[ace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'I') would quickly want to add that in order to achieve true "sustainability" on a local level, the states and nations of the world must cooperate in a multilateral way, through the UN.


The UN is more relevant than ever.

[bobcousins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ace', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'I') would quickly want to add that in order to achieve true "sustainability" on a local level, the states and nations of the world must cooperate in a multilateral way, through the UN.

The UN is more relevant than ever.

[johnmarkos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', 'S')ince you like "The Limits to Growth," johnmarkos, you might like an essay that Donella Meadows wrote in 1999:

Leverage Points: Places to Interview in a System (PDF)

"Folks who do system analysis have a great belief in "leverage points." These are places within a complex system (a corporation, an economy, a living body, a city, an ecosystem) where a small change in one thing can cause big changes in everything."

http://www.sustainer.org/pubs/Leverage_Points.pdf

===========

As an old guy, when I think about solutions to world problems, I tend to value things like persistence and pacing. One needs to find an area or a role that one can happily live with over the years, since PO is not going to be solved in one intense effort.

[Liamj]

Without rereading it, I think Ms. Meadows means that changing paridgms is analogous to changing operating systems, or core assumptions about the way the world works. Many other things may eventually change in consequence of that, or not very much, but such a road to change is more likely to be sustained than merely changing specific behaviours and keeping the same operating system.
e.g. telling your teenager a hundred times not to leave the lights on wont work half as well as taking it out of their allowance, or pointing out that extra cost means no holiday trip this year. New info/signal has changed his paradigm.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')As much as I appreciate your effort, isn't it kind of a vanity? Do you really think that we in this little forum can change this engine of mass spiritual, intellectual, financial, and bio-chemical self-deception that is dragging this system to judgement day?

[Liamj]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('johnmarkos', 'T')his thread is an outgrowth of my reading and review of Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update, by Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows, ....

[johnmarkos]

Bump: I've reached a milestone in this project. Eliminating the private automobile will be a big step towards a sustainable future.

Where should I focus my inquiry next? Food and agriculture? Housing? These are more complicated and I'll need to do more reading. It might take me a year or so before I post on this topic again.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('johnmarkos', 'B')ump: I've reached a milestone in this project. Eliminating the private automobile will be a big step towards a sustainable future.

Where should I focus my inquiry next? Food and agriculture? Housing? These are more complicated and I'll need to do more reading. It might take me a year or so before I post on this topic again.

[nocar]

I believe both Johnmarkos and Ludi are right.

Food is crucial. Getting rid of private automobiles helps a lot.

Most oil is used for running automobiles. Many have suggested biofuels to run cars instead - but unfortunately, biofuels will compete with food production. And automobiles take up lots of space - from driveways on suburban laws to gas stations, parking lots at stores and superhighways - areas that could to used for growing food or putting solar PVs on.

nocar

[GreyZone]

In your original post, JohnMarkos, you stated that you wanted to avoid discussions of success or failure. However, this is simply does not work in the real world. Almost all "non-normal" planning comes from considering deviations from the normal day to day living and how probable that deviation actually is. Sometimes this might result in making subjective judgements about other people's willingness to prepare. For instance, in hurricane country I've often met people who don't think it will happen to them. Often they have moved to the area recently and don't appreciate what a hurricane can do. I have to leave these people out of my planning because I do not know how or when they will react to an approaching hurricane. On the other hand, my next door neighbor has been through as many as I have (at least) and I know that I can turn to him for advice and/or assistance to some degree and he knows the reverse is true as well.

The reason I point this out is that before you can really decide what an appropriate level of planning would be is that you must consider how likely other people are to participate in that plan at the time you begin to execute it. If the likelihood of participation is low, your plan must reflect that. If it is high, then your plan can include that as well.

In my opinion, widespread acknowledgement and reaction to peak oil (and more importantly the geopolitical and economic fallout from peak oil) will not begin until a serious crisis has already begun. If you concur with this assumption, then you have two choices - build a preparation plan that does not kick in until the crisis is upon us, or build a preparation plan that assumes an extremely low level of participation. I would recommend the latter choice purely for your own peace of mind and the safety of those for whom you care.

There's nothing wrong with this. It's doing what you can reasonably do in a difficult situation. I am almost of the opinion that peak oilers might choose to contact wealthy individuals and see about forming intentional communities, still connected to the outside world but as self-sufficient as possible and capable of mostly taking up any slack that remains if cutoff due to breakdown of the social structure. Such communities might be no more than stable towns in a depression-like setting but they might be the seeds of a new culture that would arise from the ashes of total collapse. Would all such communities survive? Not likely but the more such communities exist, the higher the chance that the knowledge carried by at least a few will make it through any period of collapse and be available in the future.

One of the most precious things we have is knowledge, including our knowledge of what we did wrong. Bequeathing that to future generations may be the brightest gift we can give if we can find a way to send it forward through time safely.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I')t all comes down to food.

[bobcousins]

Number one on any list must be population control. Otherwise the rest is pointless.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', 'N')umber one on any list must be population control. Otherwise the rest is pointless.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'I') have decided that regardless of how gruesome the outcome, it is best for nature to do our population control for us. That is, until and unless we achieve some sort of incorruptible utopia (hah).

[Liamj]

"How would you control the population?"

'Population control' and '..control the population' don't sound the same thing at all. The latter is coercive, the former could be voluntary/cultural.

How to bring the former about?
1. Unprecedented global person to person engagement and education
2. Free iPod for every vasectomy
3. 'Final years' trade-in for weeks in Vegas/uni.education for ?/BIG sendoff
4. Ban pets, except for nonbreeders
5. Eliminate 'baby bonus' payouts & all tax concessions, no child support after 1 child
6. ?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Liamj', '"')How would you control the population?"

'Population control' and '..control the population' don't sound the same thing at all. The latter is coercive, the former could be voluntary/cultural.

How to bring the former about?
1. Unprecedented global person to person engagement and education
2. Free iPod for every vasectomy
3. 'Final years' trade-in for weeks in Vegas/uni.education for ?/BIG sendoff
4. Ban pets, except for nonbreeders
5. Eliminate 'baby bonus' payouts & all tax concessions, no child support after 1 child
6. ?

[Liamj]

Sorry, even my hyperoptimist can't see us keeping current lifestyle assumptions, and pets are discretionary. You may value them more than people you don't know, but don't expect all others to accept your choice.

Disallowing anything slightly coercive means relying on 6,500,000,000 miracles of the heart. Good luck.

[bobcousins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', 'N')umber one on any list must be population control. Otherwise the rest is pointless.