[Revi]

I found dieoff about 6 or 7 years ago. I put it out of my mind, but it kept coming back. I spent a few years denying it, but the evidence was there, and finally it was everywhere. I was in the doomer camp at first, and then decided to do something about the problem. Since we have switched about half of our fossil fueled energy to renewables, I am less worried about the world ending. It may end, but I am not going to be one of the people standing around telling everybody. Showing people what to do is much more productive. Solar hot water, photovoltaics and alternative forms of transportation are fun ways that the average person can respond to peak oil. Peak oil spurred me to do what I should have been doing a long time ago. Anybody can do it.

[Lokutus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') found dieoff about 6 or 7 years ago. I put it out of my mind, but it kept coming back. I spent a few years denying it, but the evidence was there, and finally it was everywhere. I was in the doomer camp at first, and then decided to do something about the problem.

[ubercynicmeister]

LOL, one thing that completely flummoxes me is the way that almost everyone here seems to get depressed and anrgy when first discovering Peak Oil.

I can assure you, when I started to read about Peak Oil, all I could think of was "Heck, so it's finally come, eh?"

To explain: I was involved in a local movement to try and stop the local politicians from ripping our local (well-used) passenger railway line out. I mentioned to a fellow participant that I was wondering when Oil would eventually get so expensive, we couldn't keep on expanding roads, and he put me on to the Lifeaftertheoilcrash.com website.

Y'see, it makes eminent sense - if one forces (or tricks - it doesn't matter, the overall effect is the same) every person on this planet to use one given resource, exclusively, then the price of that resource will rise.

At least a decade or two before I had ever HEARD of Peak Oil, being into Astronomy, I realised that our planet was of finite size - big to us humans, but still quite finite. If Oil comes from a finite planet (even if the very doubtful "abiotic oil" theory is right) then humans would start to run low on it, sooner or later.

I reached all of these conclusions long before I had ever heard of Peak Oil. And when I reached them, I did not feel "depressed" or "angry" or "in De Egyptian River" - instead my feelings were "well, let's get along and fix this problem,(if there is a fix) before it occurs". So I tried to do so - I joined various organisations that seeemed to be heading in the right direction of reducing our Oil dependancy and learnt a lot, mostly that few others were interested.

Then I was introduced to Peak Oil theory. I'll willingly confirm I have to say I beleive in it - I'm no Jean Laherre, or Colin Cambell, or Richard Heinberg - they have access to facts and experience that I simply do not have. Thus the theory has to be "belief" in my own case.

Upon beiong introduced toPeak Oil, I realised that all of my thoughts previously had been right - we could not go on growing (as the IDIOTIC Economic Rationalists had said) exponentially, without something giving.

Peak Oil theory (doomerosity) states that we've left our run too late, to do a smooth transition to another energy source. I cannot tell you if this is correct or incorrect. It sorta "feels" right, if you follow what I'm saying. Certainly, since the ruinous Economic Rationalists have gotten into power, we've scuppered several generations' worth of research (left completely undone), and with Political Correctness dumbing down our schools / colleges / Universities, we're doing everything we can to make the "doomerosity" happen.

CS Lewis said as much over 60 years ago. JRR Tolkien also said as much. But Professors Lewis and Tolkien existed in an era of rising Oil production - the Age Of Easy Oil.

Getting back to my own "experiences" Peak Oil simply confirmed what I'd been thinking since my early teens: that we were (worryingly) leaving research undone, year after year - that we were stopping those who wanted to learn from learning, because that might be discriminatory.

Peak Oil simply crystallised my own thinking, supplying me with information that gave me pause, but did not alarm me, in that sense. I have never ONCE felt angry, or "In de Egyptian River, or depressed or "accepting" of Peak Oil, simply because I've thought "that way" since my early teens.

What astonished me (and astonishes me still) is that anyone, given the vast amount of information we all have nowadays couild be in any way surprised that something like Peak oil (doomerosity) could not happen and that there's any doubt that the whole show really WILL end with a whimper not a bang....even if we somehow avoid Doomerosity, then this whole Universe is running down.

