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Simple questions for doomers

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Re: Simple questions for doomers

Unread postby miniTAX » Thu 19 Jan 2006, 17:55:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')An infrastructure is more than a technology just as a technology is more than a process. Just because something can be done does not imply that we have the time, money, political will, materials, talent, and land to get it done. We will not develop the manufacturing facilities, distribution lines, and delivery systems for these replacements before oil peaks. Hirsch suggests the resulting shortages will be staggering and preclude continuing development.

What I mean by "hydrogen liquid" was hydrogen-to-liquid replacement. In another words it will not be possible to replace our liquid fuels ICE fleet with hydrogen ICE or hydrogen fuel cell. Same problem-- (at the very least) no time to ramp up.


[smilie=director.gif] I repeat an infrastructure for coal-> liquid -> cars already exists = gas stations. Andh setting up a 100 something coal to oil conversion plants is no more difficult than setting up refinery plants which is done every God's day all over the world. And do you know the earth coil reserve ?

In Germany, people already use bio-diesel with NO engine modification. In Brasil, people run ethanol made from sugar canes fuelled cars.

So if need be (I insist IF), plants will be set up without you knowing that, busy that you are sitting here predicting Peak Oil day.
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Re: Simple questions for doomers

Unread postby Aaron » Thu 19 Jan 2006, 18:08:59

But isn't this all just a symptom, of a bigger disease?

:)
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: Simple questions for doomers

Unread postby Daryl » Thu 19 Jan 2006, 18:12:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')An infrastructure is more than a technology just as a technology is more than a process. Just because something can be done does not imply that we have the time, money, political will, materials, talent, and land to get it done. We will not develop the manufacturing facilities, distribution lines, and delivery systems for these replacements before oil peaks. Hirsch suggests the resulting shortages will be staggering and preclude continuing development.


Much of the doomer worldview depends on this highly suspect argument. i.e. not having enough oil to build nuclear power plants, as if when oil peaks, all oil, commodities, expertise etc. vanish instantly. Depletion only means that oil will probably be more expensive. (Some argue the price may rise and fall erratically as we gyrate between alternatinig periods of demand destruction and supply shortages) Even so, oil is only one input into economic activity, albeit an important one. Doomernonics is the least reliable part of the Doomerolgy.

Hardcore doomers are extreme ecologists, who advocate preemptive die-off, a concept I'm still struggling with.
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Re: Simple questions for doomers

Unread postby miniTAX » Thu 19 Jan 2006, 18:26:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', '
')Hardcore doomers are extreme ecologists, who advocate preemptive die-off, a concept I'm still struggling with.

If so, they must have some serious rationale problem with nuclear plants which produce no CO2, plants that they fight some years ago :-D
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Re: Simple questions for doomers

Unread postby coyote » Thu 19 Jan 2006, 18:28:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Typhoon', '1'). Do you deny that we can greatly expand the use of nuclear power and renewable energy?

We can expand them, but slowly, and with limits. There is some question about the economics of nuclear power:

BBC

...and ethanol:

Can farms yield fuel and feed the world?

...and arguments about renewables has raged ad infinitum in other threads. Wind, tidal, biodeisel, ethanol from switchgrass, solar -- all these have potential but require time and hydrocarbons to build, and yield a ridiculously small amount of energy compared to oil and gas.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Typhoon', '2'). Do you deny that these solutions are cheap enough to replace the use of oil?

To completely replace, at a much lower net energy yield? Yes. Absolutely.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Typhoon', '3'). Do you deny that the resource for these forms of energy is, for all intents and purposes, unlimited?

Nope, no denial there. They are, for all intents and purposes, unlimited. The issue isn't availability, it's the capability to harvest.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Typhoon', '4'). Do you deny that electric automobiles are viable (not to mention fuel cells)?

Sure, they're viable. But electricity is not a fuel (energy source). It's an energy carrier, high quality but inefficient. To make electicity, you first need a fuel. Hence the problem.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Typhoon', 'T')he main issue would be making the transition quickly enough.

