Cornholio, humans have the potential to be intelligent animals, but with little evidence of them exercising that capacity, why would you put much faith, or any faith, for that matter, in them suddenly deciding to behave intelligently?
The thing is, you started this thread to gripe about the doomers, but your arguments seem to leave a great deal to be desired. It's almost as if you're saying
"It won't be so bad because I believe it won't be."
It really seems you're operating from faith, not reason, not intelligence.
PeakOil is You
Doomers gotta DOOM
Re: The Problem With Doomers...
by cornholio » Sat 05 Nov 2005, 15:47:10
Really it is not my job to defend the status quo (there is need for change) or defeat the doomer model (though there are assumptions built into it that may or may not play out). We all get to look at the information, judge for ourselves what seems likely, make our plans and live with the consequences. Personally I think knowledge of PO will leave me better off than most (as I buy an efficient car, avoid a McMansion, distrust my retirement plan and keep an eye out for a better garden spot). But, fully embracing the darkest predictions of PO would be detrimental at this point... for financial and psychological reasons. If the worst pans out I will adjust.
Regarding my original post... The fact that this board has developed a consensus that certain things (nuclear, nanotechnology, biotech, electric vehicles) will not develop to help us, and that other things (fascist governments, starving masses, global warming) will develop and ruin us does not make it so (at least in any specific timeframe). There is a groupthink here that should be recognized... It is a groupthink among intelligent adults, but it is fringe and should be suspect for that reason alone.
As before, thanks for the replies. Please feel free to make your own plans and draw your own conclusions (I do).
Ludi- I was just being flippant. Please refer to MonteQuest for coherent predictions of the future.
Regarding my original post... The fact that this board has developed a consensus that certain things (nuclear, nanotechnology, biotech, electric vehicles) will not develop to help us, and that other things (fascist governments, starving masses, global warming) will develop and ruin us does not make it so (at least in any specific timeframe). There is a groupthink here that should be recognized... It is a groupthink among intelligent adults, but it is fringe and should be suspect for that reason alone.
As before, thanks for the replies. Please feel free to make your own plans and draw your own conclusions (I do).
Ludi- I was just being flippant. Please refer to MonteQuest for coherent predictions of the future.
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...
by Mesuge » Sat 05 Nov 2005, 15:49:24
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnLudi', '.'). Trade will continue as some people will still want to exchange their resources (material, products, labor), giving the national currency some value...
That's very true but if the $ collapse is the way of the future America will most likely turn into cashcrop economy. Don't forget the foreigners own already significant part of the giant US debt.. This prospect is absolutely no go for the elite so WWIII as way of survival for them is a likely output..
DOOMerotron: at all-time high [8.3] out of 10..
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Mesuge - Heavy Crude
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...
by MonteQuest » Sat 05 Nov 2005, 15:49:56
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cornholio', 'Q')uestions:
1) When is peak? (2005, 2013, 2020)... it makes a difference to me, if not for humanity.
1) When is peak? (2005, 2013, 2020)... it makes a difference to me, if not for humanity.
When cheap energy is no longer available.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2')) What happens when the public first faces scarcity and recognizes it for what it is? (embrace efficiency with public transport/nuclear, or resource war)
The price of energy will skyrocket. Yes, resource wars to try and maintain the status quo. Iraq is the forerunner and base establishment.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '3')) How long will the peak last (bumpy ceiling for years) and how steep will the decline be?
Currently, unknowable.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '4')) How high can oil prices rise before demand destruction (elsewhere : ) brings price down... Is 5$ gas sustainable now... Is 7$ gas sustainable now? Will it jump to 15$/gallon?
Currently, with 2 billion people just now getting their first car and refrigerator, the sky is the limit.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '5')) As prices increase how much can decreased demand (through conservation, carpooling, efficienct choices of autos, and skipped travel) decrease oil consumption and therefore prices.
Efficiency will cause an increase in demand; Jevon's Paradox. Conservation will cause massive unemployment. Not solutions.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '6')) In the face of increasing poverty/joblessness will the public a)riot b) adjust and keep working c) a little of both
Scarcity breeds poverty, poverty breeds conflict.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '7')) In the face of massive poverty/joblessness will the government a)fall back to it's well stocked bunkers guarded by blackwater security agents and let 50% starve b) provide basic food and supplies through seizure if necessary
which makes me feel more certain there is some sort of bias here... Meaning if I'm the optimist in the room everybody else should generally be put on suicide precautions and prozac. (Just my 2 cents, you get what you pay for)
)
(hahaha I would have replied along those lines ehehehe)