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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Nuclear or Renewables?

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Would you adjust your lifestyle and embrace a shift to renewables or more nuclear power

Yes
44
No votes
No
18
No votes
 
Total votes : 62

Re: Nuclear or renewables?

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 20:52:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'W')hat I don't understand is why we need MORE power plants. When those of us in the First World already use 5 or so Earth's worth of resources, why do we need to produce MORE energy? What is it FOR? Pardon my allcaps, but I'm just not understanding this. Why, when we're using far more than our share of Earth's energy, do we need to produce MORE ENERGY? When will we say "enough?" How many nuke/coal, whatever plants do we need to build before we say "Stop"?


In reguards to Fission, don't think of it as MORE plants, think of it as DIFFERENT plants. I researched Texas electricity production with little success in an attempot to test your 21 new nuke plants needed hypothesis. While I didn;t find the detailed numbers I needed to test that statement I did discover that almost 45% of texas electricity right now is natural gas, and most of the rest is Coal. Not a surprise is it, but if you build 20 new nuke plants you stop emmiting all those fossil fuel green house gasses into the air. You also stop digging up mountains of coal 15% of which is ash left over from combustion which is toxic and has to be dealt with. You save all the natural gas now used for power production to be used for plastic manufacturing, home heat supplies and so on and in the process cut use substantially which lower the price for home users.
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Re: Nuclear or renewables?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 20:53:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'I') find Monte's scenario (if I've described it somewhat accurately) entirely plausible. However, there are other viable scenarios. Nuclear and renewables could extend the growth phase indefinitey.


There are no limits if you got enough energy? Pfft!

Ever hear of Liebig's Law?
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Re: Nuclear or renewables?

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 20:56:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'N')ot a surprise is it, but if you build 20 new nuke plants you stop emmiting all those fossil fuel green house gasses into the air. You also stop digging up mountains of coal 15% of which is ash left over from combustion which is toxic and has to be dealt with. You save all the natural gas now used for power production to be used for plastic manufacturing, home heat supplies and so on and in the process cut use substantially which lower the price for home users.


Where would we build them?
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Re: Nuclear or renewables?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 20:58:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', ' ') The nuclear advocates on the board are arguing that it has the ability to prevent collapse and die-off, unlike say solar and wind power.


Exactly, and we do need to have a population reduction and we do need to change our current system.

The last thing in the world we need is a way to avoid this correction.

Comes back to my Peak oil: Tip of the Iceberg thread.

We need a new world view based upon ecological limits, not human ideals.
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Re: Nuclear or renewables?

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 21:03:52

Don't they require a lot of water?
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Re: Nuclear or renewables?

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 21:06:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'N')ot a surprise is it, but if you build 20 new nuke plants you stop emmiting all those fossil fuel green house gasses into the air. You also stop digging up mountains of coal 15% of which is ash left over from combustion which is toxic and has to be dealt with. You save all the natural gas now used for power production to be used for plastic manufacturing, home heat supplies and so on and in the process cut use substantially which lower the price for home users.


Where would we build them?


The most logical place to build them is to co-locate with the existing fossil plants that now exist wherever that is practicle. That way when the fossil plant is shut off the fission plant can step in and use the existing infrastructure, which saves huge ammounts of money, time and trouble, and cdauses the least ecological damage because those sites are already developed industrial real estate, not untouched wilderness or in generl down town inner city land.
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Re: Nuclear or renewables?

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 21:12:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', ' ') The nuclear advocates on the board are arguing that it has the ability to prevent collapse and die-off, unlike say solar and wind power.


Exactly, and we do need to have a population reduction and we do need to change our current system.

The last thing in the world we need is a way to avoid this correction.

Comes back to my Peak oil: Tip of the Iceberg thread.

We need a new world view based upon ecological limits, not human ideals.


The correction is unavoidible Monte, World pop is schedualed to max out around 9 Billion in 2050. After that due to declining world wide birthrates you will get your correction, over about 100 years the world population will fall to about 4.5Billion.

If we use Fission to bridge the gap for the next 150 years we will be down around solar sustainibility without rapid die off. That's my hopefull scenario.

Otherwise we end up with a China vs India resource war, which would go nuclear and solve over population in about 21 hours.
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Re: Nuclear or renewables?

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 21:15:42

Tanada, what will remain of the Earth's ecosystems in 100 years?

What would cause the continuing decline in birth rates?
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Re: Nuclear or renewables?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 21:21:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FatherOfTwo', '
')We must give ourselves the best odds of surviving the transition.

