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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Addicted to Oil Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Addicted to Oil

Postby Starvid » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 11:40:52

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Re: Conquering oil addiction

Postby thuja » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 12:26:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Oh no, I don't miss the point at all. Switching to conservation is a self-induced recession curtailing economic activity. The purchase of "excess stuff" is somebody's livelyhood. There is no "waste" or "excess" in a capitalistic system that employs people to sell that waste and excess.

The point that people miss is that we can't continue to do what we do and do it just less so.

[b]It's capitalism or a habitable planet -- you can't have both


I generally agree with you Monte although I would say that it is possible to have small scale capitalism with a very limited population that would go through natural boom and bust cycles without it eventually destroying the planet.

The planet has seen two phases of overwhelming human growth- one with the agricultural revolution and the second with the industrial revolution and its associated development of coal and then oil burning technologies. These are the two big picture developments that have led to potential ecocide.

Capitalism, if you want to call it that, has occured with pre-agrarian societies in the form of trade of goods and accumulation of wealth; even land ownership. These societies did not endager the health of the planet.

However, if what you're talking about is modern day globalised capitalism, its systems of wealth accumulation, interest and debt, along with the machines and power to harvest resource bases at unprecedented levels- I definitely agree its not tenable.

I do not believe we are going to be able to change this globalised capitalistic system until it no longer functions and we go through an unprecedented "bust", i.e. die-off.

But, on the small scale, we can pare down our own individual/family/community needs in preparation for this "bust". Sort of like a glutton who eyes the fact that the feast on the table is starting to dwindle so he slows down and eats a lot slower. The feast will still end and he will have to go through a long hungry spell, but he's preparing by watching what he eats.
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Re: Addicted to Oil

Postby dub_scratch » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 15:08:36

Image

Above is proof that fuel economy in the car fleet does not reduce oil use alone without curtailment of VMT.

Energy efficiency + Growth = Jevon's Paradox
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Re: Conquering oil addiction

Postby Revi » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 20:20:55

I think that dismantling the capitalist system is a bit too big a project for me. Therefore I am concentrating on things I can do, like use less oil.
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Re: Conquering oil addiction

Postby oilfreeandhappy » Fri 10 Feb 2006, 00:09:58

Good job, Levi! Despite my avatar, oil-free still eludes me. I like to proclaim that with an activist message on my back, while riding a bike though. If it encourages passing motorists to get on their bike, scale down or buy a hybrid; I figure it's doing its job.

The "locally grown" concept is a good one. I also like to bring my own containers and buy bulk.
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http://home.comcast.net/~oil_free_and_happy/
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Re: Conquering oil addiction

Postby MonteQuest » Fri 10 Feb 2006, 00:31:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'A')re you using capitalism or jevon's paradox as an excuse for not doing anything? Should we just lie on the ground and wait for the world to end? Efficiency doesn't hurt. You just use less. We are clever monkeys. We can figure this out! It just looks hopeless if you aren't willing to try.


I have spent the last 31 years of my life on the front lines of doing something about it. But I am realistic about viable options.

Under our current world paradigm and economic system, conservation and increased efficiency is almost meaningless to address our energy problems. This is not to say we shouldn't, but that our expectations for peak oil mitigation should not be very high, especially if we can't get everyone to do it. Hint hint... Chindia.

When we build our civilization around what the earth can sustainably supply and not upon what we demand, then my tune might change.

Sure, we can figure it out, but we won't accept the solutions as reasonable: Population reduction, restricted per capita energy consumption, a shift to renewables energies, and a continuously powering down of all human actvities for decades until we reach the most optimally sustainable equillibrium with our ecosystem.

No, we should not lie down, but we should embrace solutions that have some longevity.

Never happen, you say. Therein lies my inability to be sanguine about Peak oil. We will not go quietly into the dark night.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Conquering oil addiction

Postby MonteQuest » Fri 10 Feb 2006, 00:46:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')It's capitalism or a habitable planet -- you can't have both


Maybe - but what alternative to capitalism do you suggest?


Limited capitalism. Only allowing sustainable goods and services to be brought to market. No externalized costs. Pay as you go.

Environmental capacity (sustainable supply) would determine production, not demand.

Smacks of socialism, I know. But if it is the earth doing the dictating of limits and not man's ideology, then I am ok with that.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Conquering oil addiction

Postby Revi » Fri 10 Feb 2006, 10:33:01

I think we have a few more years to use the excess energy in fossil fuels to set ourselves up for a low energy future. For example: We have put solar hot water on our house now so that when peak oil hits we spend less to heat hot water. We probably won't be able to affford it later. The way I see it is like getting ready for a storm before it happens. Once the storm hits, forget it. All you can do is hunker down.

As I said before, I don't have the influence to take on the whole capitalist system. It might go down, but I hope that the solar panel manufacturers and smart capitalists don't go down with it! It'll be a lot worse to live in a world without some hot water! Our tank got to over 100 degrees yesterday, even though the temp outside didn't even get over 20 degrees farenheit! Thank god for that big fusion reactor 8 minutes away! They can't raise the price of sunlight!
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Why did "Herr Potus" mention oil addiction ?

Postby Revi » Mon 13 Feb 2006, 11:14:22

Have you read this article from The Daily Reconing? It sums up what we are probably all thinking. Here it is from 321 energy:

http://321energy.com/editorials/king/king021306.html
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Re: Why did "Herr Potus" mention oil addiction ?

