[WebHubbleTelescope]

UK North Sea model
The only way I could get the model to work is if I put a strong extraction increase near the peak after 1995. Up until that point the extraction rate was constant apart from some perturbations due to the Piper Alpha platform disaster.


Steady extraction/depletion rate of 10%..


Add rate increases.


What you end up getting. Bottom line: nothing by 2020. maybe even nothing by 2010 if they increase the extraction rate or make no new discoveries.

[Wildwell]

http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/interviews/615

There's an interview here

When you here someone this is highly qualified on this subject and who has prepared a report saying

"This problem is truly frightening. This problem is like nothing that I have ever seen in my lifetime, and the more you think about it and the more you look at the numbers, the more uneasy any observer gets. It's so easy to sound alarmist, and I fear that part of what I'm saying may sound alarmist, but there simply is no question that the risks here are beyond anything that any of us have ever dealt with. And the risks to our economies and our civilization are enormous."

It makes the hairs on your neck stand on end.

[aldente]

An excellent interview, thanks for the link Wildwell. First it starts the way one expects, in a manner explaining the issue to newcommers (yawn) however, there are moments and elements built in Hirschs language that hit you right on the head, reminding one that PeakOil is a reality!

Now, tell me someone here that I am the only one going through this process: The rational mind grasps the concept within the shortest time and without any question, one could even refer to Peak Oil as to completely simplistic and basic math. However, due to the lack of interest in our fellow human beings to even "look" at possible future related issues and consequences of our day to day activities part of us gives in as well.

To me this is what Hirsch contemplates in a rational manner. He blames nobody and yet "gets it". As I keep pointing out, even on this board there are hardly more than 20 members at any given time online and I watch it since two years. (scroll down here to see how small the crowd really is: http://www.peakoil.com/modules.php?name=Forums
What is it that keeps this crowd "in check"?

Would things change if Peak Oil would be widely recoginzed as the ultimate katalytic process to what there is to come?

[The_Virginian]

Ok so his point is:
A) curve graphs hide the declines by evening out the line.
And
B) Many countries experiance 3-13% decline just one year post peak.
Thus----> There may not be a long peak period of some stability, and look for it to get ugly quickly post peak.

I am not sure, we are talking about a whole planet to exploit. Who is not to say that smaller less valuble finds can't keep production up within 5% of peak for 2-3 years. YES it will cause a mini -price shock(S?)....

It's no yawn, and it may be helpful to those who are intrested.
Albente, To answer your question YES, things would be diffrent.
However, Most people are NOT INTERESTED in Peak Oil simply because it is easier to deny reality, or dream of a Wonder Solution, than to face your whole life changing...and there is nothing a person can really do to stop it (maybe delay, but not stop).

Powerless, it is easier to beleive IEA report, or some rumer on "Oil" Shale than it is to beleive starvation may be on societies heels.

In short most people are SHEEP, not leaders,...the leaders know... It may stroke our ego's to say so, but we are the Ghee, the rest are the intellectual skim milk of the world.

[Armageddon]

[quote="Leanan"]I think that steep decline is typical of underwater oil fields such as the North Sea.

Several oil industry insiders hang out at The Oil Drum, and they said because costs are extremely high for deepwater, it's in the company's interest to pump out the oil as fast as possible. So they do, which produces a high, sharp peak, followed by a steep decline.[/quote

we in the oil industry call this method, ' pump and dump' because of the high cost of extraction

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')I am not sure, we are talking about a whole planet to exploit. Who is not to say that smaller less valuble finds can't keep production up within 5% of peak for 2-3 years.

[Seadragon]

That audio link Wildwell posted is about the scariest thing I've heard recently. Hirsch is worse than Kunstler, simply because he's so careful and cautious, yet the things he talks about are absolutely chilling. A 6-8% worldwide decline would devastate the world's economy.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', 'h')ttp://www.globalpublicmedia.com/interviews/615

There's an interview here

When you here someone this is highly qualified on this subject and who has prepared a report saying

"This problem is truly frightening. This problem is like nothing that I have ever seen in my lifetime, and the more you think about it and the more you look at the numbers, the more uneasy any observer gets. It's so easy to sound alarmist, and I fear that part of what I'm saying may sound alarmist, but there simply is no question that the risks here are beyond anything that any of us have ever dealt with. And the risks to our economies and our civilization are enormous."

It makes the hairs on your neck stand on end.

[Leanan]

I'd love a transcript if there is one. I'm on a workstation with no sound card.

[turmoil]

well I don't have a transcript but I do have a link to the 91 page report.

http://www.hilltoplancers.org/stories/hirsch0502.pdf

[backstop]

I note that this highly credible and very cogent report was

a/. written for the US DOD, and

b/. was called "Shaping the Peak."


