by Tanada » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 07:51:04
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', ' ')The correction is unavoidible Monte, World pop is schedualed to max out around 9 Billion in 2050. After that due to declining world wide birthrates you will get your correction, over about 100 years the world population will fall to about 4.5Billion.
It has
never happen this way before. Historically, the earth's population has grown at about 2% a year, doubling every 35 years.
Recently, that rate has dropped to about 1.3%, doubling every 54 years.
It is hoped/projected/wished that the birth rate will continue to decline, but it is
scheduled to reach 13 billion in 54 years right now.
The cornucopian paradigm from the UN gives a specific model for a human population plateau called the “Benign Demographic Transition.” This ignores traditional human population models, and is not supported by scientific evidence.
As the world gets poorer, we may see an increase in the birth rate to provide hands to do the work.
Where to start? OK I will keep it simple, if the world population 'historically' doubles every 35 years then the converse is also true, so by this statement we know that in 1970 World population was 3.2Billion, in 1935 it was 1.6Billion, in 1900 it was 800 Million, in 1865 it was 400 million, in 1830 it was 200 Million, in 1795 it was 100 Million, in 1760 it was 50 Million...... In 22 cycles or the year 1235 there was only 1 human on earth, and boy were they lonely.
Clearly history doesn't agree with you Monte. History didn't start in 1960 and it won't end yesterday, these kind of projections should make it clear why people scoff at long term prophecies of doom.
The population bloom did not come from cheap oil per se, it came from pesticides and fertilizers made on an industrial scale. Both of those catagories of chemilcals can be made from electricity and raw materials, it just cost a lot more than using cheap oil to do it.
I used the term 'currently schedualed' deliberatly because the formerly schedualed figures for 2050 have ranged as high as 100 Billion, based on a very short term trend in one small region projected as a permanent trend over the whole world.
Honest modeling requires all models to be updated as new data comes in, just in the last decade another 2 Billion have been shaved off the ultimate total population projection. At that rate of decline in the rate of increase we would top out at 7 Billion in 2015.
The point is until we hit peak human population we don't know where the peak is, any more than we do with peak oil. Until we pass peak and do some math we are all just guessing, and I find my guesses a lot more beleivable than yours because mine are based on historical evidence and current trends.