s it a standard approach? is it a reliable estimate

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

Out of curiousity, how do you account for those initial discovery volumes changing through time to much larger actual produced volumes?

[pup55]

I do not have any experience either way in comparing the initial test well to the volume of oil actually produced. All I am doing is tracking the announcements and making a really rough estimate. Maybe you can give us a rule of thumb to work by.

If I were putting out a press release, announcing the completion of a test well, I would be conservative, and understate the amount of oil I thought there was down there. I think this is why these announcements are worded so carefully. The issuers want to attract investors, and be optimistic, but if they grossly overstate the size of the find, they will get into trouble with the authorities such as the SEC.

I think the most entertaining ones are really scientific: "we drilled through an oil producing layer of X number of meters", for example. It's just a statement of fact, and says nothing about any estimate of the ultimate productivity etc. not to mention nothing about the width or length of the field, only the depth.

So for amateurs like us, who are we to say what is really happening?