[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', '
')With regards to the Saudi Arabia statment about no new discoveries, I will refer you to this article (awesome read by the way):
http://www.condition.org/sm4602.htm

[donshan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Joe0Bloggs', 'H')ow about this?

We've heard a hundred times that the easy oil is on the upslope of the curve and the hard oil is on the downslope.

Could it be that tar sands, oil shale etc. is our hard oil?
]

[GreyZone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Consider, for example, the most recently discovered oil frontier in the world, Kazakhstan, and its major finding--the gigantic Kashagan field. Geological estimates about the general area around Kashagan (the Kazakh North Caspian Sea Shelf) have existed for decades, but they only indicated the possibility of hydrocarbon deposits. After the first advanced geological appraisal was conducted by international oil companies in the second half of the 1990s, the area was deemed to hold between 2 and 4 Bbl. In 2002, after completion of only two exploration and two appraisal wells in the Kashagan field, estimates were officially raised to 7 to 9 Bbl of producible reserves. In February 2004, after four more exploration wells in the area, they were raised again to 13 Bbl. This is only the beginning, because this area spans over 5500 sq km, and six exploration wells are a modest indicator of future potential.

[Flow]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '
')They are predicting a 50% decline in production from existing fields worldwide in the next 10 years.

See the graph on P.6 (P.4 by the page numbers):
Exxon-Mobil

2003 production from existing fields was 120 (oil & gas expressed in Millions of barrels/day oil equivalent). This will decline to 60 by 2015. We will need to find & develop new production of 100 to meet projected demand of 160 in 2015. That's almost a new Saudi Arabia every year.

[Flow]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '
')
Thanks to new exploration, drilling, and recovery technology, the worldwide finding and development cost per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) has dramatically declined over the last 20 years, from an average of about $21 in 1979-81 to under $6 in 1997-99 (in 2001 dollars)

[Flow]

Oh yeah, with regards to the comment about needing water to get the oil, I gotta believe we can get that water to them if needed. If we can get enough water to Arizona and New Mexico for major cities like Phoniex, we can can get enough water to Alberta to get oil out of the ground (more money in that oil that supplying water to PHX).

[0mar]

Tar sands will always be a bit player in the petroleum industry.

It is simply too difficult to ramp production up to where we need it. The best estimates place Alberta producing 2.5mbd by 2015. That is simply not enough. It won't even offset the decline in the lower 48 never mind contribute meaningfully to the global supply.

Tar sands are fundamentally different from oil fields and there is no reason to believe that Alberta can simply mine as much as they as fast as they can. Total recoverable reserves means nothing in this context.

It basically boils down to this:

If you have 10 billion dollars in the bank but you are only allowed to withdraw 50 bucks a month, can you still make rent?

[bobcousins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', '(')2) It says we were producing over 120 million barrels of oil a day at this time (true number is closer to 80-85 million barrels a day).

[mididoctors]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '
')They are predicting a 50% decline in production from existing fields worldwide in the next 10 years.

See the graph on P.6 (P.4 by the page numbers):
Exxon-Mobil

2003 production from existing fields was 120 (oil & gas expressed in Millions of barrels/day oil equivalent). This will decline to 60 by 2015. We will need to find & develop new production of 100 to meet projected demand of 160 in 2015. That's almost a new Saudi Arabia every year.

[ashurbanipal]

Flow,

I seriously question the accuracy of the data you've cited. Those three spreadsheets you linked to seem to present impossible data, unless i'm just misinterpretting them (quite possible as I didn't explore the website and so only have the data itself as context).

But if you sum the data for 2004 across all three sheets, the numbers are outrageous. The header on each spreadsheet says that the numbers represent thousand of barrels per day production from each listed country by month. If we take them as simply representing that on what I would take to be a common reading, and do the sums, we'd get that the world produced 712 billion barrels of oil in 2004, or about 1.9 billion per day.

If we take it that this is total production, then the world only produced 1.9 billion barrels in all of 2004. The first number is way too high, the second way too low.

The closest I can get these numbers to come to other production numbers I've seen is by taking each cell to represent thousands of barrels per month (not day). Doing that, we get 23 billion barrels--at a rate of consumption set at 85 million barrels, though, that's only 275 days of supply. While that comes much closer than the other numbers, it's still obviously flawed. We should have produced roughly 30 billion barrels in 2004.

Again, maybe I'm looking at the data wrong, and if I am, if someone could help me understand it I'd really appreciate it. Like I said, I've no context but what's in the spreadsheets themselves. But taken at face value, the numbers just don't seem like they can be right.

[Taskforce_Unity]

Im not going into this in detail now. There is a LOT of hogwash in this thread. My report on exactly this topic will be released next week so you can read it in full detail then (100+ pages).

Unconventional oil production until 2030 lies at maximum around 13 mb/d (5 mb/d from tar sands Canada, 5 mb/d from Venezuela + some others). The IEA predicts 10.2 mb/d of unconventional production in 2030.

Oil shale is NOT geologically, economical and energetically sound to produce. Maybe 30 years from now. But definetly not SOON

Average decline (type II and III lies between 2 mb/d to 4 mb/d at the moment. This is an estimate of oil companies,analists like me, ODAC and the IEA. NOT the rosy 570.000 b/d that is being cited by flow.

In fact the IEA thinks that 6 mb/d decline (type I + II + III ) is already happening NOW! And yes i have charts, figures and numbers from all these sources to back this up.

[julianj]

TFU: We all look forward to it. Will you be posting it here or a link?

cheers

Julian

[EnergySpin]

Because I say so

[Typhoon]

Actually, the Kashagan oilfield was identified before 1980 but not drilled until several years ago for various reasons. There's no doubting that supergiant oil discoveries fell off, and it's fair to say that more won't be found. When I say "no more", I'm talking about Prudhoe Bay-sized fields...there are probably some >2 billion bbl fields left to be found, but only a handful. Discoveries of giant fields have fallen off, even over the 2000 to 2005 timeframe. In 2003 and 2004, no >500 million bbl fields were found!

[frankthetank]

THis is a VERY STRONG point...one which i thought early on in my PO lifestyle!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')inally, there's the old adage to "follow the money" when trying to see what the big boys really believe. There are and have been no new refinery projects in the cards for years by the major oil companies. Since these typically take 15 years to bring online and 20-30 years to make a profit on the original investment, that speaks very loudly to me that the majors don't believe in a 2037 peak. If they did, they would have built to take advantage of another 32 years of growth but they've not spent a dime on conventional refining capacity and even exploration is down. Instead, the majors are mostly betting heavily on tar sands, oil shales, getting involved in coal-to-liquids projects, etc. They are not investing like there are 32 years of growth left. They are investing like conventional oil is very close to peak (1-10 years). When I couple those observations with available production and decline data, I find a near term peak far more plausible than a 3+ decade distant peak.

[Antimatter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n 2003 and 2004, no >500 million bbl fields were found!

[Flow]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', '
')Flow,
Give up buddy. Are current lifestyle is not sustainable. You may like the way your living, but change is "inevitable".

[Flow]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Antimatter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n 2003 and 2004, no >500 million bbl fields were found!

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', 'B')TW, Brazil just found an oil field in the deep waters about 50 miles off short that has about 1.229 billion barrles, expected to produce 773 million barrels of oil by 2025. (source: http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/artic ... E_ID=47265 )

[bobcousins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Antimatter', '[')url=http://www.energybulletin.net/2681.html]http://www.energybulletin.net/2681.html[/url]

Thats boe but the oil dominant discoveries likely had over 500mb of liquids.