[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesertBear2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', ' ')If we are interested to bringing sustainability to the masses then there will need to be a more active dialog and alliance between the secular and religeous sustainability movements.

[EnergySpin]

Dan I do not think we are in disagreement. It might just be a problem with the "written word"
1) Conservation is important regardless of whether Hitsch said it or not. Do you agree with this or not?
2) Economic mitigation is important otherwise people will not stick to the plan. I am not that naive to believe that people will refrain from enviro nastiness if they are hungry , unemployed or their kid dies because they cannot afford Amoxicillin
3) Sorry about the "anti". You and I got the message and I am glad you agree that we should get anti-CnH2n+2.
4) We do agree on the role of the markets and the role of leadership. IMHO the only way for not having a tailspin (defined as images from the 30s, not images from .com bubble) is for the government to step in. I suggest reading Rifkin's book: The European Dream which even though it is not related to peak oil makes a couple of really nice points about the economy in general. John Kenneth Galbraith did highlight many weaknesses of our present system ; his book [i]Culture of Contentment[i] did shape my views when I first read it > 10 yrs ago.
5) the point about efficiency was simple but was phrased in a suboptimal manner. In the 30s they were making what 5 million barrels a day which were used in machines with an efficiency of 10%. This enabled them to perform an effective work of 500K barrels. At 20-30% efficiency you perform twice - thrice the amount of work. This is precisely what A. Lovins has been trying to say and do for the last two decades. Even though I do not share his optimism about the future of the HyperCar ... it is important to stress that efficiency will provide a much needed cushion
6)I do not understand what you mean by What I think you are missing is a notion of the potential impact of letting the market try to adjust to a diminishing resource. . If the markets are let to do their tricks , we might share the same cot in a nice labour camp. I guess it is not something you wish for, but something that you see likely. Furthermore do you dismiss a sound macro-economic policy as the best preventive measure? I do have to point out that if the markets do their tricks with this one do not expect anything different from big government intervention to "save us". It will be one hell of an interesting experiment to watch ... since it will take place with most of the governments of this world up to their neck in debt, with the US the Debt King.
7) I am talking more about the "New Aspo newsletter is GRIM". There were threads about the BNP (British Nationalist Party), more than 1 threads where posts were made debating how best to cull the thread etc. Since these posts keep recycling around here , you will see them if you stick long enough.

Your position on GW is clear this is why I moved up to the next question i.e. the relative ordering of both these problems. I do understand that they evolve on a different temporal scales e.g. peak oil in the next 5-10 years and GW showing its nasty teeth within the next 20-30 but we do need the perspective if we are to make the "right decisions". For example, action to mitigate GW might necessitate we curtail the use of ALL hydrocarbons by > 10% per year . This will definitely economic nastiness and it might necessitate we explore solutions that look much different to our current economic system. Regarding my position on both these issues I think you only need to look at my signature and look at the pics in the following website: http://www.tgv.com/
For the record, I do consider Heinberg and other eco-village utopians naive and potentially dangerous. If you want to take a look at how to build a modern potentially car-free infrastructure look at France (despite the fact they are burning the infrastructure as we speak )

However if you think that we have the ability to preserve suburbia and the car culture, sorry it will not happen.
9) When do we start? Pretty good question and one that every single person in this forum has asked more than 1 times. As far as I am concerned I have started doing it on personal level and have been trying to draw other people's attention to the energy issue. I presume that you do the same, so the question should probably read: "When does everyone else and the rest of the world starts"

[GreyZone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FatherOfTwo', 'G')iven the market's handicap, it is here where I agree completely with Monte. If it turns out that there isn't enough more expensive oil, and if the market is never able to accurately predict this with sufficient warning, (eg. 10-20 years), then when we do hit the event horizon the market will react strongly in an attempt to recalibrate the price of oil. That'll be very disruptive.

[0mar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FatherOfTwo', 'O')ne of my beefs with the doomers is they don’t recognize that in order for the doom scenario to truly materialize, the entire world would have to instantaneously encounter a rapid, systemic decline in oil extraction due solely to geological forces, and that the world would react to this realization in a non-constructive manor. Both of those must happen for the doom scenario to take hold.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('0mar', 'I')n a single quarter, we lose over 1mbd of production per day. Catacysmic enough for ya?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('0mar', 'I')n a single quarter, we lose over 1mbd of production per day. Catacysmic enough for ya?

