by malcomatic_51 » Fri 27 Jan 2006, 08:40:36
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')he ruling class will be fine, they don't need to worry, so why should they? It is up to us, the regular guys, to deal with the situation. Nobody is going to save our butts for us.
I think this is the key to understanding why TPTB don't appear very worried about PO, although I strongly suspect the wisest elite have seen it coming for years.
Why would they be so complacent? It goes beyond what Ludi says. Look at how cheap oil has changed the world since the 1930s. Then, the rich were living on a different planet. Only they could fly, only they had really good cars, only they had really comfortable trains and ships, only they could visit the tropics, and only they could go on adventures to wild places.
Now, just about everybody who lives in an industrialised country can do all those things. So the rich have had to accept that with the great wealth of cheap oil has come a vast compromise in the privileges that were once theirs alone but now they have to share with the hoi-palloi masses.
The end of cheap oil will reverse all this. You can see that in the developing world, where motor traffic has largely vanished from many cities. The higher the price of oil goes, the higher the effect will climb through the heirarchy of prosperity until eventually even the middle classes of the wealthiest nations will be strongly affected. Who will largely escape? Those with their wealth in things that are real: land, natural resources (including renewable energy), gold, livestock and seedstock. The apparent financial wealth of the services industries will evaporate as PO bites hard.
My thinking is that once the process of regression goes so far, it will be irreversible, because it will destroy belief in "inevitable progress" and replace that with expectation of "inevitable decline". Our existing machine tool capital is largely made up of highly specialised designs that have limited versatility to be modified for a greater range of tasks (which will be necessary because PO will reverse specialisation of labour). This means the write-off of accumulated capital plant could be crippling, stacking the odds against recovery. Another point is that most robots and CNC machines are set up for the mass production of things like cars, trucks, aircraft, engines and white consumer durables, yet demand for these products will fail with PO.
Before you dismiss the psychological aspect of PO on expectations, bear in mind this interesting point: the Wright Brothers discovered how to make an aircraft contrallable, but they did it with their brains alone. There was nothing at all in their gliders that could not have been done by the Ancient Egyptians. wWat the Ancient Egyptians lacked was the capacity to revise dogma in the face of experience.
Now where have we seen that before?