[Licho]

Why are so many Americans concerned with looters, angry mobs etc.. why do Americans want to have guns at homes?

I don't see similar attitude from others..
Is this caused by different style of living?
Europeans living mostly in cities, while Americans are more spread and more isolated from others?

Some escape to farm with gun sounds so irrational for most Europeans.. Most further away you can get from road or other house is probably 5km And you wont be able to survive next winter without help of civilization. And hunting? Erm.. there are thousands of hunters, and if just one year limitations were lifted, they would kill all animals in forests .. Even now, if you want to go to forest you will meet other people almost always (walking, searching mushrooms for fun etc..), there is no true wilderness..

I do realize that I need other people to survive, I need civilization, and civilization will survive PO here. Cvilization was working without oil in same area previously, and it was working nice. Transition will take years of slow oil decline, there will not be "crash" point when masses of people decide to leave cities. We could well be months over peak already.. If people are forced to run away and defend themselfs, then it means total collapse of civilization. That means that you die very soon anyway. You cannot do everything you need for life alone. Even cavemen were social, (and dying at 30-35 anyway) , their life-style is not possible on overcrowded Earth with devastated life enviroment. So this is of my least concern. If civilization ever collapses to the MadMaxx state many Americans seem to be expecting, we are all doomed anyway.

[MarkB]

They have an aggressive culture and just about everything I have read on a "hard landing" with bandit cultures and the like is penned by Americans. Not that I'm saying it won't happen in the US. I suspect it will without question.

So I'm glad I'm not there. I prefer to live in a saner nation where cooperation will happen. Australians do not kill each other on mass, as evidenced in US history i.e. their civil war and the current day of endless deaths by guns. Nor have Australian govts set about to kill Australian citizens to get leverage, aka Northwoods Documents.

That's not to say there's no sociopaths downunder. But the removal of vast sums of guns will mean a safer transition. The volunteer culture is also high in Australia, i.e. be it help with bushfires to floods. I'm confident of a sound transition as mateship and fair go is real in my country. I doubt, for example, that there will be LA like riots in Sydney/Melbourne. Where as such will happen in the US (and has in the past). Put simply, the racism and class anger in that country is clearly evident with everyman and his dog armed with guns, rather than team work.

I have to say that the Mad Max story is always an amusement, since it was set in Australia, but it was really taken on board by the American audience. Simply because the violence and scenario within the story resides more closely to the American psyche and culture than the fictional setting of outback NSW.

[jato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')ransition will take years of slow oil decline, there will not be "crash" point when masses of people decide to leave cities.

[Licho]

Well Jato, then explain me machanism of "sudden crash"? Mechanism of slow decline is already explained by Campbell and others, and "sudden crash" seem to be just wishfull thinking of doomlovers.. We are already post peak, so when this "crash" happens and how??

(Even if we are not post peak yet, situation with oil is very similar to actual peak)

[dmtu]

We just want to be ready when the tzars need killing.

In reality I think the disproportionate number of Americans that visit the site in relation to Europeans coupled with the fact that there are almost 700 members plus guests has you picking out a few and tagging us all.
Isn't it a proven that when an economy falters crime increases? In the event of a hard crash I think the population density http://www.census.gov/population/census ... den_ma.txt will definitely cause some problems in certain areas. 1000 people per square mile, all of them energy starved? You tell me.

I'd rather be safe than sorry and, I have that option here.

[Licho]

People also seem to mysteriously forget about the fact, that at peak, there is still left more oil in the ground than we already extracted.. How can you have anything sudden besides perhaps strock market contraction?

[Barbara]

No, Licho, No!
No again with those guns!
Why? Why?

[jato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell Jato, then explain me machanism of "sudden crash"? Mechanism of slow decline is already explained by Campbell and others, and "sudden crash" seem to be just wishfull thinking of doomlovers..

[Licho]

Most dieoff articles don't deal with sudden crash. It's just theoretically based long-term prediction about world.
If such economic collapse (how can total collapse happen today? There are many regulations in place) happens, then situation will stabilize soon. And if not, it can be changed to "war' economy with food rationing etc.. anyway, why should farmers stop to grow food if some monetary crisis happens? Food is essential to life and easy to sell commodity.. why would farmers stop producing it?

[Licho]

Decline will be slower than 70-80 oil crisis, and what terrible things did happen during that crisis in USA? Did wallstreet collapsed? Did you have roaming bands of looters around country?
Yeah, it's not fun, living in such conditions for decades, but it's not end of world. Push for alternatives will eventually keep with decline and decrease the prices, just check graphs how much oil consumption declined after crisis.

