[Graeme]

New study raises questions about sustainability of metal resources

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')esearchers studying supplies of copper, zinc and other metals have determined that these finite resources, even if recycled, may not meet the needs of the global population forever. According to the study, if all nations were to use the same services enjoyed in developed nations, even the full extraction of metals from the Earth's crust and extensive recycling programs may not meet future demand.

However, the researchers believe scarce metals, such as platinum, face depletion risks this century because of the lack of suitable substitutes in such devices as catalytic converters and hydrogen fuel cells. The researchers also found that for many metals, the average rate of usage per person continues to rise. As a result, the report says, even the more plentiful metals may face similar depletion risks in the future.

[Hegel]

Metals are still perceived as "infinte", because they can be "recycled". Unfortunately, Recycling metals is highly energy-intensive. Given the P.O.-scenario, recycling metals will turn-out to be a classy techno-fix.

Btw, my favourite metal is Cobalt. Any attempt to have a Fischer-Tropsch based economy will directly run into this limiting ressource. Have fun my pro-coal/shale/NG liquifying advocates with all those future oversized strip-mines and a insufficient amount of Cobalt-catalysts to keep up fuel production?

[shakespear1]

Hegel

Thanks for that interesting piece of information regarding Cobalt

I GOOGL'ed and found this

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'RAO Norilsk Nickel is the world's largest company producing nickel, cobalt and platinum group metals. Norilsk Nickel holds a monopoly in Russia for the production of nickel-electrolyte, copper-electrolyte, metallic cobalt, cobalt concentrate and metals of the platinum group. RAO Norilsk Nickel owns 100 percent shares of five daughter companies: Norilsk mining and metal combine (Norilsk); Severonickel combine (Monchegorsk, Murmansk Region); GMK Pechenganickel (Zapolyarnykh, Murmansk Region); Olenegorsky Mechanical Plant (Olenegorsk, Murmansk Region); and Gipronickel Institute (St-Petersburg).')

Cobalt

Amazing where all this leads. Hint: Mr. Putin's back yard

Just amazing

[Hegel]

You got it Shakespear1.

[Devil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hegel', 'M')etals are still perceived as "infinte", because they can be "recycled". Unfortunately, Recycling metals is highly energy-intensive. Given the P.O.-scenario, recycling metals will turn-out to be a classy techno-fix.

[EnergySpin]

By, the way ...
Someone/something screwed up with the announcement of the study found at the NSF web site. Specifically, the publication date is wrong; the current issue of PNAS (Jan 17th) does not feature it.
Furthermore, I could not find any PNAS papers by Thomas Graedel (supposedly one of the co-authors of that study) in the last 10 years.


@Hegel
There was a pretty article by Tufts a few months ago concerning the metal recycling, energy use and GHGs that kind of deconstructs your position regarding the sensibility of recycling in situations of decreasing energy use.
http://www.tufts.edu/tuftsrecycles/energy.htm

I will have to research this further, but IIRC the soil in certain landdfills have a much higher metal concentration than the ores the metal originated from in the first place
It seems that recycling will become the most prolific "mining" industry in the future.

[Hegel]

@Devil

Recycling Iron from old steel cars is one thing, but recycling rare metals from industrial components is something else.

I understand from your CV, available on your personal homepage, that you have lived and worked in Switzerland. I presume you are fluent in German Language, therefor I invite you to read the technical paper below dealing with recycling of industrial catalysts used in the chemical industry, as an example. Paper deals with all aspects and is a good introduction into this field.

Stand der Verwertung von verbrauchten Katalysatoren aus der chemischen Industrie sowie Einflussfaktoren zur Verbesserung der Kreislaufführung

The energy consumption of Recycling is raising, because of the wide range of high-tech consumer products containing a mixture of tiny quantities of rare and very rare metals. Just think the about recycling modern-day batteries, high-tech electronical goods, chemical fluids etc.

Concerning mining operations, yes indeed mining Iron ore is more energy-intensive than converting Iron from used steel cars. However Recycling yleld-back ratios aren't always 100%. In order to fill this gap and satisfy annual demand, you have to keep up mining. Teufelskreislauf ...

I hope this clarifies my standpoint. If not, I invite you to discuss this matter by Private Message.

[waegari]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hegel', ' ')Concerning mining operations, yes indeed mining Iron ore is more energy-intensive than converting Iron from used steel cars. However Recycling yleld-back ratios aren't always 100%. In order to fill this gap and satisfy annual demand, you have to keep up mining. Teufelskreislauf ...

