[Gazzatrone]

Well I only offered this post as a means of simplifying what is a complex issue with varying degrees of subtlety.

Yes I will admit I'm no rocket science as I'm quite sure a lot of people aren't, but get Peak Oil. I had to do my own maths as stated in my original post and glad I did. But because I put in simple terms the immediacy of our situation does not make me any less understanding.

What my arguement is that sometimes people need to be hit on the head with a brick. Which is what simplicity is. As I tried to get across, PO is such a complex issue that sometimes the important message is a case of not being able to see the wood for the trees. It simply gets lost in information, which I will admit is so staggeringly daunting that it leaves you feeling that there are no immediate inroads.

This is an issue that affects every single Human being, and at times needs it to be explained as plain as day, because in the final analysis the outcome of Peak Oil will be even more brutally simplistic than a few simple equations to attempt to explain it.

[TheTurtle]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', ' ')It helps ease my doomerosity somewhat, and not just in a "misery loves company" or schadenfreude kind of way.

[frankthetank]

Great post. Sometimes its hard to put into words all the stuff i've learned on here over the time i've spent on this site. Using a simplistic method like this makes people grasp the concept a little better, even if they don't want to believe it. I'm to the point where i don't talk about PO because many people already think i'm nuts...

We'll see who's right in 10years.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', '
')By 2015 we will have used close to half of the worlds amount, thats in 10 years time.

I know this appears all very simplistic and will probably be scoffed at by those that have lived on the site for an age, but thats the whole point of simplicity. It workst because it is so brutal in its honesty.

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ubercynicmeister', '
')Just the other day, I went to one of the discussions here at these boards, which had some intellectuals (or supposed intellectuals more like) sneering about the Pope, and how "backwards" he is. All the time they were espousing the use of contraceptives & condoms. As I asked there: don't you know contraceptives & condoms are made from oil-derived chemicals? It would seem that the haste-to-sneer is one of the things that keeps newbies from coming here and making a full contribution. My own remarks were, as usual, ignored.

[Gazzatrone]

To anyone out there who may help in the simplicity by making it a little complicated but in terms of remaining oil, as stated not a genius with maths but......

If it takes 1 barrel of oil for every 3 recovered would that mean that of that 1000gb we can write off is it a 1/4 or 1/3 of that amount.

At 1/4 we have 750gb of oil for global use remaining

At 1/3 we have 666gb (how spooky is that) of oil for global use remaining

Either way the 400gb I predicted the World using in 10 years looks even more disastrous.

Somebody put me straight on this as this is what happens when I get caught up in numbers and statistics.

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', 'T')o anyone out there who may help in the simplicity by making it a little complicated but in terms of remaining oil, as stated not a genius with maths but......

If it takes 1 barrel of oil for every 3 recovered would that mean that of that 1000gb we can write off is it a 1/4 or 1/3 of that amount.

At 1/4 we have 750gb of oil for global use remaining

At 1/3 we have 666gb (how spooky is that) of oil for global use remaining

Either way the 400gb I predicted the World using in 10 years looks even more disastrous.

Somebody put me straight on this as this is what happens when I get caught up in numbers and statistics.

[Kod]

I watched that video too. It had a profound impact on the way I think. Being a Physics student myself and playing with exponential growth equations on a daily basis, you'd think I would have realized their implications immediately. But sometimes I need to have the obvious beaten into my face.

Applying these equations to GDP growth rates is a scary exercise. While oil consumption grows at a meager 1.6%, GDP growth rates of 4-5% are not uncommon. I've even heard that China's economy grew by 12.5% last year! If this statistic is reliable, it is frightening indeed! That gives them a doubling time of less than 6 years!

It is obvious to me now that such exponential growth is impossible to sustain in a world of finite resources. Eventually the growth must stop. It is inevitable. But even me, a master of the exponential equations, didn't realize the consequences until they were shoved right in my face.

On the bright side, I thank this video for showing me that my studies do carry some practical applications

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kod', '
')It is obvious to me now that such exponential growth is impossible to sustain in a world of finite resources.

[Gazzatrone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')This is an oversimplification. Economic growth represents the growth of money, and money is a human construction,

[galacticsurfer]

Ok
I tried the same thing in excel until all oil is gone(1,6% per year increase) and we run out of the 1000 Gigabarrels in 2032. If anything is unrecoverable I don't know.