Does anyone disagree that Problem #1 is surviving the transition?


No, not at all. What comes into question is a transition from what to what?

Fossil fuels to renewables?

If it was only that simple.

Comes back to my Tip of the Iceberg thread:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow many see peak oil as a symptom of a greater disease?

On the other hand, how many see peak oil as just another problem to be solved by man’s ingenuity? His course is sound, he just needs a new energy source to “stay the course”.


We need a transition from a Newtonian Mechanics World Paradigm to an Ecological World Paradigm.

How many nuclear proponents address these issues:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n my opinion, any proposed solutions to the peak oil issue must address the following criteria to be viable long-term solutions.

1. They must address population growth.
2. They must address the global warming issue.
3. They must address the negative consequences of conservation efforts on the economy and efficiency gains increasing consumption.
4. They must address the economic issues of a no-growth economy and past debt.
5. They must be sustainable/ renewable and the least toxic to the environment.
6. And probably most important, they must be global in perspective.


As far as nuclear goes, I see only #2 claimed to be addressed.

The poll on this thread reflects the dominance of a preferred Ecological Paradigm.

The conflict over these diverging views will escalate, not just on this board, but throughout the world.
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Re: Nuclear or renewables?

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 21:29:22

Do you think the ecological paradigm is preferred by the population at large?
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Re: Nuclear or renewables?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 21:30:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FatherOfTwo', ' ')My definition is anyone who openly welcomes, in fact encourages, a rapid decline in the population of the planet.


Then by your definition you are an eco-facist and don't know it.
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Re: Nuclear or renewables?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 21:51:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'M')onte, what about the idea that we'll just use the nuke energy to transition to a sustainable way of life?

This seems to be what some are proposing, that it's just a bridge or stopgap to a sustainable way of life based on solar energy.


We didn't do it with the transition from wood to coal or from coal to oil.

And how many nuclear proponents are advocating a powerdown to a sustainable culture while advocating nuclear?

None.

Solutions in Isolation.
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Re: Nuclear or renewables?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 22:10:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', ' ')The correction is unavoidible Monte, World pop is schedualed to max out around 9 Billion in 2050. After that due to declining world wide birthrates you will get your correction, over about 100 years the world population will fall to about 4.5Billion.


It has never happen this way before. Historically, the earth's population has grown at about 2% a year, doubling every 35 years.

Recently, that rate has dropped to about 1.3%, doubling every 54 years.

It is hoped/projected/wished that the birth rate will continue to decline, but it is scheduled to reach 13 billion in 54 years right now.

The cornucopian paradigm from the UN gives a specific model for a human population plateau called the “Benign Demographic Transition.” This ignores traditional human population models, and is not supported by scientific evidence.

As the world gets poorer, we may see an increase in the birth rate to provide hands to do the work.
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Re: Nuclear or renewables?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 22:15:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'D')o you think the ecological paradigm is preferred by the population at large?


Only by those who understand that there are limits that all the energy and technology in the world can't overcome.

Largely, they are ignorant of energy and the world around them. In the many years as a NPS ranger, I have had many a campfire chat with the "masses."

They are woefully clueless, and assume someone else has that watch.

Someone else does.

That is the problem.
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Re: Nuclear or renewables?

Unread postby EnergySpin » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 04:25:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', ' ')The correction is unavoidible Monte, World pop is schedualed to max out around 9 Billion in 2050. After that due to declining world wide birthrates you will get your correction, over about 100 years the world population will fall to about 4.5Billion.


It has never happen this way before. Historically, the earth's population has grown at about 2% a year, doubling every 35 years.

Recently, that rate has dropped to about 1.3%, doubling every 54 years.

It is hoped/projected/wished that the birth rate will continue to decline, but it is scheduled to reach 13 billion in 54 years right now.

The cornucopian paradigm from the UN gives a specific model for a human population plateau called the “Benign Demographic Transition.” This ignores traditional human population models, and is not supported by scientific evidence.

As the world gets poorer, we may see an increase in the birth rate to provide hands to do the work.

This is just silly. Can you give us models that worked better than the UN models in recent times? Please read up on population modelling ; your views are just as wrong/outdated/fallacious as your understanding of thermodynamics
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Re: Nuclear or renewables?

Unread postby Doly » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 05:15:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')It has never happen this way before. Historically, the earth's population has grown at about 2% a year, doubling every 35 years.


Monte, and you are the sort of guy that normally laughs at the people that say something never happened before? You, of all people, should realise that things change.