[Devil]

I'm afraid your assumption is incorrect. I lived and worked for 35 years in Welschschweiz and I consider myself as bilingual French/English but my knowledge of German is very poor. Sorry

In my message, I did say $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')This statement needs a large lump of qualification.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', '
')It seems that recycling will become the most prolific "mining" industry in the future.

[Hegel]

@Devil and EnergySpin

I think I got you confused with the term "energy-intensive". I didn't mean recycling metals from used/spent products needs more energy during its process than mining a ore-rock and processing it to high-grade ore. There's no doubt about it that mining industry is an energy-guzzling monster.

What I meant is the additional net energy consumption that arises each time a recycle process is completed on the same unit of metals. It's unlikely to generate enough thermal and electrical energy to recycle future demand of metals by "renewables" when the mining industry stops operating due to uneconomical geological conditions. That's when P.O. consequences really kick in. Then we have to rely fully on recycling metals to 100% to keep teh status-quo up or face metal ressource-lags affecting all metal depended branches of our global society ...

Concerning Cobalt catalysts. Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis needs Cobalt catalysts to de-sulphurise the coal/shale feed economical. Iron-catalysts quickly wear down under more than normal athmospheric pressure while Cobalt-catalysts can be operated with higher pressure.

With that in mind, Cobalt becomes the limiting ressource for synthesised fuel production from coal/oil/natural gas which in turn limits/hinders recycling in general due to expected fuel shortages affecting the transportation/distribution systems.

@Ludi

De-polymerising used plastic isn't economical. Overhere in Germany we have a mandatory Recycling-System for plastics. Most of these polymeric plastics collected and seperated are usually burnt to heat smelters or purification plants and refuse incineration plants. Recycle it to fuel is certainly an energy sink ...

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hegel', '@')Devil and EnergySpin

What I meant is the additional net energy consumption that arises each time a recycle process is completed on the same unit of metals. It's unlikely to generate enough thermal and electrical energy to recycle future demand of metals by "renewables" when the mining industry stops operating due to uneconomical geological conditions. That's when P.O. consequences really kick in. Then we have to rely fully on recycling metals to 100% to keep teh status-quo up or face metal ressource-lags affecting all metal depended branches of our global society ...

[Hegel]

@EnergySpin

As a pessimist, I can't share your optimism concerning nuclear energy. I don't expect the number of nuclear plants grow spectacularly closing the expected energy gap in a timely fashion. Instead I do expect an all-out attempt to substitute petroleum refined products, distillates, lubricants and waxes by liquifying coal/shale oil/natural gas. It's the elegantest option modern-day societies has got in store to keep up current motorized transportation with-out radically replacing it. Ok, we are going to strip-mine in mind-boggling proportions and eventually boost CO2-emissions, but we haven't got any viable alternatives with similiar positive attributes left. Therefor I expect an additional 400 Cobalt-hungry FT plants will be build from today till 2025-2030.



If there will be new scientific break-throughs in reactor technology/design, it'd surely better the energy-outlook. I'm for it.

[Starvid]

No matter what you think about recycling of metals (and I think Devil is right, he almost always is), you have to go back and look at one very basic peak oil fact.

Peak oil is not peak energy. Peak oil is peak oil.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

Hence peak oil will not have a major effect on any recycling process which do not consume relatively large amounts of oil.

[waegari]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', '
')And there are a few concentrated sources of metal at the sea bottom (Metaliferous Oxides) which could be mined with the right mix of ROV/AOVs.

[Hegel]

@Stardavid

I do not liken Peak-Oil to Peak-Energy. I do liken Peak-Oil to Peak-of petroleum based transportation which in turn artificially limits all depended operations.

[Hegel]

@waegari

Your approach to explain metals as limiting ressources is more efficient than mine

[waegari]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hegel', '@')EnergySpin

As a pessimist, I can't share your optimism concerning nuclear energy. I don't expect the number of nuclear plants grow spectacularly closing the expected energy gap in a timely fashion.

[waegari]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hegel', '@')waegari

Your approach to explain metals as limiting ressources is more efficient than mine

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hegel', '@')Stardavid

I do not liken Peak-Oil to Peak-Energy. I do liken Peak-Oil to Peak-of petroleum based transportation which in turn artificially limits all depended operations.