[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', ' ')I have been noticing that immigrant groups like Mexicans and Filipinos have increasingly embraced car pooling...

[MonteQuest]

My prediction from Dec 2004:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'T')o curb the inflation, the Fed will raise interest rates. And as the price of food and other essential commodities rise--along with house payments tied to variable rate mortgages--luxuries and dispensable goods and services will drop out of the family budgets and the standard of living will decline and unemployment will rise.

[Daryl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '.').The Federal Reserve has outsourced another American job. China will now dictate the value of the U.S. dollar..

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', ' ')The Chinese USD reserve situation is quite the opposite of what some people suggest: it is the US that is holding China's dollars hostage.

[creg]

Can we tell if Chinese purchases are a significant part of the rise in precious metals? Thanks.

[Bandage]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')hanks for the accolades. A die-off will occur, but more slowly than most think unless something other than a decline in energy production sparks it. We simply cannot sustain this population level without cheap and easily accessible oil. But in the meantime, we will have to share what we already have with the newcomers. The population will continue to grow even in the face of declining food. It is called 'overshoot."

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bandage', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')hanks for the accolades. A die-off will occur, but more slowly than most think unless something other than a decline in energy production sparks it. We simply cannot sustain this population level without cheap and easily accessible oil. But in the meantime, we will have to share what we already have with the newcomers. The population will continue to grow even in the face of declining food. It is called 'overshoot."

[jato]

Since we don't know what the decline curve will be, here are a few different options.

[Schneider]

to jato :

From what i can read here and there,it seem that a decline of 5% is likely to happen..it would mean a lost of more than 14 millions barrels a day in less than 10 years !

With runaway increase of population worldwide,i can't see how we could smoothly deal with even 3-4% depletion ..

No matter how hard i try to rationalise the enormous danger of the situation,i can't stop myself to see a perfect recipe for a disaster of biblic proportions !

Schneider
French-Canadian

[crapattack]

seadragon wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')on't know where they're going but I'm thinking about Canada...lots fewer people.

[RacerJace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crapattack', 's')eadragon wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')on't know where they're going but I'm thinking about Canada...lots fewer people.

[UnpreparedMF]

I'm staying right here is flat 'ol Illinois. Hopefully, if I time it right I can divest my 401k and buy lots of farmland at $3k an acre and start putting indentured suburbanites to work growing all kinds of crops for feed, food and biodiesel production.

I'm thinking that if I have about 3-5 years, I'll be OK. Anyone who wants to work can come, even Canadians. I'll be right there with you. I was a Marine and as such, I'll never ask anyone to do work I wouldn't do myself. What I'm sorely lacking is knowledge and seed stock. I'll have some land soon, so I can start small. then as the economy tanks, I'll start buying up property and expanding operations. My grandpappy was a farmer, and with the right books and a little experimentation, I think it will work.

Sound like a plan???

[SoothSayer]

>> I have been noticing that immigrant groups like Mexicans and Filipinos have increasingly embraced car pooling...

In the UK they also have driving licence pooling ... why bother taking the difficult UK driving test if you can borrow the paperwork!

[MonteQuest]

It begins...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest Dec 2004', 'S')ince virtually all commodities use petroleum fuel to move from production to consumption, as fuel prices rise whether by market forces or by currency decisions by OPEC to offset the loss in revenue as the dollar declines due to our trade imbalance, all commodity prices must also rise. Whew! What a mouthful! This will create inflation. To curb the inflation, the Fed will raise interest rates. And as the price of food and other essential commodities rise--along with house payments tied to variable rate mortgages--luxuries and dispensable goods and services will drop out of the family budgets and the standard of living will decline and unemployment will rise.

[SoothSayer]

As hydrocarbon depletion becomes reality to everyone, the house of cards will fall.

Remember, peak oil is about running out of cheap, readily available energy, not energy. The economics will be felt long before the decline itself.

Exactly! I just have no idea what will happen when the "fore shock" hits the public ... or when it will happen.

Their cars will still be running, BigMacs will still be available, prices will still be roughly OK .... BUT ... many will feel like they have just been to the medical consultant who has given them some very bad - but hard to grasp - news.

"Sorry, you have maybe 3 years without many problems - but you should forget all about your pension, that foreign cruise, that retirement cottage in the countryside"

[kokoda]

If peak oil strikes sooner, rather than later, the effects will be disasterous ... and breathtakingly fast.

Wall street crashed in 1929, in my country, Australia, unemployment peaked at nearly 30% about three years later.

Capitalism can only survive with sustained growth. It relies on this growth in order to repay loans and invest in new ventures.

If you do anything to seriously hinder this growth then the whole economy will collapse like a house of cards.

[sch_peakoiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')t begins...
Remember, peak oil is about running out of cheap, readily available energy, not energy. The economics will be felt long before the decline itself.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')t begins...
Remember, peak oil is about running out of cheap, readily available energy, not energy. The economics will be felt long before the decline itself.

[sch_peakoiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')re we not feeling the effects of no spare capacity right now? Will not the price of oil rise before we ever see rationing?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')re we not feeling the effects of no spare capacity right now? Will not the price of oil rise before we ever see rationing?