[some_guy282]

You'd be surprised at the # of people willing to debate arithmatic.

[dukey]

its weird
the price of petrol is dropping here
must be crisis over ?

and any news of europe turning off the tap to its strategic petroleum reserve ? I just feel like we are living on borrowed time.

[joewp]

No, the crisis isn't over. Gasoline and crude are coming down in price because it's between seasons. The US "driving season" is over and the heating season hasn't started yet. If you look at the crude oil chart, you'll see dips in the spring and fall and rises in the summer and winter.

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('some_guy282', 'Y')ou'd be surprised at the # of people willing to debate arithmatic.

[bbadwolf]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dukey', 'a')nd any news of europe turning off the tap to its strategic petroleum reserve ?

[Sys1]

bbadwolf : you right, things getting pretty bad in France. And i'm living in Paris suburbs... !
Violences in the night saturday-sunday increased, soemthing like 900 cars burned. Worse, riots are spreading in lot of cities of the whole country. Our government seems powerless. They seem to pray for violence to stop by itself.

If things get worse, perhabs they will need to call army, as police can't manage the mess.

[FireJack]

I suspect the french police/army will eventully be forced to become violent to stop the rioting and be blamed for excessive force, better than watching paris burn to the ground but I bet no one will mention that.
Never thought the riots could lead to higher gas prices, all that gas is helping keep the smoke and mirrors going too.

[sameu]

look at the bright side
hundreds of cars being destroyed, in a way quite efficient demand destruction

[FireJack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'l')ook at the bright side
hundreds of cars being destroyed, in a way quite efficient demand destruction

[nocar]

Regarding the burning cars in France, I was thinking, oh how happy the car-makers like Renault and Citroen will be! Now they have chance to sell new cars, and perhaps postpone their bankrupcy a while.

But someone must pick up the tab - I believe it is the insurance companies. Who else?

nocar

[Byron100]

If there is a bright side to all this rioting, is that all those burnt-out cars will have to be replaced, which will create *jobs* those rioters so desperately need. If they keep this up much longer (perhaps graduating to burning down whole blocks of buildings), there won't be an unemployment problem in France.

Kinda of a sucky way to solve the joblessness problem, though Now if only the French government would get some sense knocked into its head and create some jobs for all the unemployed youth....

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', 'I')f there is a bright side to all this rioting, is that all those burnt-out cars will have to be replaced, which will create *jobs* those rioters so desperately need. If they keep this up much longer (perhaps graduating to burning down whole blocks of buildings), there won't be an unemployment problem in France.

Kinda of a sucky way to solve the joblessness problem, though Now if only the French government would get some sense knocked into its head and create some jobs for all the unemployed youth....

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou'd be surprised at the # of people willing to debate arithmatic.

[Lokutus]

I just finished watching the one hour video with Dr Bartlett explaining how exponential growth operates and its consequences.

Recall his early example of bacteria placed in a bottle at 11:00 AM. Their population doubles every minute leading to the bottle being full by noon. So he asks "when was the bottle half-full?". Answer: at 11:59, not at 11:30.

He keeps echoing this example throughout the next hour.

I'm a poor mathematician so this may sound like a dumb question. A 100% growth rate is very high. Would his example of the bacteria been as dramatic if he had used say a 5% growth rate?

Did he cherry-pick an improbable growth rate to drive his point home that we only see the danger after it's too late?

Could someone shoot down Bartlett's argument with, "Hey nothing grows at 100%".

[MonteQuest]

In mathematics, a quantity that grows exponentially is one that grows at a rate proportional to its size. This means that for any exponentially growing quantity, the larger the quantity gets, the faster it grows.

Exponential Growth and The Rule of 70

Look a this from the Lily pond Parable



Same point Dr. Bartlett was making.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', 'I') just finished watching the one hour video with Dr Bartlett explaining how exponential growth operates and its consequences.

Recall his early example of bacteria placed in a bottle at 11:00 AM. Their population doubles every minute leading to the bottle being full by noon. So he asks "when was the bottle half-full?". Answer: at 11:59, not at 11:30.

He keeps echoing this example throughout the next hour.

I'm a poor mathematician so this may sound like a dumb question. A 100% growth rate is very high. Would his example of the bacteria been as dramatic if he had used say a 5% growth rate?

Did he cherry-pick an improbable growth rate to drive his point home that we only see the danger after it's too late?

Could someone shoot down Bartlett's argument with, "Hey nothing grows at 100%".

[Lokutus]

Thanks, gents.

It's been almost three decades since my last math course.

[GreyZone]

As he said, "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." Truer words were never spoken.

[MacG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'A') 5% per year growth rate means the population will be 2^5 or 32 times larger in 70 years

[PeakOiler]

Also please see the Powerpoint presentation given on this thread: http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic7226.html

or see Earthday

There is a slide titled "Exponential Growth" which gives some good examples.
(Powerpoint presentation courtesy of Dr. Jason Bradford.)