by zoidberg » Mon 16 Jan 2006, 22:49:53
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'O')kay, evrybody is saying that can't happen. The US has all of this superior weaponry. It has this tremendous nuclear umbrella. It has an incredible industrial capability. And never mind its ability to carry out logistical support.
So, the question is not how per se, except that how might actually play a role in what comes after, but what will be the consequences if the US is defeated?
There are probably two scenarios by which this could take place. The first is nuclear defeat. That involves a lot of nukes being thrown around in retaliation, doesn't it?
The second is probably the scariest for the Ameri-jingos. What if the US is defeated conventionally? Again, forget whether this is possible, except that how might have a bearing on what comes after. How might be a terrible strategic blunder on the battlefield or betrayal by an ally that leads to a weakness that is exploited by the enemy to success, see it can happen. Talk about what it would mean should it happen.
Well lets say Israel launches air and missle strikes to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran responds by launching a co-ordinated offensive with the biggest Shi-ite militias and the Sunni insurgency and attacks every American base(kinda like Tet I guess). We can assume some of the millions of Shiite pilgrims are Iranian military as well, and join in the attack, supporting it with good weapons. Simulataneously Iran throws its most mobile units to attack key American positions in Iraq. Some might fall(Especially if the US sends some planes to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities as well). Many others would be stranded, except for air. (Which may be easier to cut than you'd think. Big cargo planes must present quite a target with good AA missles). American troops must be fairly well dispersed in dealing with the insurgency. Thousands could die, many thousands wounded and captured.
At this point America may recover enough to push Iran out of Iraq, but maybe not if they lose an aircraft carrier in the straits of Hormuz. This unambiguous defeat would certainly spell the end of the Bush Adminstration - the next guy to be elected would certainly be the guy promising to rescue America from this defeat.(ie someone scary). A large loss of American prestige and diplomatic clout would follow, but America's been losing that anyways. America may abandon some of her more far flung outposts and signal that any attempt to capitalize on her defeat will result in nuclear retaliation. (Again not a terribly new idea.)
All in all, nothing terribly dramatic. After all its not like America lost control of Texas or something. But nonsense about "indispensible nation" and champion of freedom crap would stop. America would step down a touch and take her place among the world's nations. Not sitting ontop of them.
And of course the US would blow up everything in the middle east, barring nuclear weapons. It may also be assumed hundreds of thousands of civilians would die, as any humanitarian pretense would evaporate in a serious struggle.