[0mar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('0mar', 'I')n a single quarter, we lose over 1mbd of production per day. Catacysmic enough for ya?

[doufus]

[topic merged by MQ}

Keeping the middle ground in PO is difficult. Extreme optimists need
to recognise there is a problem. Extreme pessismists need to
recognise that just becuase there is no single solution and that all foreseeable solutions have limitations does not mean the task is impossible.

What is typical of the doomer approach is a fundamental underestimation
of human ingenuity and capacity for organisation and self sacrifice.

While much is made of the Tainter book "analysing" the collapse of
civilisations, notihing is said of the resilience of civilisations. These
have encountered climate change, conflict and natural disasters and
still survived. It's just that this good news doesn't sell copies like
disaster does.

Doomers have an immediate throwing up of the hands that reminds
me of those ridiculous "analyses" that concluded that aliens built the
pyramids and other amazing pre-industrial structures.

Nah, no way that people with levers and wheels could do that. No way
a society could get that organised for that long on a task that would
challenge modern construction project managers and national
budgets. No way people could draw those lines in the Nacza Desert
with a basic knowledge of trigonometry and some common sense.
Nah aliens took them up in spaceships.

See, people are fundamentally stupid, lazy, self interested and unable
to be organised, directed, harnessed and committed to a common
good- even if it's in their interest to do so and they may have no
other practical choice other than picking up a rifle and running.

Nah. It's always impossible. No way we could get to the moon in
sealed bathtub with less computing power than a cellphone. No way.

Yeah it's always time and scale. Too much to change and too little
time. We're all dead or may as well be.

Crap.

As consumers of 25% of the world's energy- most of it on convenience and sloth, Americans have no idea how little energy they need to live a
life that's basically comfortable. From power to gas and energy consumption, no-one I know thinks twice about using ANY energy.

Oh god, declining consumption in a low energy society will cause job losses! Or maybe whole new industries of people creating crafted
goods that last 20 years instead of 1, new waves of technology and
efficiency devices and skill sets. Nah, impossible.

The russians turned tractor factories into tank factories and won, the US
outbuilt the Japanese 5 to 1 in aircraft carriers in WWII, the french
converted their power grid to nukes in 15 years, the germans and
japanese took utterly levelled cities and became industrial giants
again in 20 years.

When up against it, the capacity for human beings to do amazing
things has always been amazing.

If doomers ran the world, we'd still be in caves because there's no
way we could survive out there on the plains amongst the carnivores.
No way. There's thousands of lions out there and only a handful of
us. Do the numbers man, do the numbers!

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', ' ')The russians turned tractor factories into tank factories and won, the US outbuilt the Japanese 5 to 1 in aircraft carriers in WWII, the french converted their power grid to nukes in 15 years, the germans and japanese took utterly levelled cities and became industrial giants
again in 20 years.

When up against it, the capacity for human beings to do amazing
things has always been amazing.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', ' ')Or maybe whole new industries of people creating crafted goods that last 20 years instead of 1,

[doufus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', ' ')The russians turned tractor factories into tank factories and won, the US outbuilt the Japanese 5 to 1 in aircraft carriers in WWII, the french converted their power grid to nukes in 15 years, the germans and japanese took utterly levelled cities and became industrial giants
again in 20 years.

When up against it, the capacity for human beings to do amazing
things has always been amazing.

[doufus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', ' ')Or maybe whole new industries of people creating crafted goods that last 20 years instead of 1,

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', ' ')yep, you're all simple quitters.

[doufus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', ' ')yep, you're all simple quitters.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', ' ')
Well i note your amazing ability to lock a so called intro to peak oil
issues so no-one could comment.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', '
')1. A few quality things may be better for us all than hundreds of
crap things from K-Mart. Your choice.

[doufus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', '
')1. A few quality things may be better for us all than hundreds of
crap things from K-Mart. Your choice.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', '
')You think being able to buy a heap of useless, energy guzzling crap from
china is a standard of living?

[doufus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', '
')You think being able to buy a heap of useless, energy guzzling crap from
china is a standard of living?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', ' ')I'm sure you'd agree that transitioning to a lo energy
society will be painful for such a wasteful economy as the US. In such a
transition people will be hurt. In my view, i can only see it being
mitigated by broad and ruthless government intervention....

I hope we never get there. I hope conservation and nukes get us
there. I hope personal accounting for every joule is the norm.
I hope we value energy like water in a desert. If not then government
will make us.