[nero]

Cornholio, very good post.

I think the key point you mention is the one MonteQuest zeroed in on. It's a question of time. How fast is this going to happen? MonteQuest and Omar seem to have a lot of faith in the accuracy of their crystal balls, and power to them they might be right!

However, I don't happen to share their faith in "crystal ball technology" so the problem I have with doomers is the same problem I have with optimists. I have no faith in the confidence intervals they put on their forecasts.

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', 'H')m, my biggest problem to buy PO hardlanding 100% is that it seems to be a bit odd to witness the largest spectacle in the history of the mankind! Millions years of our species and I'll have the ticket to see and play in this prime time show..?! This is either matrix or very lucky (in perverse sense) moment to be here this time around..

[cornholio]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '[')img]http://websitedesignsolutions.net/images/starpeak.png[/img]

[0mar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'O')mar,

I was quite impressed with your well-thought through and eloquent critique.

This quote is a jewel about the scalability dilemma:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omar', 'R')ight now, we are essentially telling a pre-mature baby to go and construct the Empire State Building

[aldente]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', 'H')m, my biggest problem to buy PO hardlanding 100% is that it seems to be a bit odd to witness the largest spectacle in the history of the mankind! Millions years of our species and I'll have the ticket to see and play in this prime time show..?! This is either matrix or very lucky (in perverse sense) moment to be here this time around..

[DefiledEngine]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')I came to the same conclusion at some point in the past. It seems too ridiculous a coincidence that we all are actually here right now witnessing the point of no return, referred to as Peak Oil. Too precise seems the timing on a historic scale and to unreal that we even have gotten wind of the magnitude of the consequences bound to unfold slightly beforhand.

[Encode]

I apologize in advance if I'm not entirely clear, it's late and I'm still at work wrapping a project on Friday night

I enjoyed hopping back and forth over the fence and seeing both sides of this debate as good points were brought out by both sides. As Cornholio said, it's certainly a rollercoaster of emotions as you go between wanting to give up and then rallying yourself with optimism.

Regardless of where we're at on the Peak curve maybe there's a way to see what's coming, good or bad, and that might be by watching the actions of the Oil Companies themselves. If anyone knows when Peak Oil is going to happen it should be them. But like many have said, probably our last clue that we're doomed is when the prices have continued to ratchet up, and up, and up, and never come back down.

But we have to watch for some clues, so just what is it that we watch for? I ask that because it's a safe bet that while they prepare to drain consumers and industry of their last dollars, the Oil Companies won't sit on their hands and say, "well the holes have gone dry and we've got all of their money, so it's time to close up shop and go home.":!: They won't give up that easy. Especially if they think there's any possibility of transitioning the consumers or industry into another form of energy and keeping their profit machines in operation. Now as Omar and Thuja said, even if they further developed some known technology or even came up with something new, it takes time and scale to ramp up and change over and they could probably only replace a portion of what we had. But wouldn't that be something to watch for? To see if the Oil Companies start to pour dollars into research & development of new technologies. To see if they finally start to delve into existing technologies. And maybe see if they start to buy up companies involved in other forms of energy.

Now the downside to all of this and why watching the Oil Companies might not help is the same problem the public currently faces with trickle down technology. Sure we have satellite phones, carbon fiber, gps, rfid chips and Google Earth. But my friends if we have that, you can only imagine what the government and the industry elite currently have. And what they might be developing:!: So they could potentially keep the next technology hidden until it's finally time to bring it forth.

They're sitting on billions of dollars in profits so if anyone has the time and "energy" to throw a few hundred million at the next money machine, it's certainly going to be the Oil Companies. They hate losses and probably pass on oil wells that we would call good, only because they don't meet a minimum level of profit for them. So they're motivated by profit to move onto whatever is next.

Lastly, watching the media is probably the worst way to figure out what the Oil Companies are up to. So please toss out your comments on what we should be watching for.

And thanks again for all comments from optomists, pessimists and "concerned citizens" alike.

Encode
San Diego, CA


PEOPLE SHOULDN'T BE AFRAID OF THEIR GOVERNMENTS. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD BE AFRAID OF THEIR PEOPLE.

[aldente]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DefiledEngine', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The statistical likelihood that you would exist in a time where humanity is at it's highest population is surely greater than if you were to exist when humanity is at it's infancy, a mere fraction of what it will become.

[DefiledEngine]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')That statement is absolutely accurate and for sure takes away the weight that is commonly put in our minds when for example "voting". The sheer mass, according to this principle decides, nothing else.

Are there principles that could outrule these values? Do any of you posters play chess? You must understand what I try to refer to here...

[aldente]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Albente', '
')Your obstacle in understanding this point obviously has to do with the element of time. November 5th, 1940 was not some moment in the past but is happening right now. The events recorded in history books related to that date are certainly of the past but not the actual moments experienced right then and there, just as you experience November 5th 2005 as the "now". It is irrelevant "who" experienced them, fact is that they occured and hence the occur NOW!

And no - I am not refering to any war related issues but randomly chose the date. What about November 5th 1970? Does that help?