[dmtu]

Just to keep you riled.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040928/D85CSRIG0.html

[jato]

I guess we need to define "sudden crash". I use the term loosely. Drastic economic & lifestyle changes over a short period of time (weeks, months, year, but not decades). I would preferto drop "sudden" and just use the term "crash".

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd if not, it can be changed to "war' economy with food rationing etc.. anyway, why should farmers stop to grow food if some monetary crisis happens? Food is essential to life and easy to sell commodity.. why would farmers stop producing it?

[Licho]

It's not really that much different from oil crisis. Total ammount of oil availiable to USA decreased and same will happen after PO. But it will be just 3% annually (more or less).

Yes, food is hard to produce without fuel, but economic forces or govermental measures will ensure supply to food production and distibution. It's likely to be first or second priority. What industry is more important for society than agriculture?
Even if agriculture has to rely on oil exclusively, production will still be high enough to supply current level agriculture till next century (according Campbell's predictions).

During war in Europe, there were much more severe oil supply disruption, and agriculture was still working. During that time, synthetic fuels were produced and used.
Same will likely happen after peok oil. Some diesel will be replaced by biodiesel (not ethanol produced, this has low eroi), other will be synthetized from coal, completely new chemical compounds can be created to efficiently store energy supplied by nuclear, coal and renewable sources.

[smiley]

On the other hand you should not forget the New York black out and the LA riots. The USA has the potential to turn very violent in case of a crisis. I don't think that is something cultural, that Americans are more violent than we are.

One of the things that always surprised me about the US is that it is the land of contrasts. You have the richest people in the world and some of the poorest. I have always viewed New york as the epicenter of that difference with Manhattan and the Bronx and Queens only a few blocks apart. The difference couldn't be much larger.

I think situation has created a lot of tension. As soon as the rich show some kind of vulnerability the poor will come in and try to take what they think they deserve. I believe that was the main drive behind the lootings during the blackout. Otherwise I can't think of a reason why a city would go beserk the moments the lights fail.

I think another great problem could be that the US is governed by the ultrarich. Both Kerry and Bush are both billionaires. I think that a lot of poor people will have problems respecting their authority of such persons.

I've already heard a lot of people saying that the current government is only looking at the interests of the happy few and not of the general population. That idea can become very dangerous when the economy really falters. When people get the idea that they are being used they do crazy things.

In Europe I think we're pretty well protected against such violence since the contrasts between rich and poor are not so apparent here. They are growing but it is still a relatively small difference.

I don't know about our new prime minister, but the last one had a $300.000 house and drove his bicycle to work. His wife made his lunchbox for his afternoon break. And that's the most important man in the country.

[jato]

Yeah, your future may be right. If we switch to Communism!

It isn't going to happen your way. I have faith in that. :D

[Barbara]

smiley,
where are you from? The Nederlands? Scandinavia? What civilized countries!

Licho,
as you maybe know, I agrre with comparation between peak oil-Europe wwII. But keep in mind that we had a smaller population and agricolture didn't rely so heavily on oil those times. And also, our govts (like them or not) knew how to keep the countries in control.

[Licho]

Yes, Europe is much less divided in terms of rich and poor.. It's much less class society.
I love this in my country, even though it can be result of years of communism..
You can go to some dirty local pub and meet and talk with president of country who happens to be there too, or NHL hockey start that makes billions. Such people don't use bodyguards in their "free" time here. There are no distictive rich areas. President was living in normal flat in standard house along with 30 other families, until he got elected, and prime minister still lives in such flat He is former train driver and I often make more money than him, and his wife is elementary school teacher I think..
I'm regurally meeting one rich movie and TV star in tram which she uses to go shopping to same shop as I do, because she lives not far from me. Rich people here simply behave in similar way as all others. And very poor people are hard to find, because country always gives you minimal money for decent living.

[TheSupplyGuy]

For those of you who don't know, it is true that a large number of middle and lower class Americnas(across the board, not just the youth) are getting dissastisfied with the fact that all of our government officials are ultra rich, and it seems most of them simply use their government jobs to become even more wealthy.

[jato]

Licho,

How much experience do you have with the USA?

Have you lived here?

Have you visited? How long?


I think your last post explains why you don't understand the USA. You live in a completely different world (so to speak).

[rerere]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Licho', 'W')hy are so many Americans concerned with looters, angry mobs etc.. why do Americans want to have guns at homes?

I don't see similar attitude from others..
Is this caused by different style of living?