[Revi]

2006 feels like the calm before the storm.

What I would really like to do is to build a super insulated earth bermed solar house. That would be real security. Less than 1000 sq.ft. Dug into the hillside and very low energy bills, if any at all. Small is beautiful.

Do I have time before the hard times come?

[khebab]

I believe that 2006-2007 will be relatively quiet years and oil prices should stay within the current price range $55-$70. We have a good visibility on the new projects that are coming online for the next two years. The wildcard is of course demand and in particular from China and India. Worldwide we can expect a demand growth around 2%. In the short term I'm more concerned by the NG situation which has more impact on the industry and energy sectors. Expensive NG will put more pressure on the coal market where demand is rising strongly since 2000 (Nobody have noticed but coal prices are slowly increasing).

The next two years are really test years. With oil around $60 for a long period of time, we should see signs of a transition toward alternatives and more efficient vehicles. If we fail to do so, it means that market alone as a driving force for a transition is not enough and we will not be ready to handle the right side of the Hubbert curve.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gt1370a', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'S')o based on The Efficient Market Theory we should expect gold to be $495, the euro to be $1.1885, crude to be $58.25, the DJIA to be 10.805 and housing prices to be approximately what they are today. They may not be in one year's time, in which case there is money to be made being a market contrarian and betting that your inside knowledge and skill as an investor is better than everyone else's?

[MrBill]

Not that drilling in the AARNWR was the answer, but increasing fuel standards and tougher enforcement might have bought another few more years and started to inform citizens about why they need to conserve fuel? Oh well, another missed chance. Another year closer to the end game.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Senate decision yesterday not to allow oil drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge marks the latest failure of lawmakers to form a consensus on a strategy to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil.

Congress has been unable to agree to the two most significant steps analysts cite for addressing the issue: allowing more domestic drilling and increasing automobile mileage requirements.