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Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby Daryl » Wed 14 Dec 2005, 17:24:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', ' ')

1. GM/Ford laying of 60,000 people

2. CNN saying 800,000 jobs might vanish due to the housing bubble bursting (which is partly as a result of high energy costs)

2. War in iraq only getting worse, more and more troops getting killed, civil war breaking out

3. Possible nightmare scenario unfolding this winter in the northeast.
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/biztech/ar ... energy.htm

4. Government looting the national treasury like there's no tomorrow.




Gee, Matt. I was only 14 years old in 1970, but even then I could have given you a much bigger list of worries. None of that gloom came to pass, though. There's always somebody whining about the economy. You're better off talking about the national debt and the current account and trade deficits. And don't forget that scary stuff about all those billions of US dollars the Chinese hold. You're off in murkyland, though. Long way from Hubbert's peak and proving solar won't power us up.
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby crapattack » Wed 14 Dec 2005, 17:30:28

abbcampbell don't blame others if you are a prozacious needius, or a pufficous windbagious! your latinous badious doesn't impress me!
"Ninety percent of everything is crap."
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby EnviroEngr » Wed 14 Dec 2005, 17:35:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('abbcampbell', '&')lt;snip>

Perhaps I've been unclear. I'm not suggesting for a moment that you change your views or water down your site. I'm merely suggesting that, if you're going to use David Goodstein, Matthew Simmons, Colin Campbell, Congressman Bartlett and the like to support your case for a problem, it's only honest for you to point out that you also feel that their opinions about mitigation differ from yours...and then go on to tell us why you feel the experts you use to build your case for a problem are deluded about their notions of what to do about it.

It's similar to your using the fact that the site is mentioned by Rainwater in Forbes, and that he gives away copies of Mr. Heinberg's books to back yourself up ... without actually telling us everything Mr. Rainwater said about the site and Mr. Heinberg's books...

I'm not saying you need to say these people are right...just that it would show greater integrity to admit that they disagree with your conclusions rather than letting people draw a natural if inaccurate inference that the folks whose names you drop support every plank of your platform.


These are interesting, well-articulated and finely discriminated points.

I take it you've thought this over a bit.

This is a much-needed level of discernment in discourse - showing what's connected, what isn't and why, from a logical point of view.
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby MattSavinar » Wed 14 Dec 2005, 17:40:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('abbcampbell', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crapattack', 'A')h, we finally have a reappearence of the lunatic fringe. abbcampbell, you seriously need to start taking some responsibility for your own feelings and stop accusing Matt of abusing you ....


Crapattack, the argumentum ad hominem abusive is a specific class of informal fallacy. As a law-school grad, I imgagine he's familiar with the term. Sorry if you found it misleading.

To explain, I wasn't accusing Matt of abusing me, per se, I was accusing him of trying to dodge my arguments by diverting attention away from them and onto me as a person.

Similarly, if I were to accuse Matt (which I'm not...this is just an example) of adocating a doomer stance just because he's making money from selling books on preparedness, I would be committing an ad hominem circumstantial. If (and again this is just an example, not something I'm actually asserting) I were to say he must have mental issues of his own, that would be ad hominem tu quoque.


More passive-aggressive personal attacks by you. Like I said, get help.
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby MattSavinar » Wed 14 Dec 2005, 17:48:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', ' ')

1. GM/Ford laying of 60,000 people

2. CNN saying 800,000 jobs might vanish due to the housing bubble bursting (which is partly as a result of high energy costs)

2. War in iraq only getting worse, more and more troops getting killed, civil war breaking out

3. Possible nightmare scenario unfolding this winter in the northeast.
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/biztech/ar ... energy.htm

4. Government looting the national treasury like there's no tomorrow.




Gee, Matt. I was only 14 years old in 1970, but even then I could have given you a much bigger list of worries. None of that gloom came to pass, though. There's always somebody whining about the economy. You're better off talking about the national debt and the current account and trade deficits. And don't forget that scary stuff about all those billions of US dollars the Chinese hold. You're off in murkyland, though. Long way from Hubbert's peak and proving solar won't power us up.


Daryl,

You're right, it is everyday that somebody is whining about the economy.

But it's not every day that GM and Ford each announce their laying off 30,000 people. Nor is it everday when the former director of the CIA says parts of the Northeast could be a frozen New Orleans.

Best,

Matt
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby Hegel » Wed 14 Dec 2005, 18:02:33

You people are starting to frighten me! I urge you to calibrate your fatalistic Weltanschauung back to reality(tm) and stop spiraling into paranoia any further.
Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby Daryl » Wed 14 Dec 2005, 18:05:23

Did Woolsey say that? He's a peak oil guy, you know.
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby Mesuge » Wed 14 Dec 2005, 18:06:07

Woolsey deserves some credit for joining the hydrogen debunking camp but his plugin hybrid wet dreams about exchaging the entire US car fleet in a few years with hybrids is a cornocupian joke.. Toyota announced 1milion hybrids per year starting from 2010 - that's impossible to match in the US even with some government crash programme in place..

