[Lora]

Bartlett is on NOW! 11:22PM EOM

[BitterSweetCrude]

WE ARE SAVED!

The citizens of this country will all tune in to see his speech, and tomorrow the cable news networks and mainstream commentators will all be talking about Peak Oil!

[BitterSweetCrude]

He is showing some charts on exponential growth and has commented how China is growing at 10% annually.

Now saying US has 2% of oil reserves, 8% of oil production, 5% of world population and 25% of world oil consumption (importing 2/3 of that).

We import 17% of the entire world's production.

Now he is saying that high ranking generals think told the president that this is a national security risk.

[Cyrus]

I'm curious to see how the oil marker reacts tommorrow.

[Leanan]

Thanks!

It's surprisingly shocking to see the graph of Hubbert's Peak on TV.

[BitterSweetCrude]

Says Saudis are interested in how we extract oil so quikly.

Talking about M. King Hubbard's bell curve and prediction of peak oil in the US. Looks like a 5 year old put this poster together, the heading "Peak Oil" looks glued on or something.

Now he is breaking apart US production. Showing how Texas produces quite a lot, and how even Alaska's production did not stop downslope. Says going into ANWAR "doesnt even matter" because its not going to come online for 10 years. He also thinks that Americans will think the problem is solved if we start drilling in ANWAR when thats not true.

Shows a graph of how we are close to the top of the global peak. He shows how even before the peak of the bell curve, there is a deficit between demand and production.

Makes comment on China again, now that they are #2 importer and increased imports quickly. Says India is on the way up too. Says 3rd world is industrializing very quickly and we need to help them do it more efficiently.

Shows a chart of discovery of oil grouped by 5 years intervals. Showing a sharp downslope. Says even if we find more oil it doesnt matter because large projects take so long to come online, "we cant escape the reality that the world produciton of oil will peak".

Next chart shows drilling more will not help. Shows that we drilled more wells in the 80s and still ran a defict of discovery because of Reagan's incentives given to oil explorers. Shows the industry is not drilling wells now because he thinks the industry knows there isnt much oil to find.

[Leanan]

Holy crap. This guy has really studied up. Now he's talking about energy density. I'm impressed. He's not the most compelling speaker, but he seems to know what he's talking about.

[BitterSweetCrude]

Talks about China again, how they are "scouring the world for oil". Makes reference to all of China's long term contracts with many countries for oil.

Talks about some pto oll done in India and China about how many people (esp in China) are aware of energy being an issue in the future.

Talks about how China is worried about US control of oceans and is increasing their long range navy. Says we have a huge deficit with China.

Next chart shows transition from wood to coal to oil and then how much more energy we have used over the past few hundred years. Without alternatives the "future is pretty grim" he says. Says alternatives much have energy density making comparisons to coal and oil over wood. Says 1 barrell of oil is equalent energy of 12 people working full time for 1 year (25000 man hours). We need to change the way we live he says if we dont have an alternative that is highly efficient.

Tar Sands, says they have poor energy efficiency because they are difficult to extract. Says Oil may go to $105 before Oil Shale/ Tar Sands will be attempted.

Says coal has 250 years "at no growth at current use rate"
At 1.1 % growth it will last 125 years
At 2% growth with liquified coal (loses efficiency to reduce pollution) it will last 50 years.

Says Nuclear is the only thing with high enough efficiency. 104 nuclear plants with 0 deaths. Fusion is "home free" if we can get it. Says the odds of getting fusion in time are pretty small, likens it to the odds of winning the lottery.

[BitterSweetCrude]

Talks about fission, says France get 80% of electricty for nuclear. Points to camera for some strange reason. I guess he is running out of time.

Renewable resources, wonders if they have potential.

Hydrogen is not an energy source he says. Says we get hydrogen from natural gas and it would be better to get it from nuclear. Says we have to buy time via conservation and efficiency.

Says we have to be a world leader. Plugs his website.

House adjourns until 10 AM tomorrow. OH NO WHAT WILL I DO WITHOUT LIVE VIDEO FEED FROM THE US HOUSE! I guess its time to get loaded.