Bingo.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Typhoon', 'L')et's say, however, that we're peaking now. It might get painful, but society needn't collapse.
I sure hope you're right. But I certainly don't think you've proven your case. It's the case I tried desperately to prove to myself. After a whole lot of thorough research, I've failed too. If Peak happened right now, today, I have serious questions that we'd be able to ramp up enough power to feed everybody -- especially with converging crises of Peak Oil, soil erosion, water table depletion, desertification, etc., not to mention first-world greed and inertia. However, I'm not a scientist. Maybe someone will come up with something.
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Re: Simple questions for doomers

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 19 Jan 2006, 18:38:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'I')f Peak happened right now, today, I have serious questions that we'd be able to ramp up enough power to feed everybody -- especially with converging crises of Peak Oil, soil erosion, water table depletion, desertification, etc., not to mention first-world greed and inertia. However, I'm not a scientist. Maybe someone will come up with something.


Transition to local economies w/local food production, which requires much less in the way of transportation. processing, and storage, the bulk of energy used is in the food industry infrastructure, not in the production of food itself.

Something has been come up with (mmm, that's a phrase) but nobody is much interested.
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Re: Simple questions for doomers

Unread postby NeoPeasant » Thu 19 Jan 2006, 18:44:20

A transition of society away from the recent phenomena of automobile dependency is not doom, and those who predict it will happen and maybe even wish for it are not doomers.
Civilization managed 9.9 of the last 10 millenia just fine without cars.
The battle to preserve our lifestyle has already been lost. The battle to preserve our lives is just beginning.
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Re: Simple questions for doomers

Unread postby TonyPrep » Thu 19 Jan 2006, 18:45:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('miniTAX', 'A')nd do you know the earth coil reserve?
Do you? Please factor in growth and increased use for the coal to liquids process. Apparently, Roscoe Bartlett claims US coal would last 5 years, if these things are factored in.

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Re: Simple questions for doomers

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 19 Jan 2006, 18:54:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Typhoon', '1'). Do you deny that we can greatly expand the use of nuclear power and renewable energy?

We can expand them, but slowly, and with limits. There is some question about the economics of nuclear power:

BBC



Interesting article, from the stats given it appears the general population of the UK sees a mixed future as a reasonable scenario. Good for them, they have a chance after all.

I also find it funny that these claims about the poor economics of fission are spouted in the UK when the French on the other end of the chunnel are reaping the economic benefits of an 80% fission baseload grid.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Simple questions for doomers

Unread postby crapattack » Thu 19 Jan 2006, 18:56:42

Bravo NeoPeasant. Couldn't agree more :)
Didn't the human race survive for thousands of years before oil and electricity? I think the cornys are just basically afraid, and that's ok. But in their fear they are denying reality and searching for anything they can to save them, no matter how delusional, and keep the status quo. This is also completely normal predictable human behaviour. Drowning victims do the same thing.
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Re: Simple questions for doomers

Unread postby miniTAX » Thu 19 Jan 2006, 19:01:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('miniTAX', 'A')nd do you know the earth coil reserve?
Do you? Please factor in growth and increased use for the coal to liquids process. Apparently, Roscoe Bartlett claims US coal would last 5 years, if these things are factored in.


First some pieces of information:
- Energy consumption is not only in cars. It's also, even a majority in heating and power plants in which case there is no need for a coal->liquid conversion.
- If an American consumes as much energy as an European, America, which uses 25% of world oil would greatly reduce it's total oil requirement, even with growth.
- China has an energy efficiency of 1/5 of Japan. Its increase in energy use may be offset by better efficiency, which not only will reduce its energy bill, but also made its skies clearer.

And NO, I don't know the global coal reserve, I only know estimates which is at the 2004 level of consumption about ... 500 years (conservative figure).
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Re: Simple questions for doomers

Unread postby mjpete » Thu 19 Jan 2006, 19:08:24

A good book for anyone interested in Peak Oil is "Collapse: How Societies choose to Fail or Succeed" by Jared Diamond. Although this book does not specifically address peak oil, it has a lot to say about how socities collapse or are able to maintain themselves. Looking at this through the lens of peak oil can be very interesting. I still have not decided whether or not it made me more optimistic or less.
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Re: Simple questions for doomers

Unread postby crapattack » Thu 19 Jan 2006, 19:11:03

Typhoon,
1. Do you deny that we can greatly expand the use of nuclear power and renewable energy?