Had it been called, say, "The Shape of the Peak", then it would not be yet another co-incidence to add to the supposed multiple co-incidences of 5 years of US foreign policy consistently raising tension in the oil markets and thus driving up the oil-price.

So who exactly is shaping the peak - Geology, Economics or Politicians ?

regards,

Backstop

[Revi]

Interesting to hear Hirsh speak about it! The original report, about mitigating the effects of peak oil is scary. The only thing I don't agree with is the idea of keeping our present vehicle fleet going with coal liquification. Why do we need to get around so badly that we need to burn the planet up? What do we really need? We need to eat, heat our houses and make enough industrial products to eat and heat our houses. We don't need to keep all the lights on at all hours of the night. We really don't need to drive around in individual 6000 pound steel boxes every time we want to get something. There are lots of other ways to exist. Humans are clever. We survived for over 8000 years without any fossil fuels. Granted there are more of us, so we'll have to live a different lifestyle, but we have some renewables that they didn't have. Solar energy hits every surface of this planet at 1000 watts per square meter. Why not tap into that big fusion reactor that delivers to your house?

I have a friend who is very concious of the whole saving energy thing. She says that they have only used 15 gallons of oil a month this winter.
They are heating stews on the woodstove and drying clothes by it. They have cut their electricity over 20%. We can adapt. It's painful, but it can be done. We cut our fossil fuel use by half since learning about peak oil, with no pain whatsoever. I think we can all do that. Hirsh didn't even mention efficiency. You can save huge amounts of energy through efficiency without even feeling it. Alternatives may not be able to generate enough power to keep big cities running, but they may be unsustainable anyway. I think we have got to start taking Hirsh's recommendations seriously.

[Revi]

Reading Hirsh's report it seems that they are trying to keep the whole complex system running by substituting other fuels. It's not possible. We do need to reinvent our economy. I think Lovins and people advocating a solar economy have a better chance given the lower energy reality we will have to deal with sooner or later. We'll become sustainable eventually. I'd prefer to live on a quarter of present energy, but have a house lit with LEDs and use solar hot water, heat with a woodstove and get around on electric transportation. We do this now, with no hardship. I do have to cut some wood, but I like doing it.

[thorn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'R')eading Hirsh's report it seems that they are trying to keep the whole complex system running by substituting other fuels. It's not possible. We do need to reinvent our economy. I think Lovins and people advocating a solar economy have a better chance given the lower energy reality we will have to deal with sooner or later.

[thorn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')
And it would not be possible in our suburban world. Roughly, it takes a 10 acre woodlot to heat a home with wood.

[thorn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ongressman Roscoe Bartlett along with Dr. Robert L. Hirsch will be the speakers at the second monthly Energy Conversation that will take place on Monday, April 24.

Energy: A Conversation About Our National Addiction
An Inter Agency Learning Opportunity

R. James Woolsey

Energy, Security and the Long War of the 21st Century
Monday, March 27, 2006 6:00 to 8:30 pm
Doubletree Hotel, 300 Army Navy Dr, Crystal City, VA

The DoD Under Secretary for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics and the Office of Force Transformation are pleased to invite you to attend the first of a monthly series on "Energy: A Conversation About Our National Addiction."

Energy is now seen as a national issue. As President Bush said in his State of the Union address, only by applying "the talent and technology of America," can the nation really begin to grapple with the fundamental issues that underlay our national addiction to oil. The Department of Defense is the single largest buyer of fuel in the US (1.7%) and therefore has an opportunity to help direct an effort towards energy efficiency, conservation and cost reduction.

It is fair to say, that we, as a nation, are energy illiterate. Probably less than 5 percent of the public understands that it "takes energy to get energy." The Energy Conversation series will bring high-level attention to this overarching national energy issue by providing a forum to engage senior leaders, academics and researchers, both inside and outside of government. The intent is to learn about all the good things that are already going on in both government and industry that might address these issues and to provoke new thinking.

Why is the DoD hosting this series? Just as the Defense Department played a critical role in forging the information revolution in past decades, so can the Department play a similar critical role in fueling the energy revolution in coming decades. Remember we are all players in addressing the efficiency, conservation and cost reduction of energy. And there are NO SILVER BULLETS. Come learn with us.

Future sessions: April 24 Peak Oil Cong Roscoe Bartlett
Mitzi M Wertheim wertheim@cna.org
Dr. Robert Hirsch, SAIC 703-824-2271
May 22 & June 19 TBD
Space is limited so please RSVP with your name, title, institutional
affiliation, and contact information to energy@cna.org. Please share this with others you think might be interested.

[Starvid]

James Woolsey, Bartlett and Hirsch!

It can't go wrong!