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Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby crapattack » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 07:40:50

Very interesting post kochevnik, and it does give one pause. I do remember reading Nietzsche's views on hope while I was in University, and had forgotten them of late. Of course, it's a message not likely to be well received in the Prozac society where we're all supposed to think happy thoughts and hope for the best.

It also brings to mind the Buddhist view that desire is the root of all suffering. Desire leads to attachment and attachment to sticky messes (ha ha). Fear and desire are closely linked, of course. On the question of motivation, I think fear is actually more motivating than hope as I think people do most things because they are afraid not to have the outcomes they desire. Stay with me here.

When you understand this in the context of consumerism, that is why the acquiring of the objects doesn't seem fulfilling. She doesn't want the purse so much as she doesn't want to not have the purse. We just have his need to acquire more and more to fill the void, but it never does get satisfied. And the joy in the acquired objects is so fleeting, we just move on to the new thing. It totally makes sense that we're in this whole mess as a culture. We went completely off the rails and marketing (making us fear ourselves without the objects they made us want - i.e.: deodorant) has a lot to do with it. Marketing is literally the business of manufacturing fear and hope. Fear about what the problem is, and hope it can be solved. The only thing you need to do is buy the crap they are foisting on you. I wonder what good 'ol Nietzsche would have to say about it all. Given our economies are so thoroughly based on the delicate play of fear and hope, I think he'd argue we've become completely evil.
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby abbcampbell » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 09:31:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crapattack', 'T')he thing about optimism is you never know if it's reality or wish fulfillment. Despite vast amounts of evidence to the contrary there will always be people who just want everything to turn out ok and believe by some miracle of modern teeth whitening it will.



Quite true, actually.

Of course, the same can be true of pessimism. You never know if it's reality until it happens. So, let's look at the comparative results of responsible unjustified optimism and unjustified pessimism. I clarify it because irresponsible actions can come of either.

Suppose the world is unduely optimistic, and follows the advice of folks like Dr. Goodstein, Matt Simmons, Robert Hirsch, etc., and we do something to try to mitigate the effects...and it doesn't work, the world collapses anyway, and we've wasted our efforts...

Suppose the world, however, is unduly pessimistic, and doesn't try to mitigate when it could have worked...the world collapses and we missed an opportunity...

Now, for some of us who are "addicted" not to our cars, but to modern medicine to keep us alive, the options are giving up and succumbing to whatever diseases/disorders can no longer be kept in check after the collapse, giving up and killing ourselves now in relative comfort, or not giving up and doing what we can to try to save ourselves and the however many billion other folks stand to gain from the mitigation.

If you try, you may not succeed. If you don't try, you're guaranteed not to succeed. It's that simple. Now look at our "Peak Oil Pundits." How many of them are suggesting a course of action to try to mitigate, and how many are saying we need to give up on large chunks of the population? I'm no expert in energy. These guys are...that's why we listen to them when they say that peak oil is imminent, right? So why not listen to them when they say trying to mitigate is worthwhile?
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby VinceG_gst1 » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 10:06:19

excellent post!
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby foodnotlawns » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 12:20:29

Consumerism is really the root of the problem. It's a lazy way to get to a place called "Contentment," and the irony is that you never get there.

Suppose Contentment is a mountain peak, and there is a trolley car that appears to go there (but never gets there) and there is a rough mountain trail to get there (and you really do get there if you take the trail).

So most people ride the trolley -- forever.

When I'm not slaving at the office, I can say that I am Content -- truly Content, in the Buddhist sense, or like Goethe's Faust said to the Devil, "If I am ever satisfied, take me to Hell right then." If I had made that deal, I'd have been whisked away a long time ago.

There are two things that make me Content. Farm work with hand tools, along with the processing aspect (making beer, making cheese) with friends and family. I have noticed that doing garden work by hand stimulates the mind. Last fall I was planting garlic with my daughter, and she started asking all these theological questions. I am an atheist myself, but I let her think what she wants to think.

So a girl on her bus was insisting that God created us, so she asked, "Well, who created God? And what was there before God? When did it all begin? What was there before there was nothing there?" I was like, "OK, is there some philosopher hotline out there? Because I can't answer these questions."

There was something about dibbling holes to plant garlic cloves under the autumn New England sun that just got that 7 year old brain going. I've seen thsi phenomenon more than once. Another time we discussed consumerism and why myself and mommy have to work so much, and she said, "So they try to get you to buy stuff at Kohl's and Walmart that you don't need to make you work more hours?" Exactly.

