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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Pessimist or optimist?

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Generally speaking, humans are driven to:

Poll ended at Sun 31 Oct 2004, 23:53:47

do the right thing and make good choices
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do the wrong thing and make bad choices
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Total votes : 22

Pessimist or optimist?

Postby jato » Fri 01 Oct 2004, 23:53:47

How does this effect how we think about Peak Oil?
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Postby MonteQuest » Sat 02 Oct 2004, 00:05:10

People are unaware that they are unaware. Most people slumber through school and never harbor an original thought. The blind leading the blind. The media is the massage. I could plagiaize all night.
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Postby Concerned » Sat 02 Oct 2004, 00:32:44

How about adding

c. do the right thing and make bad choices
d. do the wrong thing and make good choices

Then I would pick c over a
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Postby Rembrandt » Sat 02 Oct 2004, 06:41:17

This is wayy to typical black and white (western) thinking. There is no absolute right and wrong. It's all about relativity.

I don't know what the "right" and "wrong" choices are. You choose something and it works out fine for you or not. You can learn from bad situations and some would view those choices that lead you to those situations as bad but you learned from them right?? so are they right or are they wrong (from your own point of view)

They are both.

Besides that who can say it is bad or good if the human race dies out? (only someone who fully understands the universe and is allmighty.. are you? no... so you can't say if it's right or wrong. :P

If you find this post disturbing just ignore it i guess
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Postby smiley » Sat 02 Oct 2004, 09:23:51

Mankind is still very much alive, so they must have been doing something right.

We've been certainly making better choices than the Dodo, the Mammoth and countless other species.
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Postby Concerned » Sat 02 Oct 2004, 09:51:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
Mankind is still very much alive, so they must have been doing something right.

We've been certainly making better choices than the Dodo, the Mammoth and countless other species.


In the history of this earth man has occupied but the most brief instant of time so called modern industrial civilization even less.

I would not place too great a stake on the future of man being solidified as the dominant species on this planet for all eternity.

The Dodo made good choices until humans came along, the dinosaurs made good choices until some asteroid came along and humans are increasing their numbers (making good choices??) until what comes along? Could PO or environmental damage be something that tips the balance on our dominance.

If you've ever been involved in an accident even something minor e.g. falling down, burning yourself, cutting your finger before the accident happens you don't have any idea that something is going wrong by the time you realise it's too late to stop and take corrective action. This is why the accident takes place.

The bigger the accident the more difficult it is to take corrective action. If you stumble you might regain your balance and twist your ankle or pull a muscle, if you fall you might be able to roll on to some grass or put out your hands to soften the blow, if your on the edge of a steep cliff well you're probably going to die.
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Postby smiley » Sat 02 Oct 2004, 12:21:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he bigger the accident the more difficult it is to take corrective action. If you stumble you might regain your balance and twist your ankle or pull a muscle, if you fall you might be able to roll on to some grass or put out your hands to soften the blow, if your on the edge of a steep cliff well you're probably going to die.


You cannot prevent an accident. Survival is thus based on making prudent choices beforehand. The choice not to stand on a edge of a cliff for instance.

The dodo greatly increased the risk of becoming extinct by choosing not to fly and to grow fat. One can debate whether that was a choice or just some evolutionary mechanism, however in that respect one can also debate to what extend humanity makes its own choices. Do we choose to take this road or are we just victims of our own genetic programming?

If you assume that we're capable of making our own choices one must admit that we have made the right choices in the pasts. Mankind has endured a lot of disasters (floods, meteor strikes, ice ages, diseases) and came out on top as the most successful and adaptable species of this planet.

"Thus, from the war on nature, from famine and death, the most exalted object which we are capable of conceiving, namely, the production of the higher animals directly follows."

Charles Robert Darwin, The origin of the Species, 1859
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Postby Jack » Sat 02 Oct 2004, 12:37:33

Actually, humankind is a walking, talking example of a greedy algorithm.

People tend to make good decisions on short term matters. They tend not to be aware of longer term situations, and their actions with regard to long term matters are overpowered by their short term orientation.

Simple example - long term, a person wishes to lose weight. Short term, the same person sees and wants a donut. Guess which tendency will win?