Yes, Detroit is now firing people but on the other hand asians are hiring people like crazy in their US based car factories so as long as gallon is under $7-10 you guys are doing just allright.. I think that's just some mental block on the side of the american public that price around $5 is a draconic value..
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby EnviroEngr » Wed 14 Dec 2005, 18:34:25

Now that I know 'the rest of the story', I'm given pause.

A human being is such a complex phenomenon.

abbcampbell, strictly for my selfish edification, can you take me by the hand and lead me through the thought process that lead you to say this:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou seem to be an attorney with some measure of conscience. Reading your resume, you seem to have been very active in social justice when in school, and I can't imagine LATOC is the most lucrative persuit you could muster...thus I deduce some ethics. When I tell you I was close to suicide reading your site, do you find that worrisome? I wonder how many others have shared that and not told you?


Precisely what was your aim in declaratively asking such a loaded question?
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby seldom_seen » Wed 14 Dec 2005, 18:36:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('abbcampbell', '[')b]When I tell you I was close to suicide reading your site, do you find that worrisome? I wonder how many others have shared that and not told you?

I interpret that as we've got ourselves a drama queen who's trying to push matt's buttons.
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby MattSavinar » Wed 14 Dec 2005, 18:39:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('abbcampbell', '[')b]When I tell you I was close to suicide reading your site, do you find that worrisome? I wonder how many others have shared that and not told you?

I interpret that as we've got ourselves a drama queen who's trying to push matt's buttons.


That was my sense as well. Had he really wanted to discuss such an intense, loaded issue, he would have sent me a private email.

That's not the type of thing you post on a public message board, unless you have alterior motives.

Best,

Matt
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby MattSavinar » Wed 14 Dec 2005, 18:42:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'D')id Woolsey say that? He's a peak oil guy, you know.


Yeah, he did. It's in the US News/World Report article. It's as "doomeristic" as it gets: blackouts, pipes busting all over the northeast, people freezing to death, industrial shutdowns, etc. .

Best,

Matt
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby MattSavinar » Wed 14 Dec 2005, 18:49:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'D')id Woolsey say that? He's a peak oil guy, you know.


Yeah, he did. It's in the US News/World Report article. It's as "doomeristic" as it gets: blackouts, pipes busting all over the northeast, people freezing to death, industrial shutdowns, etc. .

Daryl, I bet you'll read that piece and start thinking, "gee, maybe I should get some guns and dry goods."

Best,

Matt
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby Daryl » Wed 14 Dec 2005, 19:26:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'D')id Woolsey say that? He's a peak oil guy, you know.


Yeah, he did. It's in the US News/World Report article. It's as "doomeristic" as it gets: blackouts, pipes busting all over the northeast, people freezing to death, industrial shutdowns, etc. .

Daryl, I bet you'll read that piece and start thinking, "gee, maybe I should get some guns and dry goods."

Best,

Matt


Fear sells, Matt. Watch the local news anxiety-thon every night. That's why Bushy boy used WMD as his primary war propaganda. Fear also controls. Was it you who referenced Orwell the other day? Hear the distant drumbeat starting for "energy security". It will get louder and louder and louder. How the heck else do you think we're going to get those nuclear power plants built? I was just out for a sandwich and Kudlow was on CNBC. They were flogging this stuff. Coal, CTL, nuclear. The auto companies are going to be big losers in this.
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby abbcampbell » Wed 14 Dec 2005, 20:06:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnviroEngr', '
')Precisely what was your aim in declaratively asking such a loaded question?


Sure.

My aim was to hopefully persuade Matt that his site, as it stands, may have some unintended consequences that I figured he wouldn't want it to have.

My aim was to alert him of this so that he could have the luxury of dealing with this rather than some distraught wife of someone else who actually mentioned LATOC in a suicide note. As I said in the initial post, Matt struck me as someone with a conscience, and I thought I might be doing him a favor to alert him of a potential unforseen problem. Ironic, huh? We seem to have switched roles to an extent.

Anyway, I don't see it as particularly loaded...just reality. You know, deal with reality... Anyway, I seem to have misjudged how others would take it. My bad.

Matt, I'm sorry it bothers you that I posted it in a public forum. Had I known it would bug you, I'd have sent you a PM. To be honest, though, I had no clue you would be so defensive over it. After all, I'm the one admitting on a public forum that I had a mental illness of that magnitude, while all I suggested of you was that perhaps you hadn't thought this particlar part through thoroughly. I've spoken with others who had a similar reaction, including one on a public forum. I'll be happy to send you a link if you like, since he posted anonymously. Still, it seems to have bugged you in a way I hadn't anticipated. Ironically, I've made a variant of the mistake I warned you of.