Now that's contentment.

The other thing that makes me deeply contented is playing the violin. I am certainly not a "pro" I took it up as an adult, but was lucky enough to take lessons for about a year with a woman who really knew how to teach, and understood how to play. She had gone to the heights of classical string playing, but then she branched into Eastern European folk music and arabic music, playing those exotic Arabic instruments like the yayli tambur. I found her because I like that kind of music too, and it has been my dream to play it -- I love teh harmonic minor.

anyway, I stopped playi8ng for 2 years, and assumed it was over. I was going to spend the rest of my life farming and waiting for Global Dieoff. Then I picked up the violin again, and I still had the skills that the woman had taught me. Hadn't forgot a thing, in fact I played better.

And I discovered that now I know how to interpret the music -- to do more than just play accurate notes. I discovered how to put little tiny rests in between the notes, to make it sound like real music, instead of "sawing on strings." It was a moment of pure ecstasy.

I know this was a rather personal post, but I think there's something powerful in here. I found Contentment! I don't need to spend money to be happy! In fact, doign things like gardening on weekends actually saves money.

So that's how I escaped the hell of Consumerism.
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby abbcampbell » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 14:06:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('foodnotlawns', 'C')onsumerism is really the root of the problem. It's a lazy way to get to a place called "Contentment," and the irony is that you never get there.
...I know this was a rather personal post, but I think there's something powerful in here. I found Contentment! I don't need to spend money to be happy! In fact, doign things like gardening on weekends actually saves money.

So that's how I escaped the hell of Consumerism.



Superb post!

The only thing I'd dispute is your second line. If consumerism truly were a way to get contentment, there would be a lot more content people in the world. The trouble is, it isn't a true path to contentment...rather it's a viscious feedforward cycle...a drug which you no longer enjoy, but continue taking just to avoid the withdrawal.

Your means of contentment won't work for everyone...but it doesn't have to. Each person, though, must learn to find their own road to internal peace. Congratulations on finding yours!
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby crapattack » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 16:18:03

The "Guest" post was me, forgot to login.
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby crapattack_gst1 » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 16:22:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f you try, you may not succeed. If you don't try, you're guaranteed not to succeed. It's that simple. Now look at our "Peak Oil Pundits." How many of them are suggesting a course of action to try to mitigate, and how many are saying we need to give up on large chunks of the population? I'm no expert in energy. These guys are...that's why we listen to them when they say that peak oil is imminent, right? So why not listen to them when they say trying to mitigate is worthwhile?


I see your point, but it is all about action, as kochevnik suggests in is very provocative post. You are assuming that the only two courses of action are to try to mitigate or to do nothing. I believe that mitigation is worthwhile if it has a reasonable chance of succeeding, but it is a massive misallocation of energy if it has very little chance and can actually do some harm and if it directs people away from putting their energies into preparation. Action taken to prepare is not doing nothing and may in the long run lead to survival, whereas most mitigation schemes I have heard seem to me a vain desire to continue in the same course from which all the problems began. Not only this, but few have any realistic 'real world' chance of succeeding when you take all the facts into account.

abbcampbell given your circumstances it is natural you would want to try mitigation at all costs because quite literally your life is at stake. Most optimists do have a motive for their belief that something/anything will save them because they believe it must. Your hope in this case may be evil, in the Nietzsche sense, in that it directs you and others you may convince, away from preparation. I would also try to 'hedge your bets' and plan for the worst, as this also seems prudent. You've no doubt thought of this and perhaps it's not possible for you to store your medications or have other options. The future may have very poor outcomes for people with disabilities, but perhaps your action is best spent trying to make some preparations work. I also have a desire to see mitigation succeed, but that is not going to prevent me telling all my friends about PO and from trying to prepare. I'd rather be wrong than dead.
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby 0mar » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 16:28:50

My advice for people asking about peakoil?

Get a good 5.56x45 rifle, lots of ammo and aim high.
Joseph Stalin
"It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything. "
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby crapattack » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 16:47:53

Omar said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y advice for people asking about peakoil?

Get a good 5.56x45 rifle, lots of ammo and aim high.


I'd rather get a crossbow - I can make arrows - and they're damn quiet. Don't blow apart the meat quite so much and you don't get the powder taste.
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby Mesuge » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 17:01:19

Crossbows are sexy but only short range. Another problem is that their contemporary space age materials won't allow for wood or any diy arrows..
Everything is too tightly computed for the advanced materials.
The only option is to get 100% natural material 'retro crossbow' someone certainly makes them check out the web..
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby crapattack » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 17:04:38

foodnotlawns wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
') I found Contentment! I don't need to spend money to be happy! In fact, doign things like gardening on weekends actually saves money.


