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Is Peak Oil just a liquid fuel crisis?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Is Peak Oil just a liquid fuel crisis?

Unread postby NeoPeasant » Tue 31 Jan 2006, 15:36:01

I don't think so. The scarcity and rising price of liquid petroleum and natural gas will inspire so much effort to substitute other energy sources that their prices will rise in lock-step with those of petroleum.

For instance, generating heat with electricity is a very simple technology. If natural gas rose to the price where it was cheaper to generate the same amount of heat with electricity, Private homeowners and Industry would begin to switch over almost immediately, straining electricity supplies and causing prices to rise. This is why electricity will never be cheaper than natural gas for the same energy content.

Those who imagine themselves post-peak using all the electricity they want at a nickel a kwh to recharge their cars are going to be very disappointed.
The battle to preserve our lifestyle has already been lost. The battle to preserve our lives is just beginning.
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Re: Is Peak Oil just a liquid fuel crisis?

Unread postby Wildwell » Tue 31 Jan 2006, 16:19:01

Having studied the whole subject to a greater extent, Peak oil is a liquid energy crisis BUT it's the tip of the iceberg. What we should be doing is reaching for sustainability and building a quality of life. 99% of what Montequest says I now agree with. Quite clearly China and India copying the current Western model is not going to work.
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Re: Is Peak Oil just a liquid fuel crisis?

Unread postby SHiFTY » Tue 31 Jan 2006, 17:13:28

I would imagine there will certainly be a lag between different forms of energy prices. People cannot swap their new SUV for an electric car immediately, maybe even over 10 years.

However I also think you underestimate the amount of demand elasticity in all forms of energy there is- a vast, vast number of car journeys are classed as discretionary, and a lot of industrial electricity use will be cut back in the event of recession.

If anything, it will be a long emergency. I am still hopeful that it will be a gradual transition into a more electric future, rather than some sort of collapse.
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Re: Is Peak Oil just a liquid fuel crisis?

Unread postby Odin » Tue 31 Jan 2006, 17:30:57

Yes, it is mainly a liquid fuel crisis. The main task will be to reorganize our way of life to one that minimizes the need for liquid fuels and move from oil to biodiesel, hydrogen, nuclear, or battery power for things like trucks, ships, farm machinery, dump trucks, construction vehicles, and aircraft. The main victims of PO will be suburbia, car culture and domestic air travel.
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Re: Is Peak Oil just a liquid fuel crisis?

Unread postby EnergySpin » Tue 31 Jan 2006, 17:56:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Odin', 'Y')es, it is mainly a liquid fuel crisis. The main task will be to reorganize our way of life to one that minimizes the need for liquid fuels and move from oil to biodiesel, hydrogen, nuclear, or battery power for things like trucks, ships, farm machinery, dump trucks, construction vehicles, and aircraft. The main victims of PO will be suburbia, car culture and domestic air travel.

Ovid you are clearly asking for it.

{off topic rant deleted by MQ}
Nice to see the mods resorting to censorship!
Last edited by EnergySpin on Thu 02 Feb 2006, 04:46:40, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is Peak Oil just a liquid fuel crisis?

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 31 Jan 2006, 18:35:04

Holy Super Straw Men, EnergySpin!
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Re: Is Peak Oil just a liquid fuel crisis?

Unread postby Richard » Tue 31 Jan 2006, 20:05:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('elroy', 'Y')ou can't mine electricity. Unless someone finds a way to capture lightning, then we're good.


You've obviously never seen "Back to the Future".
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Re: Is Peak Oil just a liquid fuel crisis?

Unread postby elroy » Tue 31 Jan 2006, 20:05:42

One flaw in your post. Electricity isn't an energy source, it's an energy product, usually generated by coal power plants or other fossile fuel burning plants. You can't mine electricity. Unless someone finds a way to capture lightning, then we're good.
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Re: Is Peak Oil just a liquid fuel crisis?

Unread postby ubercynicmeister » Tue 31 Jan 2006, 20:38:53

It is right now, but because of the lack of research nto a non-oil energy source, this Liquid-fuel crisis will become a full-blown Energy Crisis. Indeed, given the almost lotus-eating "who-cares?" attitude of most of our leaders - both in government AND Business - it is gunna do exactly that.

Ayn Rand's Revenge might be a more appropriate name for Peak Oil.
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Re: Is Peak Oil just a liquid fuel crisis?

Unread postby thuja » Tue 31 Jan 2006, 20:51:12

I'm so tired of hearing that this is a peak oil crisis. This is a peak energy crisis. Unless we replace the energy generated by liquid fuels and increase available energy with alternatives (nuke, coal, wind, etc.) than we are seeing "peak energy" around the corner. Fossil fuels aren't just powering cars- they're used to create electricity for industry, heat our homes and run our toaster ovens. Not only do you have to replace the energy lost in folssil fuels for all these functions, you have to offer an alternative that continues to keep up with demand growing year after year after year after...

Get it through your heads! This ain't peak oil...this is peak energy!
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Re: Is Peak Oil just a liquid fuel crisis?

Unread postby cube » Wed 01 Feb 2006, 00:58:29

It's kinda funny. When someone says:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak Oil is just a liquid fuel crisis.