[strider3700]

Thanks for the updates. We don't get that channel up north. So I wonder if this will drive up the price of oil or if it will be completely ignored. I'm still impressed this made it on the air at all.

[BitterSweetCrude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', 'T')hanks for the updates. We don't get that channel up north. So I wonder if this will drive up the price of oil or if it will be completely ignored. I'm still impressed this made it on the air at all.

[Lora]

Bartlett won't affect the markets, but don't fool yourself. A good number of smart money managers are fully aware of peak oil and are already positioning themselves to take advantage. The market is obviously already anticipating some of peak oil. See the price of uranium moving up.

[Ayoob]

From: Albert Bartlett [mailto:Albert.Bartlett@colorado.edu]

Dear Friends,

I have a paper about physicists and the silent lie (a term taken from Mark
Twain) that was published in Physics Today for July 2004. It points out how
physicists,

1) acknowledge that population growth is responsible for most of the energy problems that physicists like to address and solve.

2) perform competent and extensive analyses of many aspects of the energy problem.

3) When they list their recommended courses of action to solve energy
problems, they never list addressing population growth and size.

4) By failing to say the obvious, they are telling what Mark Twain called
"The Silent Lie."

I can mail copies of the paper along with the letters and responses it
generated. Just send me your address for regular mail.


ALBERT ALLEN BARTLETT
Professor Emeritus of Physics
University of Colorado
Boulder, Colorado, 80309-0390
Phones: Office, (303) 492-7016; Dept. (303) 492-6952
FAX: (303) 492-3352
Home: 2935 19th Street
Boulder, Colorado, 80304-2719
Phone: (303) 443-0595
E-Mail: Albert.Bartlett@Colorado.EDU

A one-hour videotape or DVD of Prof. Bartlett's talk
"Arithmetic, Population & Energy: Sustainability 101"
is available from
Herb Rodriguez
Information Technology Services
University of Colorado at Boulder 80309-0379
(303) 492-2253
Herb.Rodriguez@Colorado.EDU

ANNOUNCEMENT: NEW BOOK/DVD COMBINATION

"The Essential Exponential: For The Future Of Our Planet"
by Albert A. Bartlett

with Robert G. Fuller, Vicki L. Plano Clark & John Rogers

This is a book of reprints of Prof. Bartlett's papers on
exponential arithmetic, energy, population and sustainability.
Also included are major articles on resources
by M. King Hubbert and L. David Roper.

The book is an 8.5 x 11 inch paperback with 302 pages.

While supplies of the DVD last, a copy of the book and
a DVD of Bartlett's lecture, "Arithmetic, Population and Energy:
Sustainability 101," can be purchased for $30, and the
combination book + DVD is $20 for orders of four or more
combinations sent to one address.

Order from the:
Center for Science, Mathematics & Computer Education
251 Avery Hall, University of Nebraska
Lincoln, Nebraska, 68588-0131
(402) 472-9304: www.UNL.EDU/SciMath/

A SELF-EVIDENT TRUTH
If any fraction of the observed global warming
can be attributed to the activities of humans,
then this constitutes positive proof
that the human population, living as we do,
has exceeded the carrying capacity of the Earth.
THIS SITUATION IS NOT SUSTAINABLE!

[Blueberry]

Looking to send a link to the Albert Bartlett - Arithmetic, Population, and Energy video, does the site still have it?

Any help would be much appreciated.

[Blueberry]

bumpity, bump!

[zceb90]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Blueberry', 'L')ooking to send a link to the Albert Bartlett - Arithmetic, Population, and Energy video, does the site still have it?

Any help would be much appreciated.

[zceb90]

There's also earlier thread on this forum: Albert Bartlett Thread

[Blueberry]

Thank you, thank you!

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')The growth of population and the growth of rates of consumption cannot be sustained," Bartlett said. "It isn't debatable, unless you want to debate arithmetic."

[Raxozanne]

Yep, he sure tells it as it is.