The same dynamic applies to oil and the environment. Long term, we all want a healthy clean environment. Short term, we want lots of things that - as a direct consequence of their creation and use - injure the environment. Notice which option the great majority chooses.
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Postby MonteQuest » Sat 02 Oct 2004, 12:49:42

Dodo birds were once the inhabitants of Mauritius, a small, oyster-shaped island which lies approximately 500 miles east of Madagascar. The Dutch colonized Mauritius in 1644 . The primary causes of their total extinction in 1681 were the destruction of the forest by man (which cut off the Dodo's food supply), and the animals that the sailors brought with them, including cats, rats, and pigs, which destroyed Dodo nests.

The Dodo's stubby wings and heavy, ungainly body tell us that the bird was flightless. Moreover, its breastbone is too small to support the huge pectoral muscles a bird this size would need to fly. Yet scientists believe that the Dodo evolved from a bird capable of flight into a flightless one. When an ancestor of the Dodo landed on Mauritius, it found a habitat with plenty of food and no predators. It therefore did not need to fly, and, as flying takes a great deal of energy, it was more efficient for the bird to remain on the ground. Eventually, the flightless Dodo evolved. There is no debate as to whether this was a mechanism of evolution. Man may choose to be fat and lazy, but the Dodo did not.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ankind has endured a lot of disasters (floods, meteor strikes, ice ages, diseases) and came out on top as the most successful and adaptable species of this planet.


Perhaps so, but it has come at a great price in the loss of habitat, diversity, pollution, environmental degradation, climatic change, and an arrogant attitude towards other life on the planet. As to mankind being the most successful and adaptable, I think the rat and the cockroach have us beat.
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Postby MonteQuest » Sat 02 Oct 2004, 13:08:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ankind is still very much alive, so they must have been doing something right. We've been certainly making better choices than the Dodo, the Mammoth and countless other species.


You can't be serious?

Here is another stunning example of the human potential for destruction:

Passenger Pigeons lived in the eastern United States from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico, breeding in their northern habitats and wintering in the southern part of their range. They migrated across this range in numbers so huge that their flocks darkened the sky. A writer once described a migrating flock of the pigeons as "a column, eight or ten miles in length . . . resembling the windings of a vast and majestic river." In 1808 a single flock in Kentucky was estimated to contain over 2 billion birds.
During the years of westward expansion, enormous numbers of eastern chestnut and oak trees, the main source of food for the Passenger Pigeon, were cleared to make way for farms, homesteads, and towns. Moreover, the birds were believed to be a menace to crops, while they seemed to be an inexhaustible supply of food for both people and their pigs. With the extension of the railroad in the 1850s, the pigeons could be easily shipped to city markets, increasing the numbers in which they were hunted. The combination of all these factors wiped out the Passenger Pigeon. The last one, which lived in the Cincinnati Zoological Garden, died on September 1, 1914.
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Postby MonteQuest » Sat 02 Oct 2004, 13:18:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f you've ever been involved in an accident even something minor e.g. falling down, burning yourself, cutting your finger before the accident happens you don't have any idea that something is going wrong by the time you realise it's too late to stop and take corrective action.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou cannot prevent an accident. Survival is thus based on making prudent choices beforehand. The choice not to stand on a edge of a cliff for instance.


In ecology, we have an axiom that states if it becomes apparent to anyone that you have a problem, it is too late to do anything about it. Look at this post on another thread on the Lily Pond Riddle with regard to exponential growth:

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic1885.html

Concerned's point is quite valid.
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Postby superhamzah » Sat 02 Oct 2004, 13:20:40

Mankind was meant to build a civilisation, and to build it well. Going around, scavenging for food, requires a tiny percentage of our intellect.

We're supposed to build, progress, improve and assist.

The amazing thing about humans, is that our natural habitat, can be anything we want it to be. A sprawling city, a tribe in a jungle, deert nomads. Whatever our circumstances, we train ourselves to profit from it. No other life form has any where near that amount of ability.

Surviving, for other creatures requires an upmost effort daily. (except lions, who sleep for 20 hours a day :shock: ) But they're an exception because they're royalty.

For the most part, surviving for humans is easy. If our minds constantly instruct us to do something else, then we are meant to do it, we wouldn't have a large brain for no reason.

The vast amount of human beings, inquire about their existance, the state of the universe, why why why. This is our natural state of existance. To enquire. To seek things, to find answers, surviving is easy.

What human civilisation depends on is purely power. Every human has a given amount of energy, or dedication that he/she would want to expend during their lives. Whatever the situation, this energy or dedication has to be spent. Obviously, if you're poor, and living in extreme conditions, this energy would be spent on food, shelter, protection etc.

