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Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Is The N.A./Global Economy Tanking

Unread postby Gary » Sat 15 Oct 2005, 12:50:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesertBear2', '
')Welcome the new masters of Amerika- big pharmaceutical, financial, and military/industrial corporations.


DesertBear2, I think you've gotten the analysis pretty much right.

The official economists do not admit that we are in trouble, though. That is taboo. How will they try to keep the boat afloat? How will the economic/military/political elite seduce and manipulate people into compliance? I suppose the strategies depend on how tough things along the way.

I get tired of waiting for the change. The suspense is killing me!
(Is that irony?)
pedaling for peace and ecojustice -- Gary
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Re: Is The N.A./Global Economy Tanking

Unread postby rkerver » Thu 20 Oct 2005, 15:48:36

Here's a new reference about the neoconservative takeover the media from someone inside during those times and how it has carried into the Bushwhacker's administration that allowed lies to carry us into Iraq. Just for the truly dispossessed. Please read.
Rise of the 'Patriotic Journalist' by Robert Parry, Consortiumnews.com, October 20, 2005, at CommonDreams

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')color=darkblue]When Republican rule was restored in 2001 with George W. Bush’s controversial “victory,” major news executives and many rank-and-file journalists understood that their careers could best be protected by wrapping themselves in the old red-white-and-blue. “Patriotic” journalism was in; “skeptical” journalism was definitely out.

That tendency deepened even more after the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks as many journalists took to wearing American flag lapels and avoided critical reporting about Bush’s sometimes shaky handling of the crisis.

For instance, Bush’s seven-minute freeze in a second-grade classroom – after being told “the nation is under attack” – was hidden from the public even though it was filmed and witnessed by White House pool reporters. (Millions of Americans were shocked when they finally saw the footage two years later in Michael Moore’s “Fahrenheit 9/11.”)
[/color]

I remember going to see Fahrenheit 9/11 and feeling that intense unsettling at that scene.
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Re: Is The N.A./Global Economy Tanking

Unread postby GoIllini » Thu 20 Oct 2005, 16:15:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fossilnut2', '"')They are, by and large, some of the open hearted and good people in the world, just very misinformed."

I 'used' to defend Americans that way.
"The road to Hell is paved with good intentions, etc."

Not any more. Not since the 'Freedom Fries' culture. The blatant misrepresentation in the UN about WMDs was done by the administration but the American people wanted to believe. They wanted to believe the world is black and white and good and evil and you're with us or against us. Modern USA certainly isn't 1930's Germany but the American public reminded me of the Germans salivating to find a bogeyman to justify marching off on a crusade for some type of misplaced idealism.

2005? Why are you in Iraq? not because of freedom and democracy or any other ideal but only because you can't figure out (as in Vietnam) how the hell to get out. You don't give a hoot about Iraqis but only about American image...the embarassment of leaving with your tail between your legs and going back to eating 'French fries'.

The lack of media is bogus. Reminds me of those German. 'I didn't know'. Baloney. You 'chose' not to know and be blind. The re-election of Bush in 2004 was a statement that Americans have priorities other than a moral and ethical leadership.

You can't hide anymore behind 'ah, shucks, we're really good at heart' anymore. Much of the world sees Americans as no more than the schoolyard bully who has fallen flat on his face in Iraq. We chuckle under our breath and wink at eachother. The question is whether or not the bully will learn once he stands up again. He learned after Vietnam, put the white hat back and regained respect. I don't think, however, after Iraqinam, the American people will 'get it'.


I'm guessing you're French? You guys aren't exactly perfect, either. Now that the oil-for-food scandal's gotten out, even a lot of anti-war folks are speculating that part of the reason the security council voted against the war was kickbacks from the Iraqi government.

A year ago, I would have agreed with you that we're in horrible shape in Iraq. But IMHO, we're about halfway done. The insurgents in Iraq are now focusing on Iraqies, rather than the U.S- and when that happens, they pretty much ruin whatever support base they might have.

I still think the war was incredibly stupid- and I'll never forgive Bush and Cheney for it. But I think that at this point, it's looking different than the total disaster Vietnam was. At least from what CNN's reporting, many of the attacks are Sunnis attacking everyday people for the sake of causing terror. I'm still trying to figure out how an insurgency can sustain itself while doing that- the Vietcong couldn't have done it.

And some of the journalists on CNN are saying that the country is getting better. The number of phone lines in the country is up six-fold since when Saddam was running things, and electronics and home appliances can't come into the country quick enough. Sure, it's not fun with about 12 hours of electricity a day, but people still want them for when there is power.