One day, perhaps billions of years from now, every star will have died, every black hole evpaorated (yes, thanks to Hawking Radiation, Black Holes evaporate), and all sub-atomic particles will have dissolved back to the radiation they once were. All will be cold, dead empty space.

Perhaps we'll have a Big Crunch? In which case, everything gets compressed to such a small size that not even individual quarks - or anything else - can exist.

Same result (Universal Extinction), different route to get there.

Remember: It is astronomy that teaches this, NOT Peak oil or Geology.

There is NO WAY to reach any other form of conclusion. Even if we avoid , right now, this or that particular Iceberg, the ship's still sinking. Ultimately, if this Universe is "all there is", then , well, the whole thing is FOR nothing.

I'll leave it up to those who want a religious argument to dispute about the "meaning" of the Universe, as that's waaaaay outside the scope of what the original question was, but I will end by asking the obvious question:

Given that we've known this since the 1930's, how is it we've ignored these Ultimate Questions for so darn LONG?

Peak Oil is a very small rock to trip us up, in the bigger picture of supernovae and Galactic Extinctors, but we should surely expect such "trip ups" in a world or Universe full of trip-ups?

[pea-jay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne day, perhaps billions of years from now, every star will have died, every black hole evpaorated (yes, thanks to Hawking Radiation, Black Holes evaporate), and all sub-atomic particles will have dissolved back to the radiation they once were. All will be cold, dead empty space.

Perhaps we'll have a Big Crunch? In which case, everything gets compressed to such a small size that not even individual quarks - or anything else - can exist.

Same result (Universal Extinction), different route to get there.

Remember: It is astronomy that teaches this, NOT Peak oil or Geology.

There is NO WAY to reach any other form of conclusion. Even if we avoid , right now, this or that particular Iceberg, the ship's still sinking. Ultimately, if this Universe is "all there is", then , well, the whole thing is FOR nothing.

[Barbara]

I was playing around with this thing of PO since the end of 2003. Then I stumbled into a Crawford Ranch description on an italian magazine.

It was an eye opener and convinced me definitively.

[fox]

I always knew we would run out of oil but I just assumed we had until 2050 or something and by that time fusion and nanotech would be able to solve all our problems. Then in 2003 I came across a report from Hawaii by Jack Zagar " The End of Cheap 'Conventional' Oil" I realized it was the production peak not total oil in the ground that is the real problem.
After googling like a maniac I guessed personally we would be in serious troubles by 2008 but not insurmountable.

In 2005 I realized about the bioligical nitrogen coming from gas and was worried. I came across the dieoff site and saw the graph on page 1, thats the scariest graph I ever saw. There's no replacing that nitrogen that I can find and that has me worried the most. It's not easy finding out that 2 out of 3 people now alive are probably going to die and there's nothing anyone can do about it. I have looked hard I have looked over the big problems of the world all my adult life <im 38> and always assumed Nuclear and nanotech warfare, global warming or water wars would be the biggest thing ever but gradually and decades away I worried about the oxygen generating plankton dieing off. funny how it's not monsters or rocks from space or even nuclear war but our own lifestyle that will kill us.

Now I am trying to percieve how things will pan out here in Australia and what I can do to survive the oncoming collapse. Will it be fast and violent? or slow? this is something I must know on order to plan things. I'm hoping for shtf for long term but my personal survival probably favours lsss.

Just now I have an urge to do some genocide, better 4 billion now than many more billions slowly and painfully in the future and total extinction, and I would start in the USA sorry guys. Of corse I could never do it I would be the biggest mass murderer in history. besides I like Americas <mostly> and I consider myself a good guy LOL I know Australia is overpopulated too.

Be totally aware of what's at stake here, as far as the Earth is concerned we're it. In only 500 million years the Earth will be unnhabitable! forever. There will never be another chance at civilization. Anyone who's done astronomy knows the sun is slowly expanding as it ages.

