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What Is All This Leading To?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: What Is All This Leading To?

Postby Jenab6 » Wed 25 Jan 2006, 14:39:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', '[')b]Omnitir,

One other thing to consider.

We currently can't/don't even use the space energy that bombards the earth every day for free in an economically viable way. Solar energy, more powerful than anything we can dream up thus far, plays almost no role whatsoever in our energy needs, and we don't pay anything for it. With this in mind, what makes you feel so certain that going to space, which costs money and burns up quite a bit of energy, is the answer to our prayers?

Replacing oil with solar power would require a solar panel array with an area (kept normal to the sun) the size of the state of Utah. And that's just for the steady state part of the system. In order to produce more solar panel as old panels age and fail, extra panel will be required for maintenance of itself and the rest. It's a sum of a convergent series, but it increases the area of the required solar panels operating at any given time.

And then there's the "overhead" or start up cost. I understand that it takes a lot of energy to make solar panels. Making enough solar panel to replace oil would probably cost us more energy than we can spend.

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Re: What Is All This Leading To?

Postby lakeweb » Wed 25 Jan 2006, 15:31:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jenab6', 'R')eplacing oil with solar power would require a solar panel array with an area (kept normal to the sun) the size of the state of Utah. And that's just for the steady state part of the system....


I have no idea where you got your numbers.

The little box in Arizona represents the solar area required at 30% to supply all our current demand. Grid and equivalent EV.

http://lakeweb.com/chris/solar.gif

AZ,NM fetch you 7.5 kwh/m^2/day for a two axis tracker.
At 30% efficiency that's 3.25E9 joules/m^2/year.

http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/old_data/ns ... ook/atlas/

Electrical and EV Transportation demand comes in at 24 exajoules a year.

http://eed.llnl.gov/flow/02flow.php

Divide and you have 7.4E9 m^2. Or 53 miles on a side.

Best, Dan.
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Re: What Is All This Leading To?

Postby grabby » Wed 25 Jan 2006, 22:45:47

what would a solar panel 53 miles on a side cost to produce?


___________-
part two:


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')he ruling class will be fine, they don't need to worry, so why should they? It is up to us, the regular guys, to deal with the situation. Nobody is going to save our butts for us.


Throughout history the trouble really started when the "regular guys" turned on the "ruler guys" that is the scenario to try and avoid.

the "ruler guys" never end up as good as the "regular" guys.
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Re: What Is All This Leading To?

Postby grabby » Wed 25 Jan 2006, 22:48:42

Corrected post , misread tribal and class...
Last edited by grabby on Wed 08 Feb 2006, 15:40:38, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What Is All This Leading To?

Postby Ludi » Wed 25 Jan 2006, 22:50:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', 'T')hroughout history the trouble really started when the "regular guys" turned on the "ruler guys" that is the scenario to try and avoid.

the "ruler guys" never end up as good as the "regular" guys.


I agree, we should just ignore them instead of trying to overthrow them.
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Re: What Is All This Leading To?

Postby Ludi » Wed 25 Jan 2006, 22:57:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DefiledEngine', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Thousands, possibly tens of thousands.


Can you name one?


There has only been one society without a ruling class.
The Israelites before David and saul their first kings were chosen..

otherwise it has just been a smattering of tribes with tribal chiefs.


That's just anthropologically false. Tribal societies do not have a ruling class. Most human societies have been tribal. Otherwise it has just been a smattering of civilizations, most of which have collapsed.
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Re: What Is All This Leading To?

Postby joewp » Wed 25 Jan 2006, 23:09:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'M')odest space development has the potential to solve virtually every single problem we face.


I always like to point out Eric Severeid's law at this time. “The major cause of problems are solutions.”

That's all, I just like to point that out.
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Re: What Is All This Leading To?

Postby JustinFrankl » Wed 25 Jan 2006, 23:26:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'M')odest space development has the potential to solve virtually every single problem we face.


I always like to point out Eric Severeid's law at this time. “The major cause of problems are solutions.”

That's all, I just like to point that out.