That's like saying a heart attack is just when your heart stops working. err yeah I guess that's true but.....once that happens it's ALL downhill from there. :roll:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hose who imagine themselves post-peak using all the electricity they want at a nickel a kwh to recharge their cars are going to be very disappointed.
Bingo! All the new power plants that will need to be created to recharge all those electric cars would send the price of coal and natural gas thru the roof. Soon we'd have peak natural gas and peak coal. Then there would be only one option left. :-D

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Re: Is Peak Oil just a liquid fuel crisis?

Unread postby Novus » Wed 01 Feb 2006, 08:36:14

Uranium will peak too just in case you still think this is not a total energy crisis. Hydro-electric and wind are really are best long term bets but they won't be enough to save our economy in its current form. We are going to have to power down to a non-consumerist steady state economy.
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Re: Is Peak Oil just a liquid fuel crisis?

Unread postby Odin » Wed 01 Feb 2006, 12:54:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'U')ranium will peak too just in case you still think this is not a total energy crisis. Hydro-electric and wind are really are best long term bets but they won't be enough to save our economy in its current form. We are going to have to power down to a non-consumerist steady state economy.


We only need enough uranium and coal to last until we have fusion power plants.
"Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis." -Starvid

The 2nd Law of Thermodynamics only applies in a closed system; Earth is NOT a closed system.
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Re: Is Peak Oil just a liquid fuel crisis?

Unread postby Daculling » Wed 01 Feb 2006, 13:59:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Odin', '
')We only need enough uranium and coal to last until we have fusion power plants.


We only need chemical rockets until we have teleporter technology.

Not trying to make fun of you but... we are still not sure it's possible or how long it will take.
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Re: Is Peak Oil just a liquid fuel crisis?

Unread postby GoIllini » Wed 01 Feb 2006, 22:37:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', 'Y')es, it is mainly a liquid fuel crisis. The main task will be to reorganize our way of life to one that minimizes the need for liquid fuels and move from oil to biodiesel, hydrogen, nuclear, or battery power for things like trucks, ships, farm machinery, dump trucks, construction vehicles, and aircraft. The main victims of PO will be suburbia, car culture and domestic air travel.


Can car culture and suburbia survive? We might have to give up our SUVs, but I definately see a need for culture where people have their personal automobiles. Americans enjoy freedom of movement.

In Chicago, we have one of the best commuter rail systems in the U.S. Trains run late maybe once a month, and then, it's usually less than by about 15 minutes. In general, if you live in one of the suburbs, you probably live less than 5 miles from a commuter train station. Electric cars can definitely handle travelling 5, 10, even 100 miles given current technology. And I wonder if we might have a transportation system where every interstate was connected to the grid. It probably would cost less to install than the actual road cost to build.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Uranium will peak too just in case you still think this is not a total energy crisis. Hydro-electric and wind are really are best long term bets but they won't be enough to save our economy in its current form. We are going to have to power down to a non-consumerist steady state economy.

Well, Uranium will peak during our lifetimes if we only get uranium from land and don't reprocess. But if Uranium prices ever exceed $250/kg, (note that 1 kg of U contains more energy in just the U-235 than four barrels of oil), various researchers have demonstrated that we can get it from the ocean. For comparison purposes, this would increase the cost of electricity from nuclear by about 1 cent/kwh. There's enough Uranium in the ocean to last us 6,000 years, and while Leeuwen has a point about the volume of water involved, scientists have demonstrated that all we need to collect the uranium is a special plastic which recovers about three to four times its energy content of uranium in 20 days (and is likely reusable) and a very gentle current somewhere in the ocean.

Additionally, we're getting ready to bury enough U-238 in Yucca Mountain, that, if it was converted into Pu-239 via existing technology in a breeder reactor, would be able to meet all of the U.S.'s energy needs, conservatively, for 100 years. Other industrialized countries are probably finding themselves in similar situations.
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Re: Is Peak Oil just a liquid fuel crisis?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 02 Feb 2006, 02:35:13

No, peak oil is an economic crisis.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Is Peak Oil just a liquid fuel crisis?

Unread postby Sys1 » Thu 02 Feb 2006, 10:12:37

Since i heard about breeder reactors, i think there are some chances for mankind not to get necessary back to caves. Breeders could offer us infinite electricity. Doesn't mean everything else will be fine. Peak water, metals, lack of oil/gaz for manufactured goods and agriculture...
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Re: Is Peak Oil just a liquid fuel crisis?

Unread postby EnergySpin » Thu 02 Feb 2006, 11:22:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'S')ince i heard about breeder reactors, i think there are some chances for mankind not to get necessary back to caves. Breeders could offer us infinite electricity. Doesn't mean everything else will be fine. Peak water, metals, lack of oil/gaz for manufactured goods and agriculture...

Ok sys1:
A) The amount of oil that is used for feestock (plastics) is pretty small hence they will not kiss us goodbye soon
B) Alternative methods to manufacture them do exist ... starting from plant material (google the terms hydrocarbon economy)
C) Infinite electricity is infinite metals ....
D) Transportation is a rather interesting story: if the material aspect of the GenIV "delivers", then the thermal output of the nuclear plants (after they have generated electiricity) will be used to split water via heat (thermochemical cycle). One of the breeder reactors in the GenIV roadmap achieved such high temperatures in the 70s! i.e. we only have to make material that can withstand these temperatures for years rather than months. At the very least, an electric transportation network could free much of the oil we currenly use for agricultural machinery and even planes. Even the infamous tar sands may produce (3-5 million barrels a day) for planes and agricultural equipment around the globe.
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