Postby Revi » Mon 13 Feb 2006, 12:06:04

Thanks! That's a much better title for my poll post!
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Re: Why did "Herr Potus" mention oil addiction ?

Postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Mon 13 Feb 2006, 12:28:51

So he can set up a strawman later on and then claim he tried to do something, just like Blair is doing with nuclear.

"See, we tried to do something but <insert strawman> stopped us, it's their fault."

Old ones are always the best.
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Re: Why did "Herr Potus" mention oil addiction ?

Postby NordicHero » Mon 13 Feb 2006, 13:19:24

I think his handlers think we're getting near an oil shortage, and that was Bush's "I told you so", so nobody can say he didn't warn us.
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Re: Why did "Herr Potus" mention oil addiction ?

Postby Revi » Mon 13 Feb 2006, 14:35:23

Could Mr. Raintree be whispering in his ear?
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Re: Why did "Herr Potus" mention oil addiction ?

Postby ChicknLittle » Mon 13 Feb 2006, 15:28:50

I think it was directed at OPEC countries, playing on their insecurities and memories of what happened the last time demand dropped off in the US in the 70's (oversupply, decreased prices). His statement was quickly followed by Saudi promises to increase production, and requests that alternatives not be mentioned "because they discourage investment."
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Re: Why did "Herr Potus" mention oil addiction ?

Postby elroy » Mon 13 Feb 2006, 17:09:30

I'd say it's for the coming congress elections, people have noticed the oil prices have been on the rise.
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Oil? America's Addicted to Everything

Postby LadyRuby » Tue 14 Feb 2006, 08:17:29

Oil? America's addicted to everything!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il? America's addicted to everything!
And our denial is sabotaging the economy and markets
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch

Addicted to oil? Just oil? You're joking? No, we're a "nation of addicts," doing what addicts do best: Denying reality.

In denial the brain can rationalize anything. The more self-destructive an addict's behavior, the stronger their denial, louder their protests, arrogance, bravado, even optimism: "I'm fine, everything's under control!"

...

Flash forward. New addictions: credit cards, obesity, massive deficits, iPods, plasma HDTV's, McMansions, SUVs, outsourcing to India, buying plastic from China. Go deeper: We have a near-religious addiction to rationality, logic, data, numbers, stock quotes, productivity, interest rates, GDP, etc. Our brains gorge on an endless diet of numbers from cable's talking heads, online breaking news, print reports.

...

First: Economic modeling. ...

Second: Market forecasting. ...One commodity trader showed me how his models predicted his day-trading, "but I don't have a clue about next week."

We are a nation of addicts, in denial, and our mastery over the economy and markets is an illusion, crating a false sense of security. Wall Street, Washington and Corporate America are all addicted to computer models that minimize or eliminate unpredictable threatening variables: Global wars, pandemics, terrorist attacks on American soil, the very things that could do the most damage to the economy and markets are not included. Meanwhile, Main Street is focused narrowly on getting the next "fix."

Denial blinds us to many dangers. Like the coming Iranian Petro-Euro Bourse threatening the American dollar's position as the world's reserve currency, a threat potentially more catastrophic than a nuclear arsenal.

We deny it.

And recently, we learned of an even bigger threat: about World War III. ...

Get it! We have ideological fanatics on both sides, like two alcoholics itching for a bar fight. ... Both pray for an irrational first blow triggering the "End of Days," a WW III nuclear conflict between the world's greatest cultures.

We are a nation of addicts, in denial of so many threats external to our bubble world. Mentally we are at greater risk than with the irrational exuberance of 2000. Except this time the threat is global, systemic and potentially catastrophic, far outside the box of our mega-rational economic models and market forecasting systems. Soon your denial system may no longer work, reality will implode.

So please, be prepared for market losses far greater than the $8 trillion we lost between 2000 and 2002. Plan conservatively.

Remember, when any addict "hits bottom," the big thing they lose is their freedom ... the same holds true for an entire nation of addicts.
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Re: Why did "Herr Potus" mention oil addiction ?

Postby handforged » Tue 14 Feb 2006, 12:40:27

i think he said it because words are easier and cheaper than actions. its a whole lot easier to claim to be making an effort than to actually make one (see Hurricane Katrina federal response for details).

if bush was serious about trying he wouldn't have slashed farm funding in the budget releast a few days later. this was the classic political move of claiming to be working on solutions to the problems that affect the masses while franticly stuffing money into their own pockets.

but in defense of politicians, 99% of americans are not able mentally, physically, or financially able to even consider the most beneficial move towards energy independance: conservation. so they do the only thing that works without inconvieniencing the masses or destroying the system that gives them power: talk, promise, lie, and rob us blind.

so get your swimming gear on 'cause we are gonna have to ride this ship down, there is on other plan.
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Re: Why did "Herr Potus" mention oil addiction ?

Postby Dreamtwister » Tue 14 Feb 2006, 12:47:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('handforged', 'b')ut in defense of politicians, 99% of americans are not able mentally, physically, or financially able to even consider the most beneficial move towards energy independance: conservation.


And who's fault is that?

No quarter for the cleptocrats. They don't deserve your defense.
The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
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Re: Oil? America's Addicted to Everything

Postby ubercynicmeister » Tue 14 Feb 2006, 17:10:04

If the article said "the Entire Western World is Addicted to everything," it would be much closer to the reality.

Thanks for posting it, Lady ruby.
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"To Get Rich you have to:

*Get up early;

*Work Hard;

*Strike Oil"

J Paul Getty
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