When you are growing food for yourself, making cheese, playing violin, you are engaging in activities that are fulfilling to you because they are not fear based. You're not trying to fill up this bottomless void of fear by buying things other people tell you need. Instead, it is a positive act, a choice to embrace life and natural processes. If you are usuing sustainable growing techniques it is even more rewarding, in my opinion. Your thoughts on how it enables you to think better reminded me that many monasteries use gardening and menial physical labour as a tool to help people free the mind, besides making themselves more self-sufficient.
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby crapattack » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 17:14:51

Mesuge wrote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
PostPosted: Sat Dec 17, 2005 7:01 am Post subject: Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil
Crossbows are sexy but only short range. Another problem is that their contemporary space age materials won't allow for wood or any diy arrows..
Everything is too tightly computed for the advanced materials.
The only option is to get 100% natural material 'retro crossbow' someone certainly makes them check out the web..


Good point. I'm lucky in that I have a big 'ol wood compound crossbow my dad used to have. It's heavy but the bolts are wood and it actually has fairly good range, I can get 100yrds but I'm more accurate at 40 - 70.
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby abbcampbell » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 17:50:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crapattack_gst1', 'Y')ou are assuming that the only two courses of action are to try to mitigate or to do nothing. I believe that mitigation is worthwhile if it has a reasonable chance of succeeding, but it is a massive misallocation of energy if it has very little chance and can actually do some harm and if it directs people away from putting their energies into preparation. .... I also have a desire to see mitigation succeed, but that is not going to prevent me telling all my friends about PO and from trying to prepare. I'd rather be wrong than dead.



Agreed on almost all counts. The only disagreement that I have is with your assumptions about my assumptions. ;)

I don't think the only courses are mitigate or do nothing. There are multiple choices. Mitigate/don't mitigate and prepare/don't prepare. I don't see why we can't do both.

There is positively nothing wrong with, and plenty right with being prepared, peak oil collapse or not. Natural disasters, civil disorder, and plenty of other bad things can make a little bit of self-reliance a very sensible thing. Besides, I have dependants who will need to make it even if I don't.

So you see, I feel preparation is quite wise, and am trying to prepare as best I can; I also feel telling people about peak oil is absolutely essential. Matt may not have understood what I was trying to tell him...and maybe I didn't express it well, but my only gripe is with presenting the view of "it isn't worth trying to mitigate" as a foregone conclusion. Which of our peak-oil experts out there is telling us trying to mitigate is a bad idea? Not Campbell, not Deffeyes, not Goodstein, not Hirsch, and not even the late great M. King Hubbert.

If you personally believe mitigation is pointless, that's fine, speak your piece by all means, but please don't let people easily infer that this is also the opinion of the "experts." Present all sides of the story, and then tell us why you feel yours is right.
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby holmes » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 18:31:44

I dont. religion is a mental illness. Religions seek to point the blame on all not within there cult. Religion cult members are the most irresponsible people in the world. I use the bible pages to start my campfires. really. Got one in my camp box. When i use one up I get another somewhere at a flea market or something. screw brainwashing.
Maybe more will commit suicide they have done enough murdering and destruction to this earth already. slash your wrists lengthwise, remember.
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby abbcampbell » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 18:57:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('holmes', 'I') dont. religion is a mental illness. Religions seek to point the blame on all not within there cult. Religion cult members are the most irresponsible people in the world. I use the bible pages to start my campfires. really. Got one in my camp box. When i use one up I get another somewhere at a flea market or something. screw brainwashing.
Maybe more will commit suicide they have done enough murdering and destruction to this earth already. slash your wrists lengthwise, remember.



What are you on about?

Oh, by the way, don't forget to join the International Non-Sequitur Coallition, because horses have eyes.
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby crapattack » Sat 17 Dec 2005, 00:10:30

Homes wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') dont. religion is a mental illness. Religions seek to point the blame on all not within there cult. Religion cult members are the most irresponsible people in the world. I use the bible pages to start my campfires. really. Got one in my camp box. When i use one up I get another somewhere at a flea market or something. screw brainwashing.
Maybe more will commit suicide they have done enough murdering and destruction to this earth already. slash your wrists lengthwise, remember.