Now in a wealthy place like Japan, America or Britain. These things are almost a given. A birth right. so a considerably less amount of effort has to be spent on necessities. But the effort has to be spent, so they improve and improve their lifestyles, or alternatively, help others, or both.

But helping others, would take a lot of effort, thereby slowing down personal progress.

This is a very simple concept and i'm probably stating the obvious. But sometimes the obvious seems to be forgotten, and people start having crazy ideas. But materialistic progress is just that, the more material you have and the more greedy you are, the more you make personal progress.
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Postby MonteQuest » Sat 02 Oct 2004, 13:20:52

The Riddle's answers can be found here:

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic1885-0-asc-15.html
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Postby Xenophyte » Sat 02 Oct 2004, 15:20:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ankind was meant to build a civilisation, and to build it well. Going around, scavenging for food, requires a tiny percentage of our intellect.


But, apparently, sitting on our asses--watching insipid sitcoms or doing busy work inside a cubicle--is so much more stimulating to our minds.
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Postby Concerned » Sat 02 Oct 2004, 17:34:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The bigger the accident the more difficult it is to take corrective action. If you stumble you might regain your balance and twist your ankle or pull a muscle, if you fall you might be able to roll on to some grass or put out your hands to soften the blow, if your on the edge of a steep cliff well you're probably going to die.


You cannot prevent an accident. Survival is thus based on making prudent choices beforehand. The choice not to stand on a edge of a cliff for instance.


Exactly "you cannot prevent an accident". Now Im no expert however consider if all this advanced industrialization is in fact an accident of mammoth proportions and only our collective hubris is stopping us from seeing it. You know the old line about our ingenuity will get us out of any pickle. Right?

By the time natures feedback loop comes back instead of stumbling to recover like CFC's and ozone layer depletion a future feedback loop sees humanity standing over a cliff and facing death.

I will add that man depends absolutely 100% on nature not the other way around. This planet will continue to exist without humans if it came to that and there is billions of years evidence to support this assertion.
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Postby Concerned » Sat 02 Oct 2004, 18:02:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
Mankind was meant to build a civilisation, and to build it well. Going around, scavenging for food, requires a tiny percentage of our intellect.


I agree it's natures way. I would argue however that our form of expansion more closely follows that of a virus killing it host or the algae in the pond example. That is perfectly in line with natures dictates but very base.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
We're supposed to build, progress, improve and assist.

The amazing thing about humans, is that our natural habitat, can be anything we want it to be. A sprawling city, a tribe in a jungle, deert nomads. Whatever our circumstances, we train ourselves to profit from it. No other life form has any where near that amount of ability.


Anything as long as it's earth, just don't mention the space station :) If you seize on this I can elaborate why the space station can't exist without earth :razz:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
Surviving, for other creatures requires an upmost effort daily. (except lions, who sleep for 20 hours a day ) But they're an exception because they're royalty.


Sorry to say not royalty and perhaps humans could learn something from lions. Say lions inherited some of mankinds "work ethic" and really started going for it?

So the lions begin to kill more prey so they can increase their numbers which would allow them to kill yep you guessed it even more prey. Where do you think this would leave the lions? It's just not the prey who would be dead once the Zebra or Wilderbeast would be gone the lions would be going soon after. Much like the virus on the host.

So the lions being "lazy" is really a survival mechanism that preserves a natural balance.
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Postby smiley » Sat 02 Oct 2004, 20:37:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is no debate as to whether this was a mechanism of evolution. Man may choose to be fat and lazy, but the Dodo did not.


You're right I wrote that to provoke. The debate is really whether man has a choice. Choice means that you can somehow override nature's programming. If you say that the decision of the dodo male to breed with the fattest woman available was not a choice then you might ask yourself: to what extend we are capable of making choices?

Sure we're a lot more intelligent than the dodo, but when making a decision we usually don't actually use that intelligence. When you make a decision you do that based on a 'gut' feeling. When you look for a breeding partner you search for something untouchable called 'love'.

Those are nature's subtle ways to tell you what is good for you and the human race. Just a few lines of nature's programming embedded somewhere deep inside you.

You cannot override that system. How many times have you asked yourself:" this is stupid I shouldn't be doing this?" and ended up doing it anyway? Those decisions usually do make sense from an evolutionary viewpoint.

When I read the 'Origin of the species' for the first time it was a revelation. I always thought of nature as a complex, harmonious and balanced system system. I saw the humans as an odd factor, disturbing and destroying the harmony.

Well, it is not. It is a bloody war out there. I went a couple of weeks on holidays and the plants in my garden started killing each other. Three weeks and 2 species were extinct (well in my garden at least).