What if the U.S. is successful in cleaning up Bush's mess and we manage to kick the neocons out of the White House in the process? Will the world still hate us?
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Re: Is The N.A./Global Economy Tanking

Unread postby Snowrunner » Thu 20 Oct 2005, 18:09:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'I')'m guessing you're French? You guys aren't exactly perfect, either. Now that the oil-for-food scandal's gotten out, even a lot of anti-war folks are speculating that part of the reason the security council voted against the war was kickbacks from the Iraqi government.


You're forgetting that quite a few american officials had their hands in the coffers as well.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') year ago, I would have agreed with you that we're in horrible shape in Iraq. But IMHO, we're about halfway done. The insurgents in Iraq are now focusing on Iraqies, rather than the U.S- and when that happens, they pretty much ruin whatever support base they might have.


I'd be careful with such statements. Why would they want to risk alianating their own folks, if they bomb iraqis it's those who are working with the american, the french resistant during the second world war did the same. Not a new tactic by a long shot really.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') still think the war was incredibly stupid- and I'll never forgive Bush and Cheney for it. But I think that at this point, it's looking different than the total disaster Vietnam was. At least from what CNN's reporting, many of the attacks are Sunnis attacking everyday people for the sake of causing terror. I'm still trying to figure out how an insurgency can sustain itself while doing that- the Vietcong couldn't have done it.


So why do you think the Sunni are so stupid? I wouldn't really trust the US media to report the truth, in part because it doesn't align with their idea of what people want to hear, and in part because they don't know themselves.

http://www.fair.org and http://www.mediamatters.org are two good examples of "watchdogs" trying to bring some light in the hole that is mass media these days.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd some of the journalists on CNN are saying that the country is getting better. The number of phone lines in the country is up six-fold since when Saddam was running things, and electronics and home appliances can't come into the country quick enough. Sure, it's not fun with about 12 hours of electricity a day, but people still want them for when there is power.


Yet you shouldn't forget that Iraq was one of the most advanced countries (infrastructure, education and womens rights wise) before the Kuwait invasion. The world community had taken a country well on it's way into the first world and literally bombed and sanctioned it back into the stone age.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat if the U.S. is successful in cleaning up Bush's mess and we manage to kick the neocons out of the White House in the process? Will the world still hate us?


It'll take quite a bit of time for the world to forget. In time, they won't, but for the next ten years or so......
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The Great Global Buyout Bubble (NYT Article)

Unread postby LadyRuby » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 22:23:04

Interesting article...


The Great Global Buyout Bubble
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/13/business/yourmoney/13buyout.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..
"There's no question this is going to end badly for some," said Colin C. Blaydon, a professor at the Tuck School of Management at Dartmouth and the dean emeritus of its Center for Private Equity and Entrepreneurship. "It's almost a classic boom-bust cycle. When you see a big boom, people see the returns, go rushing in, stuff more money in than can be dealt with. Suddenly, something will happen that makes people say: 'Oh, my God! Look at the leverage we've got on these things. Isn't this way too risky? Shouldn't we pull back?' And then the question becomes: Does it crash like a rock or is there an adjustment down over time?"

ALREADY, there are reminders that the business can turn ugly overnight. Thomas H. Lee Partners, the Boston private equity firm famed for buying Snapple for $135 million in 1992 and selling it two years later to Quaker Oats for $1.7 billion, recently was badly burned on its investment in Refco, the commodities trader that filed for bankruptcy protection last month. While the setback has hardly sunk the Lee firm, it is an illustration of how risky these investments can be.
...
[/url]
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Re: The Great Global Buyout Bubble (NYT Article)

Unread postby GoIllini » Mon 14 Nov 2005, 00:57:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', 'I')nteresting article...


The Great Global Buyout Bubble
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/13/business/yourmoney/13buyout.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..
"There's no question this is going to end badly for some," said Colin C. Blaydon, a professor at the Tuck School of Management at Dartmouth and the dean emeritus of its Center for Private Equity and Entrepreneurship. "It's almost a classic boom-bust cycle. When you see a big boom, people see the returns, go rushing in, stuff more money in than can be dealt with. Suddenly, something will happen that makes people say: 'Oh, my God! Look at the leverage we've got on these things. Isn't this way too risky? Shouldn't we pull back?' And then the question becomes: Does it crash like a rock or is there an adjustment down over time?"

