[Wildwell]

Earth lacks the water, energy and agricultural land to allow China and India to attain Western living standards, a US think-tank has warned.

The Worldwatch Institute said the booming economies of China and India are "planetary powers that are shaping the global biosphere".

Its State of the World 2006 report said the two countries' high economic growth hid a reality of severe pollution.

It said the planet's resources could not keep pace with such growth.

"The world's ecological capacity is simply insufficient to satisfy the ambitions of China, India, Japan, Europe and the United States as well as the aspirations of the rest of the world in a sustainable way," the report added.

It said that if China and India were to consume as much resources per capita as Japan in 2030 "together they would require a full planet Earth to meet their needs", it said.

The institute's report said that in the next few years the choices China and India made could lead to political and economic instability, or they could usher in an age of better stewardship of resources and more efficient technology.

The reports said the US - which continues to consume more of the Earth's resources than any other country - needed to cooperate with China and India to help develop more environmentally friendly practices and technologies.

"China and India are positioned to leapfrog today's industrial powers and become world leaders in sustainable energy and agriculture within a decade," Worldwatch Institute president Christopher Flavin said.

"We were encouraged to find that a growing number of opinion leaders in China and India now recognise that the resource-intensive model for economic growth can't work in the 21st Century," he said.

China already has a solar-powered heating system which supplies hot water to 35 million homes, while India has pioneered a system bringing clean water from rainfall, the report said.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4604556.stm

[Gary]

Economics: (from the Greek <oikos> 'house' and <nomos> 'rule' meaning 'household management.' " (wikipedia)

If our world is our household, how well are we managing it?

[Wildwell]

The question is do China and India stay in the doldrums? Do markets switch to the new opportunities in Chindia leaving the rest of the world in the cold? Or do we all have to learn to share the diminishing resources or fight it out? Or perhaps wake up and realise this has all been a terrible mistake and get back to basics?

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', 'T')he question is do China and India stay in the doldrums? Do markets switch to the new opportunities in Chindia leaving the rest of the world in the cold? Or do we all have to learn to share the diminishing resources or fight it out? Or perhaps wake up and realise this has all been a terrible mistake and get back to basics?

[venky]

As an Indian, my first instinct on reading this was to say 'screw you'. Ofcourse I understand that resource constraints will prevent India and China from ever reaching current western standards of living without wrecking our planet. However, calls from the energy wasteful west on India and China to cut down their consumption will be met with outright rejection and hostility.

I kind of agree with Jack, we will not stop consuming unless we are compelled to.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('venky', 'A')s an Indian, my first instinct on reading this was to say 'screw you'. Ofcourse I understand that resource constraints will prevent India and China from ever reaching current western standards of living without wrecking our planet. However, calls from the energy wasteful west on India and China to cut down their consumption will be met with outright rejection and hostility.

I kind of agree with Jack, we will not stop consuming unless we are compelled to.

[venky]

Incase there is any misunderstanding, I just put forth what I believe to be the view of most Indians.

As for me, well, I'm a peaknik, a part time green etc, I recognize the need for sustainability and the end to the lifestyles, based on mass consumerism.

On the other hand, the current lifestyle for a majority of Indians (not the new middle class whose lifestyles are not that different from the West) is desperate, poverty stricken. The economic growth of the past couple of decades has for the first time brought prosperity and hope to large sections of the population. I accept the necessity that we need an end to growth for the world in general, but even I cannot accept a scenario in which the majority of Indians are left in their current state while the west continue's to enjoy its current lifestyle.

So I agree with the poster above, no nation will agree willingly to give up growth, so generally speaking we are screwed.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('venky', '.')..An Indian saying that only force will make them stop consuming. I've heard many Americans say that...

[Colorado-Valley]

I think for a lot of Westerners, the American Dream is becoming more and more hollow each year. We shop because we're bored, really.

Getting out and living and working in the natural world again in gardens, on farms, in simpler villages would probably be a breath of fresh air for most Americans, but we're so hypnotized by shopping and sports and the rat race that we can't even imagine doing something different.

I suppose we'll have to learn about the beauty of a simpler life the hard way. As Kunstler said, we'll just keep doing what we're doing until we can't and then we won't.

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '
')In a nutshell, the world is screwed.

[SHiFTY]

I am an optimist on this- I would like to believe that the industrialising economies of China and India can learn from the mistakes that the West has made along the way, and create a model of sustainable development that provides growth without environmental and social damage.