WTF? Maybe your point is tied to abbcampbell suicide? and this has to do with religion, how?
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby crapattack » Sat 17 Dec 2005, 00:23:39

abbcampbell wrote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is positively nothing wrong with, and plenty right with being prepared, peak oil collapse or not. Natural disasters, civil disorder, and plenty of other bad things can make a little bit of self-reliance a very sensible thing. Besides, I have dependants who will need to make it even if I don't.

So you see, I feel preparation is quite wise, and am trying to prepare as best I can; I also feel telling people about peak oil is absolutely essential. Matt may not have understood what I was trying to tell him...and maybe I didn't express it well, but my only gripe is with presenting the view of "it isn't worth trying to mitigate" as a foregone conclusion. Which of our peak-oil experts out there is telling us trying to mitigate is a bad idea? Not Campbell, not Deffeyes, not Goodstein, not Hirsch, and not even the late great M. King Hubbert.


I think the point is that mitigation that has no chance of succeeding actually is harmful in that it gives people a false hope and may mean that they don't act on their own behalf. I think much of the mitigation, and I agree with Matt on this point, is pointless if not irresponsible misallocation of resources. Much of the PO bickering back and forth is arguing whether this or that technology is viable and going save us. People will continue to dispute the facts if they think there is a slim chance this or that could save them and instead they'd be far better off preparing in the more than likey case that mitigation will fail. I'm sure we'd all love (including Matt) a viable realistic mitigation option - but there just seems to be nothing out there that seems plausible under all the conditions. Why waste time money and our remaining energy, which may actually accellerate PO? I see preparation as a very positive act that I can take on my own behalf - I've never been one for waiting around from someone to save my ass.
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby abbcampbell » Tue 20 Dec 2005, 09:43:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crapattack', 'I') think the point is that mitigation that has no chance of succeeding actually is harmful in that it gives people a false hope and may mean that they don't act on their own behalf.


You say that mitigation has no chance of succeeding and is harmful? Are you an expert in this field? That's a serious question, not a smart-aleck one.

I personally am not an expert, so I am stuck listening to others. So far as I can see, so far, we have folks like this lining up on either side of the argument. Just a few representative samples, for and against:

David Goodstein, PhD, vice-provost of CalTech and nuclear physicist telling us that we should launch a Manhattan-Project style mitigation and focus on nuclear.

Matthew Simmons, Bush Administration energy adviser and investment banker, who actively promotes drilling lots of places which are off-limits now.

Robert Hirsch, Senior Energy Program Advisor at SAIC and advisor to the DoE, suggests immediate mitigation on several fronts.

Congressman Roscoe Bartlett. His PhD is in Physiology, so I don't know how well it applies, but presumably has plenty of inside information and the best advisors. Educates himself well, listening to all sides, including LATOC...he recommends a man-on-the-moon class program for mitigation.


Okay, on the other side:

Matt Savinar, has his JD and passed the bar but no references on his resume to working in this field. Can find no references on his resume of a scientific background. Presumably makes a living writing and selling Peak Oil and survivalist literature. Perhaps he has other sources of expertise, but I don't know what they are if they do exist. His website has been quoted on the floor of congress by Congressman Bartlett, but Congressman Bartlett, despite reading Savinar's website, is an advocate of mitigation.

Then there are others like Kunstler and Heinberg who seem to come in somewhere between the others.

Kunstler is a professional journalist with a degree. Not sure what it's in. He seems to be most strongly advocating a new-urbanism.

Heinberg is a musician, illustrator, and educator at New College. A quick trip to New College's website (newcollege.edu) shows it is a very unique place, as educational institutions go. His bio doesn't list anything about his educational credentials, although other educators there have listed their degrees.

I've skipped out other players from both sides, like Amory Lovins and Richard Duncan, simply for lack of time.

Now, none of this on its own is conclusive, but since I'm not an expert in the field, it's what I have to go on. Ideally I'd like to see face to face debates between these folks. Without that, the very least I can say is that the jury is stil out, and there are very credible people advocating mitigation.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') see preparation as a very positive act that I can take on my own behalf - I've never been one for waiting around from someone to save my ass.


Agreed. It is very positive, and there's no reason for you to wait around for someone to save your ass. I have never recommended otherwise.

What I do recommend is a combination of mitigation and preparation...not one without the other. We need to fix what's wrong in society, yes, but we also need to save what we can of what's right with it.