ALREADY, there are reminders that the business can turn ugly overnight. Thomas H. Lee Partners, the Boston private equity firm famed for buying Snapple for $135 million in 1992 and selling it two years later to Quaker Oats for $1.7 billion, recently was badly burned on its investment in Refco, the commodities trader that filed for bankruptcy protection last month. While the setback has hardly sunk the Lee firm, it is an illustration of how risky these investments can be.
...
[/url]


I see this as good news. If the buyout firms are holding $100 Billion in cash, this means the country isn't in as quite as much debt as we had thought.

We get a recession when everyone's in way too much debt. We get higher wages and lower prices when everyone but large corporations are in debt.
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Re: The Great Global Buyout Bubble (NYT Article)

Unread postby CARVER » Mon 14 Nov 2005, 09:06:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', '.').. We get a recession when everyone's in way too much debt. We get higher wages and lower prices when everyone but large corporations are in debt.


You completely lost me here (or maybe you were being sarcastic), could you explain this please?

"Everyone in way too much debt", there must be someone on the other side of that balance sheet?

Why would we get higher wages and lower prices when everyone but large corporations are in debt? Wouldn't they just pay it as dividend to their shareholders? Or buy-back stocks? Why would they just give it away for free to us, by giving us higher wages? It is not like there is a huge demand for workers or anything. Most large companies are restructuring which involves mass layoffs. I don't think the shareholders will agree when they say that they will not pay dividend but instead give it away to the employees and the customers by increasing wages and lowering prices.

Those large corporations do not need all of us anymore. They have got our money and assets already. They don't need our labor because they are already producing enough for all those people that still have money and assets.

They are not going to give us more money, just because they have it, so that we can waste their valuable limited resources.

They can just dump a part of the workforce and the production capacity and continue on a smaller scale with a smaller group of 'paticipants', so that they have more resources available for themselves.
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Re: The Great Global Buyout Bubble (NYT Article)

Unread postby grabby » Mon 14 Nov 2005, 12:19:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', 'I')nteresting article...


The Great Global Buyout Bubble
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/13/business/yourmoney/13buyout.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..
"There's no question this is going to end badly for some," said Colin C.
...
[/url]


I see this as good news. If the buyout firms are holding $100 Billion in cash, this means the country isn't in as quite as much debt as we had thought.

.


Get out of debt. That is a good plan.
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Economist demands ethical global economy

Unread postby Carlhole » Sun 05 Mar 2006, 10:45:59

“Competitive policy” needs to be subordinate to “vital policy”

St. Gallen economist Peter Ulrich demands global economy founded on ethical standards.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Current Concerns', 'W')orld-wide desolation is being caused by unrestrained globalization, free-floating capital, and the exploitation of millions of slave workers. Ever since China started playing a strong role on the world stage with its cheapest labour force of almost one billion workers entering the global market, the rich countries in the northern hemisphere have been alerted. Can one compete with a dictatorship like China? Has the concept of economic liberalism reversed itself? Wrong, says Peter Ulrich, who holds a chair in Business Ethics at the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland, and is director of the Institute for Business Ethics at this university. He calls the idea of the “invisible hand”, i.e. the assumption that private profit maximization will lead to prosperity for all, “nirvana economics”. This “metaphysical social welfare fiction,” supported by economic liberalism and today’s Neo-liberals, was to be unveiled long ago. And furthermore, the question is not whether one “can” compete with a dictatorship but whether one “wants” to do so, whether this is morally justifiable and desirable. His answer is a clear No.

Ulrich demands a system that is superordinate to mere competition policy, a framework which the German Ordoliberals around Alexander Ruestow and Wilhelm Roepke named “Vitalpolitik” [vital policy]: What is needed today are UN institutions which represent the humanitarian, social, cultural and ecological points of view in contrast to the pure profit maximization ideology of the WTO, the IMF and the World Bank. To put it bluntly: Yes, to trade with China, but the people here and there must be able to live a self-determined life in dignity as citizens within a state and an economy.
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Re: Economist demands ethical global economy

Unread postby TommyJefferson » Sun 05 Mar 2006, 12:48:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Current Concerns', 'W')hat is needed today are UN institutions which represent the humanitarian, social, cultural and ecological points of view in contrast to the pure profit maximization ideology of the WTO, the IMF and the World Bank.


Hmmm. A world-wide governmnet that could accomplish these goals:

1. Defeating the right-wing agenda of the Bush Administration.

2. Winning a wide-ranging program of reforms that put the well being of the people before private profits.

3. Eventually replacing big business with labor and its allies as the dominant power so as to insure that the rights, economic security and expanding needs of the people become the overriding concern of society.