You claim to know something about the evolution of populations. I know a bit too, I did mathematical models of populations for ages. And you should know that one common scenario is the famous S curve, when a population grows rapidly and then stabilizes near its limit (whatever first ecological limit it hits). It's obvious that the UN model assumes a scenario like this, and it doesn't look at all unreasonable to me.
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Re: Nuclear or renewables?

Unread postby seldom_seen » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 05:37:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')e need a transition from a Newtonian Mechanics World Paradigm to an Ecological World Paradigm.

<applause>

Peak oil is going to be very hard, on the job training in ecological limits. Those who emerge on the far end will be living amongst the skeleton of industrial civilization. Constantly reminded of what came and went. Maybe something that dramatic is required to bring about a shift in thinking. We will certainly be a much more humble species at that point.
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Re: Nuclear or renewables?

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 07:51:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', ' ')The correction is unavoidible Monte, World pop is schedualed to max out around 9 Billion in 2050. After that due to declining world wide birthrates you will get your correction, over about 100 years the world population will fall to about 4.5Billion.


It has never happen this way before. Historically, the earth's population has grown at about 2% a year, doubling every 35 years.

Recently, that rate has dropped to about 1.3%, doubling every 54 years.

It is hoped/projected/wished that the birth rate will continue to decline, but it is scheduled to reach 13 billion in 54 years right now.

The cornucopian paradigm from the UN gives a specific model for a human population plateau called the “Benign Demographic Transition.” This ignores traditional human population models, and is not supported by scientific evidence.

As the world gets poorer, we may see an increase in the birth rate to provide hands to do the work.


Where to start? OK I will keep it simple, if the world population 'historically' doubles every 35 years then the converse is also true, so by this statement we know that in 1970 World population was 3.2Billion, in 1935 it was 1.6Billion, in 1900 it was 800 Million, in 1865 it was 400 million, in 1830 it was 200 Million, in 1795 it was 100 Million, in 1760 it was 50 Million...... In 22 cycles or the year 1235 there was only 1 human on earth, and boy were they lonely.

Clearly history doesn't agree with you Monte. History didn't start in 1960 and it won't end yesterday, these kind of projections should make it clear why people scoff at long term prophecies of doom.

The population bloom did not come from cheap oil per se, it came from pesticides and fertilizers made on an industrial scale. Both of those catagories of chemilcals can be made from electricity and raw materials, it just cost a lot more than using cheap oil to do it.

I used the term 'currently schedualed' deliberatly because the formerly schedualed figures for 2050 have ranged as high as 100 Billion, based on a very short term trend in one small region projected as a permanent trend over the whole world.

Honest modeling requires all models to be updated as new data comes in, just in the last decade another 2 Billion have been shaved off the ultimate total population projection. At that rate of decline in the rate of increase we would top out at 7 Billion in 2015.

The point is until we hit peak human population we don't know where the peak is, any more than we do with peak oil. Until we pass peak and do some math we are all just guessing, and I find my guesses a lot more beleivable than yours because mine are based on historical evidence and current trends.
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Re: Nuclear or renewables?

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 11:43:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')The population bloom did not come from cheap oil per se, it came from pesticides and fertilizers made on an industrial scale. Both of those catagories of chemilcals can be made from electricity and raw materials, it just cost a lot more than using cheap oil to do it.


I strongly disagree. The population bloom was accomplished by cheap oil used to power tractors, harvesters, processing equipment, storage equipment, and transportation, as well as fertilizers and pesticides. This enormous quantity of food could not have been produced, harvested, transported, or stored without the access to cheap energy. Even with fertilizers and pesticides, such large areas of land could not have been farmed with horse and plow, nor harvested with horsedrawn equipment.
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Re: Nuclear or renewables?

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 11:59:41

Population growth rate decline is typically explained by the fact that those countries which experience a drop in birth rate are those which have the highest standard of living; developing countries typically have a higher birthrate. Third World countries typically have the highest birthrate. Affluence is both a cause and an affect of declining birth rates, but affluence causes an even greater degree of environmental harm. Estimates are that it would take 5 or more Earths to support the current population at a First World level. Clearly, without more Earths, we can't raise the entire population to this degree of affluence, though many are trying. Many even claim that raising affluence will cause environmental destruction to slow, because of erroneous belief that affluence causes less environmental damage.

Agreeing on a baseline standard of living which does not require additional Earths and aiming for that, along with education and empowerment of women, may be the best bets for stabilizing the population in a way which will allow the life systems which sustain us to continue to function properly.
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