The following is attributed to Albert Einstein: "The problems that exist in the world today cannot be solved by the level of thinking that created them."
"We have seen the enemy, and he is us." -- Walt Kelly
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Re: What Is All This Leading To?

Postby DefiledEngine » Thu 26 Jan 2006, 00:52:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')That's just anthropologically false. Tribal societies do not have a ruling class. Most human societies have been tribal. Otherwise it has just been a smattering of civilizations, most of which have collapsed.


Sorry, but didn't those tribes you listed have "alpha-male" chieftains? What about shamans? Those sound like a class making decisions/rulings over the others. I'm at least pretty sure that's the case with the Cree and the Blackfoot.
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Re: What Is All This Leading To?

Postby JustinFrankl » Thu 26 Jan 2006, 12:20:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DefiledEngine', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')That's just anthropologically false. Tribal societies do not have a ruling class. Most human societies have been tribal. Otherwise it has just been a smattering of civilizations, most of which have collapsed.


Sorry, but didn't those tribes you listed have "alpha-male" chieftains? What about shamans? Those sound like a class making decisions/rulings over the others. I'm at least pretty sure that's the case with the Cree and the Blackfoot.

No. Most of the tribal chieftains weren't "rulers" in the way we understand the term. The cheiftain was primarily a leader only in times of battle and conflict, and had no special voice or power during peacetime. In most tribal societies, every adult has direct input into the structure of their culture.

Shamanism is another story entirely. It is more a calling than a position in society, and may be a way that tribal cultures deal with what Western medicine calls schizophrenia.
"We have seen the enemy, and he is us." -- Walt Kelly
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Re: What Is All This Leading To?

Postby Ludi » Thu 26 Jan 2006, 12:58:30

"Tribe: A political organizational term that refers to a group of people who share territory, language, cultural history, and usually some form of kinship relationship. Bands join together to form a tribe. Tribes usually did not live together year round because of supply concerns, but there are of course exceptions. Tribal levels do not usually have an official leader. Bands join together to celebrate something, recognize "groupness" like a family reunion, or deal with an external crisis. Temporary leaders will be elected because of their skills to deal with a particular situation, but they normally have no authority over anyone. They can suggest and are almost always listened to, but certainly don't have to be. Many times the federal government mistakenly assumed a tribal leader had authority when he did not. "

http://mil.citrus.cc.ca.us/cat1courses/ ... bulary.htm

I'd be happy to supply loads of additional references should you require them, however, I'm convinced you're capable of learning about anthropolgy on your own.
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Re: What Is All This Leading To?

Postby jdmartin » Thu 26 Jan 2006, 20:56:56

Hey Ludi,

I must digress from this thread for a moment to say that I read your explanation for your signature (doggie-dog), and I just gotta say that I love it. What could be better than a bunch of cuddly, wiggling puppies?
After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
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Re: What Is All This Leading To?

Postby malcomatic_51 » Fri 27 Jan 2006, 08:40:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')he ruling class will be fine, they don't need to worry, so why should they? It is up to us, the regular guys, to deal with the situation. Nobody is going to save our butts for us.


I think this is the key to understanding why TPTB don't appear very worried about PO, although I strongly suspect the wisest elite have seen it coming for years.

Why would they be so complacent? It goes beyond what Ludi says. Look at how cheap oil has changed the world since the 1930s. Then, the rich were living on a different planet. Only they could fly, only they had really good cars, only they had really comfortable trains and ships, only they could visit the tropics, and only they could go on adventures to wild places.

Now, just about everybody who lives in an industrialised country can do all those things. So the rich have had to accept that with the great wealth of cheap oil has come a vast compromise in the privileges that were once theirs alone but now they have to share with the hoi-palloi masses.

The end of cheap oil will reverse all this. You can see that in the developing world, where motor traffic has largely vanished from many cities. The higher the price of oil goes, the higher the effect will climb through the heirarchy of prosperity until eventually even the middle classes of the wealthiest nations will be strongly affected. Who will largely escape? Those with their wealth in things that are real: land, natural resources (including renewable energy), gold, livestock and seedstock. The apparent financial wealth of the services industries will evaporate as PO bites hard.