Asid e from this topic- I always wonder why they keep building all those airplanes and airports. Those planes have lives of 30 years easy. Am I stupid or are the people in China and elsewhere real idiots investing billions in something which will be completely useless within its usable lifespan and probably sooner as oil will just be too damned expensive for such a luxury as mass aviation for vacations in the sun?

GB/YR TOTAL USED LEFT YEAR

30,00 1000 30 970 2006
30,48 1000 60 940 2007
30,97 1000 91 909 2008
31,46 1000 123 877 2009
31,97 1000 155 845 2010
32,48 1000 187 813 2011
33,00 1000 220 780 2012
33,53 1000 254 746 2013
34,06 1000 288 712 2014
34,61 1000 323 677 2015
35,16 1000 358 642 2016
35,72 1000 393 607 2017
36,29 1000 430 570 2018
36,88 1000 467 533 2019
37,47 1000 504 496 2020
38,07 1000 542 458 2021
38,67 1000 581 419 2022
39,29 1000 620 380 2023
39,92 1000 660 340 2024
40,56 1000 701 299 2025
41,21 1000 742 258 2026
41,87 1000 784 216 2027
42,54 1000 826 174 2028
43,22 1000 869 131 2029
43,91 1000 913 87 2030
44,61 1000 958 42 2031
45,33 1000 1003 -3 2032

My two bits

[Gazzatrone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('galacticsurfer', 'O')k
I tried the same thing in excel until all oil is gone(1,6% per year increase) and we run out of the 1000 Gigabarrels in 2032. If anything is unrecoverable I don't know.

[eastbay]

Chevron is right when they say it took 125 years to ignite the first half of the worlds oil. But they're very wrong about the second half. What they imply is that in 30 years the world may very well be out. There will always be isolated scraps here and there.

No Chevron, the second half of the worlds oil will take far longer to ignite.

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

"Am I stupid or are the people in China and elsewhere real idiots investing billions in something which will be completely useless within its usable lifespan"


No, you're not stupid, far from it.

I believe that the only explanation is that they really can't see past the end of their noses, and don't want to. I would respect them far more if they were honest about things, once it's gone it's gone. Actually thats' probably one of the reasons I accepted PO so early, when I was a kid my parents always used to say that to me when I got an ice-cream or chocolate bar, "Once it's gone it's gone, there's no more so eat it slowly." I never complained.

[Falconoffury]

The albert bartlett video just reinforces how little time we have left.

[grabby]

{topic merged by MQ}


I have read this site for a year and thought I got the gist, but for some reason I never actually listened to this guy (Dr Bartlett). {edited by MQ}
So I was bored and I listend to it.

obviously no one else,here, even the regulars have heard it.

IT IS A VERY IMPORTANT LECTURE!

math cannot be disputed, it says this:

get ready for a shock:

WHEN WE HIT PEAK OIL, WE THEN HAVE LESS THAN TEN YEARS LEFT BEFORE WE ARE COMPLETELY DRY!
ALL USED UP EVERY BIT

WEll, that is if we could be, but they just cant pump that fast so that guarantees severs shortages (1/2 the amount)

The key was the speach by CARTER when he said EVERY 10 YEARS we use MORE OIL THAN WE HAVE USED IN THE PAST TO THE HISTORY OF THE BEGINNING OOF THE WORLD.

Every ten years.

becasue every ten years use DOUBLES.

so when we hit peak, it is a guarantee in ten years we are dry.


now why can't we go to ethanol?

because we cannot produce in ten years twice the gallons of methanol or ethanol to equal all the oil we have used in the history of mankid...

T H I N K A B O U T T H I S ! ! !

you must listen to this lecture, it means trouble with a capital T

I though

Ok peak oil now we used half of our oil and now we have 30 years left!
WE HAVE THE SAME TIME AGAIN LEFT! OH OH OH NO! YO DONT!
NO!

What it means, no matter HOW MUCH OIL WE HAVE when we hit PEAK we have only ten years left then NO OIL AT ALL

that means in 15 years we are oilless completely.

this 30 year BS or 45 year BS cause they calculate at TODAYS rate is incorrect.

when we hit peak the max time we have is the doubling time.