The silence in the universe may have a rather simple <game theory> explanation after all, inertia in complex systems and critical failure points.

[Revi]

I know the ship's going down. I just don't choose to wail and moan. I am trying to tie as many deck chairs together as I can to make a raft. We might just make it. The folks up in the pilot house are not telling us anything and wouldn't listen anyway if we told them that the icebergs are getting closer.

So I am focused on my own community. We have to get people ready for what's coming. Call it whatever you want, peak oil, economic collapse, winter, Whatever. The best thing we can do is help our neighbors insulate their houses, feed the poor, plant a garden. The last thing I'm going to do is cower in a bunker waiting for doom. There may be plenty of time for that later.

[thuja]

I have always understood the concept that the world's resources are finite, that a growth based of civilization is npt sustainable, etc. But up until this year I felt that we could find energy alternatives that were clean, develop ways of sustaining an economy that weren't so environmentally damaging... and that we could somehow switch gears and become sustainable as a civilization.

Then I met a PO doomer who helped me to start researching the facts. I read the party's over, the long emergency, read LATOC site, checked into ASPO sites and pretty much freaked out. Then I started poring over the threads here to read intelligent debate to find out if these authors/sites could somehow be disproven. After much reading I came to the conclusion that the ship is going down. I am not convinced of massive immediate die-off but I am convinced of radical and dramatic near term change that will end this civilization as we know it.

By freaked out I mean anger/fear/sadness/depression...now I've kicked into preparation/educator mode. Oh, and The end of suburbia is afairly decent wake up call for those friends of yours who don't like to read. Who doesn't like a good apocolyptic movie?

[Revi]

I learned from guiding wilderness trips with minimal equipment that you can prepare for a storm before it happens, but once it starts, all you can do is help out the people in your tarp, because the others out there in the rain can't be reached. So it is with peak oil. All we can do is all we can do. Once the hard times come, we will just have to weather them. Alternative energy is a great thing to have, but conservation is the real key. If you have shrunk your energy needs so that you can get along with very little, you'll do okay. If you are in a position where your energy needs are immense and you have to pay for them, you are in a leaky tarp in a thunderstorm. Good luck.

[Liamj]

Was (stilll am really) a greenie and antiglobalista, and for some years saw dieoff & Campbell+Leherrere as spoiling efforts by some loopy PR agency. Then around 2002 got irritated enough to think, 'RIGHT, Prove this shit is shit'. Thus endeth one chapter, and another began.
Within few months was >50% convinced. An open media friend said we should start compiling relevant news and research, see which way it points - that took me up to 75% convinced within a year (cos nearly all current events suggest peak, imho). Then in 2004? cornered Samsam Bakhtiari after a talk for some pretty pointed questions, he took me up to 95% convinced. The continuing avoidance of the issue by (nearly all) of my own governments spineless seat warmers was icing i didn't really need.

Agree that peak & implications of peak are issues worth separating. And agree that in the long run we're all dead, but i've heard mixed reviews of what comes after and that it might even be nonsmoking and asexual! So will make best of here and now.. back to lashing deckchairs.

[Revi]

I certainly believe that peak oil is happening, but am very careful not to get dragged into the doomer's camp. The complacency that comes with some of their doomsaying is not good for me, psychologically. Even if the ship's going down, I prefer to think I'll be among the survivors. Even if I'm not I won't give up hope. This is part of my American viewpoint. We can do this. The change in our lifestyle has already benefitted our family. Peak oil pushed us to do it. That's a good thing.

[PeakGeek]

Mankinds continual percieved need for economic growth

The reality that the world fuel tank maintain the economy and the growth

Without the fuel (Or percieved level of fuel) - growth stops - Add in Human Nature with a Population only at it's level because of cheap oil - I don't see the outcome as pretty...

[Jake_old]

good first post peakgeek.