Nuclear power? Yes, I deny it. We simply don't have the time or the money or the resources. Renewables? We do have the time and the resources to provide individual families with small solutions that can help them transition. Large scale renewables have as many problems as nuke for tool up, but I believe are more worthy of investment due to their safety, ecological, economic and toxic profiles.

2. Do you deny that these solutions are cheap enough to replace the use of oil?

Large scale solar and wind are more expensive than nuke right now but this gap is rapidly diminishing and when you take into account all the subsidies for insurance, maintanence, cost overruns, cleanup, and waste management inherent with nuke, I would argue it is cheaper and can just get more so.

3. Do you deny that the resource for these forms of energy is, for all intents and purposes, unlimited?

Yes, it is. Uranium is limited so are the resources for renewables. Renewables are temporary transitional solutions.

4. Do you deny that electric automobiles are viable (not to mention fuel cells)?

Yes, I deny it. Totally not viable. It would take a massive switch over and 30 - 40years, see Hirsh report. Not to mention excellerating peak by using up resources to accomplish the switch.

5. If you answered "no" to all of the above, do you deny that the issue of peak oil can easily be resolved?

Peak oil can not be easily resolved. In fact it won't be resolved at all despite a lot of wishful thinking and handwringing and we will envitably decline. The issue is how we manage that decline.
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Re: Simple questions for doomers

Unread postby miniTAX » Thu 19 Jan 2006, 19:21:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mjpete', 'A') good book for anyone interested in Peak Oil is "Collapse: How Societies choose to Fail or Succeed" by Jared Diamond. Although this book does not specifically address peak oil, it has a lot to say about how socities collapse or are able to maintain themselves. Looking at this through the lens of peak oil can be very interesting. I still have not decided whether or not it made me more optimistic or less.


Yeah, good book, with historical examples.
It makes us more humble as to predicting the future.
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Re: Simple questions for doomers

Unread postby Seadragon » Thu 19 Jan 2006, 19:27:28

That book made me less optimistic (even though Diamond tried hard at the end to be hopeful, it wasn't convincing to me, at least) because it kicked the chair out from under the idea that contemporary Western society is "special." Then peak oil told me that the only reason we think we're special is because we've had "special" access to "special" energy for a brief time in history.
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Re: Simple questions for doomers

Unread postby miniTAX » Thu 19 Jan 2006, 19:33:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Seadragon', 'T')hen peak oil told me that the only reason we think we're special is because we've had "special" access to "special" energy for a brief time in history.

Peak Oil forgot to tell we're are special ALSO because we, 21st century humans have largescale democracy, modern medicine, widespread literacy, unprecedented technology, the Internet and so on...

Maybe it conveniently forgot all that to make its cause more vocal.
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Re: Simple questions for doomers

Unread postby Seadragon » Thu 19 Jan 2006, 19:45:32

Well, that makes me feel better, until I remember that none of those things will keep us from collapsing when we use up/destroy our environment, which we seem to be in the process of doing right now, and quite sucessfully at that.
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Re: Simple questions for doomers

Unread postby miniTAX » Thu 19 Jan 2006, 20:06:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('miniTAX', 'A')nd do you know the earth coil reserve ?
Let me guess. It is a secret cornucopian energy source that that lives like a snake coiled inside the earth?

8O 8O Your ability to guess and predict what things are all about is AMAZING :-D

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') predicted nothing. Nor does Hirsch. But this is what he and I know. It will take 20 years to build the alternative infrastructure necessary just to mitigate for an expected (and very optomistic) 2% decline rate in petroleum. If we start closer to peak, or the decline rate is greater than 2%, the economic and social reprecussion are severe.

As severe as the 1987, 1991, 2000, 2002 financial market crashes ?

Wow, frightening ! So I must be thinking of making sugar and water reserves then. Thanks so much Peak Oil for the warning :-D :-D
Last edited by miniTAX on Thu 19 Jan 2006, 20:24:41, edited 1 time in total.
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