10 years

period


I was shocked before at finding out 747's use 500 gallons to just idle to a runway, but this takes the cake.


the story was made of germs, one germ doubles every minute right?

there is a nice pop bottle a germ falls in it and it doubles every minute, 1 minute
5 minutes
20 minutes
30 minutes


now THINK ABIOUT THIS when is the bottle HALF FULL of germs?

well one minute before midnight it is HALF FULL
and two minutes before midnight it is 1/4 full
and three minutes before midnight it is 1/8 full

right?

the germs when they are 1/8 full (3 mins to midnight)
say:

"HEY! we got LOTS OF SPACE! 7/8 of our bottle is not even explored yet!
only 1/8 of our bottle is used!
we have YEARS!

well they have only one minute till they are one quarter full,

and then the other germs go
HEY we are getting a bit crowded, and then the next minute the bottle is HALF FULL! and they all go "HELP!".

THEY HAVE ONE MINUTE LEFT WHEN THEY ARE HALF USED UP!

This is the shocker.
1 minute till they run out of food.
YOU DO NOT SEE THE END unttil a minute before midnight.

So they use technology and search the world all over and find 3 more completely empty bottles

I mean 3 times the resources they ever had in their whole past history,
THREE NEW WORLDS!

so they say WOW we have three times as long to live now!

so right at MIDNIGHT all the germs just before they die migrate into the other bottle, 1/2 of them

WHEW DISAster averted! we now have many hours left! twice as long!

well what happens, in one minute more BOTH BOTTLES ARE FULL!
MY GOSH!

we have to migrate to the other two empty bottles!

so they do and now they have 4 half empty bottles!

WHEW we have 4 new worlds and we should last a long time!

well w2hat happens in only one minute?

ALL THE BOTTLES ARE FULL and they run out of food.

you see, even thoughthough the first germ took many many minutes (years) to half fill the bottl, once we noticed they were half full it is the end.


get it?

by the time you notice, it is late.


same with oil ONCE WE KNOW WE ARE HALF EMPTY you only have ten years if the rate is 7% growth.
if the growth rate is less than 7% it will be longer.

and if another planet just like earth floated by and we hooked up to it and ran gas pipelines to it, we would drain the whole planet in only 5 years!~

half a doubling time.



you have to listen to that mp3

this is really interesting.

ALRIGHT you say, we CANT keep doubleing...

AHA! that is true! but that means economic problems, for the only way to stop exponentil growth is decreased use.
anyway the war stars in less than 10 years dudes.

Now here is the fact that may make you worry if you understand the idea of exponential growth.



that onlly means one thing

if at the end of a doubling time if indeed there is any oil left AT ALL it can only be because we CUT AND USED LESS than 7% per year from todays utilization of our oil supply


our use will have to have been cut less than

there is some series of cuts ggonna happen in the next fewyears or we will all be short of oil.

listen to the lecture it is good

to supply the worlds oil supply NOW it would take 1 windmile 1 megawatt installed over every square yard of montana from border to border.
but that is not all

in ten years if our energy use grows at 7%, you will need two montanas of windmills and in 20 years you will need 4 montanas of windmills

so our use rate has to fall
.

[Comp_Lex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', 'y')ou have to listen to that mp3

[UIUCstudent01]

The 80's were not double the 70's.

The 90's were not double the 80's.

And, from what I've heard, we aren't just going to dry up in 10 years...

Look throught theoildrum.com

Oil production isn't like exponential growth.

[linlithgowoil]

its an interesting lecture that one. its a bit simplistic though, but of course its mathematics are faultless.

it doesnt strictly apply to oil of course, because it can only be extracted at a specific rate, so dont worry about there being no oil in 10 years time. extraction rates of oil are around about the highest theyll ever be, so the other half of the oil that remains will take quite a long while to use up - maybe even another century, because the tail end of production can go on for a good while due to the lower extraction rate.

some oil wells in texas, i understand, have been going for nigh on a century and will probably continue to produce a few barrels a day for decades yet.

so, the other 1000billion barrels will take quite a while to use up, and they might never be used up ever if some of the more darker scenarios occur.

also, people, though not massively dissimilar, are not quite as simplistic as bacteria. you'll note that the population growth of most rich nations now is actually negative. therefore, we dont just endlessly breed, unlike bacteria.

so - although the lecture is very entertaining and logical, i feel that humans and the world around us a lot more complex and that is why no one really knows what the frig is going to happen.

in conclusion then, i totally refute the idea that we'll have no oil left 10 years after peak. we'll still have a huge amount left - its just that we wont be able to slurp it out of the ground fast enough.

[Jake_old]

Stay calm

its only 10 years if consumption is growing at 7%

It isn't that at the moment (globally).