by GoIllini » Wed 01 Feb 2006, 22:37:49
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', 'Y')es, it is mainly a liquid fuel crisis. The main task will be to reorganize our way of life to one that minimizes the need for liquid fuels and move from oil to biodiesel, hydrogen, nuclear, or battery power for things like trucks, ships, farm machinery, dump trucks, construction vehicles, and aircraft. The main victims of PO will be suburbia, car culture and domestic air travel.
Can car culture and suburbia survive? We might have to give up our SUVs, but I definately see a need for culture where people have their personal automobiles. Americans enjoy freedom of movement.
In Chicago, we have one of the best commuter rail systems in the U.S. Trains run late maybe once a month, and then, it's usually less than by about 15 minutes. In general, if you live in one of the suburbs, you probably live less than 5 miles from a commuter train station. Electric cars can definitely handle travelling 5, 10, even 100 miles given current technology. And I wonder if we might have a transportation system where every interstate was connected to the grid. It probably would cost less to install than the actual road cost to build.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Uranium will peak too just in case you still think this is not a total energy crisis. Hydro-electric and wind are really are best long term bets but they won't be enough to save our economy in its current form. We are going to have to power down to a non-consumerist steady state economy.
Well, Uranium will peak during our lifetimes if we only get uranium from land and don't reprocess. But if Uranium prices ever exceed $250/kg, (note that 1 kg of U contains more energy in just the U-235 than four barrels of oil), various researchers have demonstrated that we can get it from the ocean. For comparison purposes, this would increase the cost of electricity from nuclear by about 1 cent/kwh. There's enough Uranium in the ocean to last us 6,000 years, and while Leeuwen has a point about the volume of water involved, scientists have demonstrated that all we need to collect the uranium is a special plastic which recovers about three to four times its energy content of uranium in 20 days (and is likely reusable) and a very gentle current somewhere in the ocean.
Additionally, we're getting ready to bury enough U-238 in Yucca Mountain, that, if it was converted into Pu-239 via existing technology in a breeder reactor, would be able to meet all of the U.S.'s energy needs, conservatively, for 100 years. Other industrialized countries are probably finding themselves in similar situations.