My thinking is that once the process of regression goes so far, it will be irreversible, because it will destroy belief in "inevitable progress" and replace that with expectation of "inevitable decline". Our existing machine tool capital is largely made up of highly specialised designs that have limited versatility to be modified for a greater range of tasks (which will be necessary because PO will reverse specialisation of labour). This means the write-off of accumulated capital plant could be crippling, stacking the odds against recovery. Another point is that most robots and CNC machines are set up for the mass production of things like cars, trucks, aircraft, engines and white consumer durables, yet demand for these products will fail with PO.

Before you dismiss the psychological aspect of PO on expectations, bear in mind this interesting point: the Wright Brothers discovered how to make an aircraft contrallable, but they did it with their brains alone. There was nothing at all in their gliders that could not have been done by the Ancient Egyptians. wWat the Ancient Egyptians lacked was the capacity to revise dogma in the face of experience.

Now where have we seen that before?
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Re: What Is All This Leading To?

Postby UnpreparedMF » Fri 27 Jan 2006, 16:07:30

So, are you saying that their dogma is being run over by our karma?
"Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius -- and a lot of courage -- to move in the opposite direction."

-Albert Einstein
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Re: What Is All This Leading To?

Postby savethehumans » Sat 04 Feb 2006, 07:27:19

Energy Bulletin had a link to an interesting guest editorial in The Roanoke Times. (Click on Feb. 4 Peak Oil, it's the first story there, called "What If Calamity Were Predictable?") This excerpt gave me pause, and seems to fit in with this thread:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ote here that while we're really good with technology, technology and energy are different things, and we can't create more energy with technology. The Hirsch Report, commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy in February 2005, states, "...without timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs will be unprecedented."

Our society is stumbling with obliviousness and nonchalance into a new and horrible epoch.

Selling impending scarcity to a complacent and entitled populace--when the Dow exceeds 11,000, Boeing just set a yearly record for airplane sales, and the stores and service stations are full--is as tough as selling an impending Category 5 hurricane to a sleeping "Big Easy." Yet, history has shown that when complex societies have collapsed, they have done so quickly and unexpectedly. Why would ours be immune or different?

It wouldn't, of course, and a quick collapse being imminent is this writer's, and my, fear. After all, New Orleans was just fine in the days before Katrina struck. Heck, it seemed, in those first hours after the storm passed, that disaster had been averted. And then, all hell broke loose.

In Tampa/St. Petersburg, Florida, some super thunderstorms came through a day ago. Some flooding, of course. But there was a report of 12 inches of rain in just a few short hours.

Catastrophe, it appears, needs no slo-mo intros to it's arrival. . . .
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Re: What Is All This Leading To?

Postby JAGUAR » Tue 07 Feb 2006, 23:30:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'd')uke3522 - Ok folks. I have been reading up on Kuwait oil reserves, Iran cutting production, troubles in Nigeria, and the Venezuelans that just plain don’t like us.


As addicted as the United States may be to oil, the oil producers, especially Saudi Arabia and Iran, are even more addicted to continue U.S. oil consumption. Cutting off oil to the global oil markets isn't exactly an option that the ruling regimes in these countries can face with equanimity. After all, it's only oil revenue that keeps the ruling families in power in much of this region and that funds the regimes in Saudi Arabia, Iran and Venezuela. :(
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Re: What Is All This Leading To?

Postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Wed 08 Feb 2006, 05:39:51

As addicted as the United States may be to oil, the oil producers, especially Saudi Arabia and Iran, are even more addicted to continue U.S. oil consumption.

Very true, which is the reason they are pumping like mad-men and are set to cause off the chart depletion rates. As you say I don't think they have a choice though.
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Re: What Is All This Leading To?

Postby pup55 » Wed 08 Feb 2006, 09:16:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s addicted as the United States may be to oil, the oil producers, especially Saudi Arabia and Iran, are even more addicted to continue U.S. oil consumption.


You never know....All of these crazy little countries have a self-destructive streak. That's what makes the whole situation interesting.
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