This natures most successful formula. Multiply, spread and kill anything which stands in your way. If man would have stayed in his cave he would by now probably be extinct despite his intelligence. He survived because he ventured out of his cave and started colonising the world, adapting the land to his purposes.

We're no different then ants and rabbits. And like ants and rabbits we also destroy our environment. We're shooting rabbits in the dunes right now, because they undermine the dunes and they destroy the vegetation which holds the dunes together. If we wouldn't do that, the region would flood, killing us and the rabbits alike. We're clearly not the only ones with self-destructive tendencies.

Do we have a choice in that? I seriously doubt it.
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Postby MonteQuest » Sat 02 Oct 2004, 21:49:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', ' ')

When I read the 'Origin of the species' for the first time it was a revelation. I always thought of nature as a complex, harmonious and balanced system system. I saw the humans as an odd factor, disturbing and destroying the harmony.

We're no different then ants and rabbits. And like ants and rabbits we also destroy our environment. We're shooting rabbits in the dunes right now, because they undermine the dunes and they destroy the vegetation which holds the dunes together. If we wouldn't do that, the region would flood, killing us and the rabbits alike. We're clearly not the only ones with self-destructive tendencies


You slay me. The only reason the rabbits are overrunning the sand dunes is most likely that it's only predator, i.e., a fox, wolf, bobcat, etc., has been killed off by man, or it was introduced where there was no natural predation. Nature has checks and balances that man is always disrupting as we have seen in the two examples I posted earlier.

When you read Darwin's work, I guess you must have skimmed over a few paragraphs, or you didn't comprehend what he wrote. Any given species adapts to changes in their environment not by making choices or by some innate "gut" feeling, but by natural selection of survival of the fittest. Not the strongest or toughest, but the most correct match to their current environment. If not by a conscious or programmed choice, then by what means, you ask?

The answer is by random genetic mutation. Those individuals that are born with genetic mutations that enhance their ability to survive and reproduce breed with others with similar enhancements. Over time, these survival characteristics become dominant in the gene pool and we see changes in their physical appearance or in their behavior, or both. Darwin used the finches and their different beak evolutions to portray this mechanism.

To what extent is mankind capable of making choices, you ask? Man is different from all other animals in a number of ways:

He is able to reason and philosophize about life. Only man possesses true language and conceptual thought. Another difference is that man can record and determine history. Man is an economic being, able to transact complicated business and to administer goods and services under his control. Man is an aesthetic being, capable of perceiving and appreciating beauty and intangible values. Man is an ethical being. He can distinguish between right and wrong. We could also add such things as: creativity, invention, imagination, abstract reasoning, love (at various levels), a will, and a conscience.


Mark Twain said, "Man is the only animal that blushes - and the only animal that needs to!"
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Postby Itch » Sat 02 Oct 2004, 21:53:03

Humans never evolved to build complex civilizations; they were made to hunt and gather, which has been the primary way of life for the majority of their existence. For someone to say that this way of life requires little intelligence is the same kind of person who would die within days if he and -- to be fair, because humans were also born to work together -- another group of like-minded people found themselves in the middle of the same wilderness their ancestors came from.

Hunting was never an easy task; most prey animals, like deer, can know your exact location from a half-mile away just from picing up a human scent. Even today, with scent-covering clothing, guns, tree stands, lures, and other advanced shit, hunters still come home without one kill. I think it would require much more intelligence and strategy to capture and kill an animal that has superior senses with the most primitive tools.

Of course, since we're all much smarter now, I'm sure all of us could kill, clean, skin, and properly butcher a wide variety of animals with using nothing but sticks and wits; I'm sure it requires no effort or intelligence to find, prepare, and eat plants that won't turn human guts into liquid shit.

It's easy to shit on the hunter-gatherers when you not only have strangers take care of you and keep you in line, but also have a woefully inaccurate view of what humans have been doing for the majority of their existence.

Here's a decent essay about the consequences of the partial transition from gathering to agriculture:

http://www.agron.iastate.edu/courses/agron342/diamondmistake.html
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Postby MonteQuest » Sat 02 Oct 2004, 22:09:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Itch', '
')Here's a decent essay about the consequences of the partial transition from gathering to agriculture:

http://www.agron.iastate.edu/courses/agron342/diamondmistake.html


Great article, Itch. My post on technology and peak-oil follows the same rationale which is an increase in entropy that leads to chaos.
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