For instance not burning coal, fast trains instead of cars and high density living rather than sprawl. Nuclear, wind power can be 'clean' sources of energy- and the relentless obssession with material throwaway goods that the west has can be replaced with a more holistic view of what makes life worth living.

It is great that India is the world's biggest democracy and has a renowned education system, and it is also great that China is turning out vast numbers of engineers. Educated people will make better decisions for the future I believe.

[5]

wildwell, "China already has a solar-powered heating system which supplies hot water to 35 million homes, while India has pioneered a system bringing clean water from rainfall, the report said. "

This, to me, speaks volumes. China seems to be very concerned with long-term issues. While that might not make much difference in the end, the thinking IS different than America's, for good or bad. Different thinking leads to different choices. Considering their new-found love of the car, I can't see how those different choices will save the planet just yet, if at all, but it might be interesting to watch for entertainment value.

As far as it being official *now* that our econonmic system is failing the planet, well, just what does it TAKE to prove this system is fatally flawed, lol?? Those who believe this planet can "take it" will continue to believe so, those who don't, won't. Same old, same old -- hey, who needs "ecosystems", I'm on the network.

venky, just wanted to say that I got the point of your first post, and yeah -- yep, and yep again.

Kev-o -- can you link an article about that global warming delay? Very interesting...

[untothislast]

My first ever posting to these forums was entitled 'Peak Capitalism' - wherein I argued that the present economic model was unsustainable, and therefore doomed. In fact, the proposition is so obvious, I'm still not sure why I felt such a strong need to make the point.

Nevertheless, I got battered and abused by a slew of correspondents, some of whom (bizarrely) maintained that greed and conspicuous over-consumption were cherishable and desirable goals.

I do hope they'll be writing to the thinktank soon.

[shakespear1]

I agree

[code] "China already has a solar-powered heating system which supplies hot water to 35 million homes, while India has pioneered a system bringing clean water from rainfall, the report said. " [quote]

China and India are addressing the issue while US is wasting time and $$$. The $1.5 billion/wk spent on the WAR could do wonders in energizing the economy in a new direction in the US. GM and Ford COULD make money in this business instead of building SUV's which any casual visitor from outside of US could have told them had no chance of making it in the changing world. I am amazed isolated the mind set of the top management in these companies is in terms of understanding the future issues.

Apparently in Davos the issue of "Oil Demand" will be discussed. That is public program. In private I would think they will be discussing the SUPPLY issue.

Or should we send one of our own PO reps here ?

[elroy]

So we in the west have gained all this wealth through hundreds of years of opression, colonization, trade barriers, and now the third world is in poverty, desperate, and we tell em 'Sorry, you guys can't play this game with us. World simply isn't sufficient. ' Damn straight they'd say fuck you to us.

[ejacob3]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('elroy', 'S')o we in the west have gained all this wealth through hundreds of years of opression, colonization, trade barriers, and now the third world is in poverty, desperate, and we tell em 'Sorry, you guys can't play this game with us. World simply isn't sufficient. ' Damn straight they'd say fuck you to us.

[sventvkg]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('venky', 'A')s an Indian, my first instinct on reading this was to say 'screw you'. Ofcourse I understand that resource constraints will prevent India and China from ever reaching current western standards of living without wrecking our planet. However, calls from the energy wasteful west on India and China to cut down their consumption will be met with outright rejection and hostility.

I kind of agree with Jack, we will not stop consuming unless we are compelled to.

[Ludi]

It would hardly be fair for the West to say " screw you jack, I've got mine" and continue our own wasteful ways. If we want China and India to reduce consumption, we in the West must do it first.

Fat chance.

[Wildwell]

My thoughts is business will keeping shifting operations out there, because of the substantially lower cost base.

Effectively the west will be competing with an area of the world with less human rights, more corruption, less costs.

When oil gets expensive, Americans will be travelling in SUVs on roads that can only handle 4 or 5 thousand people an hour, powered by finite and increasingly expensive oil. Meanwhile the Chinese and Indians will be on their new rail lines shifting 100,000 people an hour (they are already building these) run on renewable energy.

You tell me who is going to win the end game?

I find it ironic we promote democracy and Hamas gets voted in.

We promote technology, which is then used against us.

We promote a lifestyle, which is unsustainable.

[thor]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', '
')We promote technology, which is then used against us.