See: http://www.cpusa.org/article/archive/11/
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Re: Economist demands ethical global economy

Unread postby MrBill » Sun 05 Mar 2006, 15:23:38

There is no conflict in interest between an efficient economy and an ethical economy. Both are possible. However, then consumers will have to save and invest in sustainable technologies, while paying more for everything they consume to reflect their true cost to find, mine, manufacture, recycle, dispose, etc. How they achieve this while preventing others from cheating is a matter for government not for economics. I assume here that the behavior of the government reflects the will of the people. Is it the role of economics to protect jobs in rich world countries or provide jobs in low income countries? If you tell me which is more important, then I can recommend you specific policies. So long as you say both are equally important, then we have a trade off in public policy.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
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Re: Economist demands ethical global economy

Unread postby rogerhb » Sun 05 Mar 2006, 16:51:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I')f you tell me which is more important, then I can recommend you specific policies. So long as you say both are equally important, then we have a trade off in public policy.


Currently its "Guns before butter".
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Re: Economist demands ethical global economy

Unread postby jaws » Sun 05 Mar 2006, 17:02:59

Him and everybody else.

I have to laugh every time someone says "what is needed is [such and such omnipotent government agency]." As if that were possible! I could as well say what is needed is a perfectly kind, omniscient, all-encompassing global hive mind and all our troubles will be resolved.
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Emerging Nations Powering Global Economic Boom (LA Times)

Unread postby Zardoz » Sun 14 May 2006, 12:17:22

And we think it's only the Chinese and Indian yuppies who are going to be chewing up resources. Not only are we racing toward a cliff, we're accelerating our pace. It's like we want to see how far out into the canyon we can fly. The "hard landing" may be harsh beyond anything even the most pessimistic doom-and-gloomers can imagine:

The global economy is on a growth streak that is shaping up to be the broadest and strongest expansion in more than three decades.
__________________________________________

Emerging Nations Powering Global Economic Boom

The expansion is the strongest since the 1970s, with China, India and Russia setting the pace. But many U.S. workers are left behind.

By Tom Petruno, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer

May 14, 2006


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he global economy is on a growth streak that is shaping up to be the broadest and strongest expansion in more than three decades.

Rising spending and investment by consumers and businesses worldwide are boosting national economies on every continent, pushing down unemployment rates in many countries and lifting business earnings and confidence.


{edited by MQ...do not post entire articles, link to them...see the COC.}
{title edited by Shannymara}
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Re: "Demand destruction"? Ha!

Unread postby Heineken » Sun 14 May 2006, 12:29:15

Let's not forget, too, that world population continues to grow by 200,000 people per day, net of deaths. This outstrips any possible contributions from alternative energy and conservation.
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Re: "Demand destruction"? Ha!

Unread postby thor » Sun 14 May 2006, 13:03:05

Now that Chindians are putting their lifetstyles into gear simply implies an accelerated decline of oil and gas reserves. No matter what (educated) fools say about a smooth transition through alternatives. It ain't gonna happen, mother Nature is in the locker room and about to participate in the game. Buckle up.
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Re: "Demand destruction"? Ha!

Unread postby PolestaR » Sun 14 May 2006, 13:11:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'L')et's not forget, too, that world population continues to grow by 200,000 people per day, net of deaths. This outstrips any possible contributions from alternative energy and conservation.


Population growth doesn't necessarily mean peak oil gets here quicker. It's only when that population starts to use more oil that it is a concern. How many years did we go by without China being an oil concern?
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Re: "Demand destruction"? Ha!

Unread postby seldom_seen » Sun 14 May 2006, 13:12:35

The harder they come the harder they fall, one and all.

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Re: "Demand destruction"? Ha!

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Sun 14 May 2006, 13:15:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', 'P')opulation growth doesn't necessarily mean peak oil gets here quicker. It's only when that population starts to use more oil that it is a concern. How many years did we go by without China being an oil concern?


Those 200,000 people gotta eat something, and there's an extremely high probability that something is grown with chemical fertilizers, pesticides, powered irigation and mechanical harvesting. In other words, oil.
The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
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Re: "Demand destruction"? Ha!

Unread postby Zardoz » Sun 14 May 2006, 13:34:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '{')edited by MQ...do not post entire articles, link to them...see the COC.}


Okay, no problem. The only reason I posted the whole thing is that most L.A. Times stories get moved behind their "archive" paywall after 24 hours. If that happens to this one, can I post more excerpts so that those seeing it for the first time could get the gist of the story?
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