What can an average citizen do about this? According to one of the experts I listed above, the best an average citizen can do is spread the word and try to apply pressure to governments to tackle immediate mitigation. So...that's what I'll do. In the meanwhile, I'll also start my garden, get out of debt, get as fit as I can, get a bicycle, etc...but I won't give up hope on mitigation.
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby Doly » Tue 20 Dec 2005, 10:29:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crapattack', '
')I think the point is that mitigation that has no chance of succeeding actually is harmful in that it gives people a false hope and may mean that they don't act on their own behalf. I think much of the mitigation, and I agree with Matt on this point, is pointless if not irresponsible misallocation of resources. Much of the PO bickering back and forth is arguing whether this or that technology is viable and going save us. People will continue to dispute the facts if they think there is a slim chance this or that could save them and instead they'd be far better off preparing in the more than likey case that mitigation will fail.


Imagine the doctor told you that you suffer from a disease that's very likely to kill you. What do you do?

Option 1: Convince yourself that you'll be fine. Go for the available treatment with all the faith in the world, and refuse to contemplate the possibility of dying.

Option 2: Convince yourself that you're going to die anyway, whatever you do. Refuse all treatment on that grounds. Prepare your will and leave your business in order for when you die.

Option 3: Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Go for all the available treatment, even stuff that only mitigates symptoms. At the same time, prepare your will and leave your business in order in case you die anyway.

Most people will agree that option 3 is the most reasonable. Now, can you tell me why it isn't the most reasonable when you're talking about a society/culture/civilization instead of an individual?
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby crapattack » Tue 20 Dec 2005, 11:21:03

abbcampbell wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')rapattack wrote:
I think the point is that mitigation that has no chance of succeeding actually is harmful in that it gives people a false hope and may mean that they don't act on their own behalf.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')bbcampgell wrote: You say that mitigation has no chance of succeeding and is harmful? Are you an expert in this field? That's a serious question, not a smart-aleck one.


I wasn't aware you needed to be an expert to have an option on a forum such as this abbcampbell. I have a graduate level degree in Psychology, and I'm learning all I can about PO, but I don't know if you would consider me an expert on this topic. I doubt it and I don't feel like one in any case.

The above is simply my opinion, expressed how I've seen others express opinions on this site in the context of my statement which you had earlier referenced:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou are assuming that the only two courses of action are to try to mitigate or to do nothing. I believe that mitigation is worthwhile if it has a reasonable chance of succeeding, but it is a massive misallocation of energy if it has very little chance and can actually do some harm and if it directs people away from putting their energies into preparation. .... I also have a desire to see mitigation succeed, but that is not going to prevent me telling all my friends about PO and from trying to prepare. I'd rather be wrong than dead.


Once you see the full context I think you'll agree it is quite clear I was stating my own opinion.

Next....

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'K')unstler is a professional journalist with a degree. Not sure what it's in. He seems to be most strongly advocating a new-urbanism.

Kunstler is indeed a journalist, he's written several books, "The Long Emergency" was one. From what I've seen I imagine he would most strongly disagree with you that he advocates new-urbanism. But a lot of your other observations were close if not bang on.

So, yes, yes, there are credible people advocating mitigation, and I think Matt and James have also said they would love it if mitigation worked, me too for that matter, they just don't believe it will. My opnion, but I happen to agree. I also happen to be a happy go-lucky cheerful person, get along well with most, love sunny days, just adore my techie toys - go figure huH?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat I do recommend is a combination of mitigation and preparation...not one without the other. We need to fix what's wrong in society, yes, but we also need to save what we can of what's right with it.

Ever heard of Jevon's paradox? If you haven't some reading will sure help ... http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic9035.html. I'm saying mitigation that won't work distracts us and sucks up energy we could use thanks.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')What can an average citizen do about this?

What Mr. Rodgers? What can we do?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')According to one of the experts I listed above, the best an average citizen can do is spread the word and try to apply pressure to governments to tackle immediate mitigation. So...that's what I'll do. In the meanwhile, I'll also start my garden, get out of debt, get as fit as I can, get a bicycle, etc...but I won't give up hope on mitigation.

Good for you! Good for you! I'm rooting for you! oh, and pssst! A lot of the 'EXPERTS' are doing same thing as you ;)
Last edited by crapattack on Tue 20 Dec 2005, 11:55:15, edited 1 time in total.
"Ninety percent of everything is crap."
-Theodore Sturgeon

Stay low and run in a random pattern.

List of Civilian Nuclear Accidents
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