There is no timeline!

[Mesuge]

So you want some more post PO collapse clues? I say follow the smoke..
Focus on the avantgarde of the countries already in decline of oil production:

- Mexico - there's a state of panic both in industry and goverment as they are going through a very steep decline of production but the remaining spare capacity on the world market (OPEC) hides this away so still not a CNN headline..

- Indonesia/Nigeria - several fold increase in price of oil in these production countries. Basically the oil industry MNCs operating there fucked the demand of the local people and dumped the oil on the world markets instead => riots/local insurgency in oil region, declining quality of life, Niger delta is in state of environmental holocaust already..

- UK - chairman of the board of industrialists (major capitalists lobby) speaks about 3day working weak and widespread shutdowns if they enter more than 12day period of sub 0C temperatures this winter. Last ten years of warm winter hided the issue. They produce 1/2 of their electricity from just-in-time system of pipelines from declining Norh Sea gas/oilfields..
UK government is giving a renewed thought to cold war era emergency laws to get prepared for rationing and riots this winter and on..

- Norway (outlier) - thanks to low pop and smart investment (unlike UK) they are sitting on a pretty giant pile of cash from their part of the North Sea oilfields revenues. Now they are quietly moving these assests away from US bond/stock market to some harbor of better liquidity..
(if they ever found one)

..
.
------------------
Breaking News> Alegedly, the former Northrop Corp. inventor of B2 stealth technology sold secret plans to agents from 8countries incl. China, massive arrests by FBI on the way.. There were already some passive electromagnetic detectors capable of demask them but banned under the NATO agreement, China was trying to get them.. US blocked the sale because of the Taiwain issue..

I never believed in more open US<>China standoff but that was wrong. China needs lebensraum and oil that's not going to be pretty..

[aldente]

Peak Oil - fully understood - blows your brain away!

[Mesuge]

I think there has never been a better time recently to go on vacation to Safari.. Take a camera! I bet that all the remaining wildlife fauna will be butchered by the impoverished population in a decade after the steep decline cca 2011-2020.. You can hang on these images on the wall of your new cave mansion in the era of great rellocation by 2033..

[aldente]

Mesuge, that was a weak post. I've been in Africa quite a few times, however it was the West, hence no Safari kind of thing.
Where are you located anyway?
Did you get any understanding out of my last post or does it still seem "unreadable"? To deal with time coordinates is about the most advanced element ever. I have to go to bed now...and yes I STINK, why are all Americans so opposed to body odor?

{image deleted due to pageview distortion by MQ}

[Heineken]

Cornholio, in your analysis of "the problem" with doomers, you uttered . . .

Not one word about fresh water.

Not one word about the oceans.

Not one word about deforestation.

Not one word about desertification.

Not one word about food.

Not one word about global warming.

Not one word about epidemics.

Not one word about pollution.

Not one word about population.

Not one word about resource wars.

Many of these matters are intimately connected with energy use and availability.

So, with respect, I'd say you have a bit of a problem yourself.

[RonMN]

I think what makes me a doomer is simply following an idea all the way to its logical conclusion. Let's take a depression for instance...

I hear the words "economic depression" tossed around like it's no big deal. I hear/read "we've been thru it before and we'll live thru it again"...Well, let's look at that one point.

1st we have never been thru an economic depression while the US Gov't was 9 trillion dollars in debt. This alone will be catastrophic because the US would not be able to make the interest payments on that debt in a depression...at that point they have only 2 options:
A - Default
B - Print the money (causing hyperinflation/dollar crash).
I don't believe there are ANY alternatives (please point one out if you know of one).

Next point is during the 1930's depression, 30% + of the US population lived on family farms (it gave LOTS of people a pace to go back to)...today, less than 2% live on family farms and you better bet your arse that those farms will be protected by smith & wesson!

My point is, i just don't see the "non-doomers/soft landers" (what ever you want to call them) following most points all the way to their logical conclusion...they seem to stop at a point & dismiss the rest (when IMHO the rest is not dismissable).

My 0.02

[JohnLudi]

The American economy...and now much of the global economy, is predicated on the notion of constant expansion...it is not a maintenance economy, its health...and some would argue its very existence, is based upon a certain dependable level of expansion. If anything causes that expansion to cease (such as chronic energy shortages) the economy as we know it could go away very quickly. Given the Byzantine level of complexity and interdependency (and the mostly negative wildcard of human nature) in our current systems of doing practically everything, this spells Hard Landing at the very least.

Just my two cents on this post...hope I'm wrong...we'll find out sooner or later...

[Ludi]

Cornholio, I missed your reply to my question:

In your scenario, what will the majority of people do for a living? How will they pay for food and shelter?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', ' ')My point is, i just don't see the "non-doomers/soft landers" (what ever you want to call them) following most points all the way to their logical conclusion...they seem to stop at a point & dismiss the rest (when IMHO the rest is not dismissable).

[cornholio]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'C')ornholio, I missed your reply to my question:

In your scenario, what will the majority of people do for a living? How will they pay for food and shelter?