Now, with that behind us, do you feel LATOC has a resposnibility to at least mention things like that your major sources seem to disagree with you about the eventual results of the problem?
Unless someone, like you,
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It's not.
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby crapattack » Wed 14 Dec 2005, 21:21:07

The thing about optimism is you never know if it's reality or wish fulfillment. Despite vast amounts of evidence to the contrary there will always be people who just want everything to turn out ok and believe by some miracle of modern teeth whitening it will. It doesn't occur to them that bad things could happen to them, because bad things are what happen to other people. Any hair-brained scheme that gives them a warm-fuzzy is trotted out as an example of how things can never go wrong. "See", they say, "things are being done! People are working hard on it, don't be so negative!” Trying to refute their reasoning, faulty facts or absurd notions most often results in nasty little attacks like abbcampbell's 'suicide bomb' on Matt Savinar.

A disease of rampant positivism has overtaken our culture and caused otherwise intelligent people to forget how to think properly. I blame it mostly on the pseudo-psychologists who make millions trying to convince poor smucks they can have it all if they "just think right". Negative thoughts feel bad, ew yuck, don't have them. As if the 'dark side' of humanity is something people think they can just wish away. The so called 'good' people, 'right thinking' folks, will have a sugar plum fairy life blessed with happiness, big houses and consumer goods, while the 'bad' people will get what they deserve...evil, 'bad' things! Meanwhile your so-called 'good' fathers are raping their daughters at night (1 of 4, remember) and the 'evil' folks are handing out hot dinners to the poor. And yes, I can hear them screaming, sometimes bad people do bad things and good folks do great things. You know what? I think we’re all a bit good and a bit bad and denying it has led us down with this dead-end and we’ll now have to change our direction.

I don't want horrible things to happen to people, but the positivists seem to only want good things to happen period. This is ridiculous, of course. Life is full of trials - it's supposed to be! If only good things ever happened we'd never learn from our mistakes, never learn anything new because we wouldn't need to, never be challenged, in short, it wouldn't be a life.

I am certain most people who have come to the conclusion we are headed for real trouble don't want this outcome. Very few would really want to see billions of people die and our whole world sent backward. Some see it as a necessary readjustment in an abstract intellectual way, but few would really want to look in the faces of dying and say it its fine. Some Cornucopian’s have accused doomers of wanting doom and gloom and death - and I see it as a way to prop up their argument by shorting the other. As for telling people about PO, tell as many as possible. You never know when you might need someone by your side.
"Ninety percent of everything is crap."
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby MattSavinar » Wed 14 Dec 2005, 21:40:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'D')id Woolsey say
Matt


Fear sells, Matt. Watch the local news anxiety-thon every night. .


My local news is too busy covering:

1. The "War on Christmas"

2. Something about some girl who disappeared

3. Some celebrity's court case.

Fear doesn't sell as much as bullshit or happy-happy wishful thinking like the recent CNN piece on oil shale and super deep offshore drilling.

Best,

Matt
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby crapattack » Wed 14 Dec 2005, 22:02:29

Matt Savinar said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Fear doesn't sell as much as bullshit or happy-happy wishful thinking like the recent CNN piece on oil shale and super deep offshore drilling.


Keep all the serfs distracted and doped up on happy juice. "See, somethings being done! Don't be so negative!". Look! The new X-box 360!

Trouble with telling the truth is almost nobody wants to hear it even if they need to.
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby Daryl » Wed 14 Dec 2005, 22:02:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'D')id Woolsey say
Matt


Fear sells, Matt. Watch the local news anxiety-thon every night. .


My local news is too busy covering:

1. The "War on Christmas"

2. Something about some girl who disappeared

3. Some celebrity's court case.

Fear doesn't sell as much as bullshit or happy-happy wishful thinking like the recent CNN piece on oil shale and super deep offshore drilling.

Best,

Matt


Good point. My all time favorite is still the overnight shift from wall to wall Iraq War coverage to wall to wall Laci Peterson coverage in 03. What kind of whores are the news media?

I read the US News article on winter. Great stuff. They even referred to the pipe bursting risk that I first read about on Kunstler's site. Didn't realize about the NYC steam problem. I don't want to sound heartless about this, but a panic in the Northeast and some real hardship might be the best thing that could happen. While the rich will still be somewhat protected (ole Rainwater's gone out and bought himself a nice big emergency generator, I betcha), otherwise a broad energy crisis is like a tsunami in it's all encompassing effects. New Orleans mostly affected poor blacks. Wait til the middle class and Northeast elites get cold.
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Re: Don't Tell People About Peak Oil

Postby crapattack » Wed 14 Dec 2005, 22:29:50

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/biztech/ar ... energy.htm

Excellent article. :(

Plan for the worst, hope for the best. It's gonna be a rough winter for a lot of folks. Up here in Vancouver we're insolated a bit because we're mostly on hydro for electricity, but heating is NG and its sure to go up.
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