[MacG]

We are all Pollyanna's compared to this guy:

http://www.goldismoney.info/forums/show ... hp?t=22646

[RealJoe]

John Kaminski is a very powerful writer of emotional basis arguments. His stances on the recent Afghan and Iraq wars and the victims of post-colonial oppression are commendable and it is good that he is able to voice his criticism of injust, corrupt and immoral political and social policies.

However, he is known to play fast and loose with the facts, so much so that many of his essays are questionable simply because of the exaggerations and distortions of the hard facts. The place where you can most likely find his work is www.rense.com, a UFO conspiracy web portal.

I wish he would stick to the truths of these complex political situations and not go off into polemics and speculation so much. Despite his moral points, my advice is to disregard his writing. It is like he is a disinformation agent out to create disrespect and skepticism for the anti-war movement.

[turmoil]

any negative criticism of a hypothetical situation is worthless. i loved it. my favorite part:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow will I find out about it?

Well, there are several ways you could find out about it. If you lived in an urban area like New York or Beijing or Cairo or Teheran, you'd probably find out about it when you saw a flash of light brighter than anything you've ever imagined, but it would last for only a millisecond and then you'd see nothing ever again. If, like most people, you lived in towns moderately close to these cities, you'd probably feel these humongous thumps and wonder why your house was disintegrating all around you. If you lived way out in the sticks you'd start to see these radiant atmospheric flashes, feel relatively gentle ground tremors, and then in a few hours you'd see a smoky blackness creeping toward you from the direction of the cities that would grow blacker and blacker as the hours passed. Depending on each person's individual perceptual skills, it would be a matter of minutes or hours before you realized you would never see the sun again, because you will never survive the abject cold that would be produced by the sun being blotted out for probably from five to 15 years, except, as I said before, in extremely lucky places in the way Southern Hemisphere. Didn't you ever wonder why all those Israelis are buying up huge chunks of real estate in Patagonia?

You mean I won't see something on television and be able to briefly feel a pang of remorse about someone else being killed far away, and then be able to put it out of my mind so I could watch Monday Night Football with my usual intense focus?

[MicroHydro]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')ohn Kaminski is a writer who lives on the Gulf Coast of Florida

[cornholio]

The problem with Doomers...

1) They ignore timeframe... Yes, peak oil may be now or soon, but that just means a gradual decline in oil production. Assuming a bell-shaped curve in 30 years oil will be produced at a rate similar to that of 1975. There will be time and energy to power industry during the transition years...

2) Accepting that PO will cause an economic downturn, they equate recession/depression as an end of economic activity. PO may very well cause the stock market to tank, but people will work, industry will "do things" and resources will be used. Economic upheaval will redirect resources to essential (food, shelter, transportation, transport) and energy efficient (affordable) activities.

3) They lump the peaking of oil, gas, coal and nuclear into one immediate innevitable catastrophe. Coal will not peak anytime soon (and can be used to produce diesel), and nuclear (uranium and thorium) can provide electricity for hundreds of years.

4) They underestimate ability to compensate for increasing prices and shortage by decreasing use... Turning down thermostats to 65, buying only cars that get 50mpg (Honda Fit), decreasing air travel, carpooling... This will offset some of the declining availability, and these things will all happen naturally when energy prices increase but not a moment sooner (unfortunately). When cost increases energy will be directed to its most valuable uses as determined by what people will buy (food, energy for heat, shelter) and sustainable energy sources.

5) They (correctly) point out that there will be no single replacement as plentiful and cheap as oil... but imply that that means that a patchwork of more expensive, less energy dense solutions coupled with conservation (driven by economic necessity) is not worth the trouble and can not be successful.

6) They discount technology's potential impact on energy availability and storage... Beyond nuclear (uranium and thorium breeder technology) which is deployable now, and is for comming generations essentially sustainable) there are important steps being made in nanotechnology to improve batteries (making electric vehicles viable or hybrids more efficient), reduce the energy cost of creating hydrogen, and improving the efficiency of solar (for production of electricity or hydrogen). Genetic engineering may someday be able to incorporate nitrogen fixation into common crop plants (beyond legumes) to reduce need for fertilizers. Both nanotechnology are biotech have the potential to amplify the efficiency of industry and farming in the near future while reducing energy use.

7) They too easily accept the notion that the US economy/industry is without value and that the US dollar will fall to zero value easily... In fact the US population (highly educated), natural resources, infrastructure (highly efficient) and industry (highly mechanized) will continue to be valuable and necessary to the world economy. And if/when the US economy suffers a recession/depression so will the economies of asia and europe... To the extent that labor remains cheaper in other countries manufacturing jobs will remain overseas. To the extent that the us worker is willing to work for less industrial jobs will return to the US. To the extent that the dollar falls in value our nation can return to exporting products...

They use arguements based on efficiency and EROI to discount viable projects... Coal (now abundant) can and will be converted to diesel (as it was in WWII) if needed to supply the liquid fuels needed to keep farm equipment and heavy transport moving (EROI 5:1). It might have been more efficient to use the coal to produce electricity (EROI 20:1), but if liquid fuel shortage is needed to prevent starvation and keep trucks on the road then that is how coal will be used. Decades from now, as liquid fuels become more scarce/valuable/necessary using more exotic sources of electric energy (nuclear) to produce liquid fuel (cooking shale/tarsands/releasing hydrogen from water) may become justified if that liquid fuel remains necessary for food production and heavy transportation. A negative EROI just means you have chosen to spend more energy of an abundant type to get less energy stored in a more valuable fuel type... As long as the net EROI for the entire chain is positive the negative EROI fuel can be produced if needed.

Just a few thoughts I wanted to get off my chest... I'm a pessimist by nature, but after a month or two of grappling with the concept of PO Ive sided with the hard landers (rather than doomers) for my lifespan. I accept the probability of a recession/depression in our near future, and see some chaos in our future as the need to reorganize (demand destruction) under a more efficient model becomes obvious. Still, doomers as a group accept a lot of assumptions that just don't seem inevitable. Population growth and economic growth as we know it will have to be curtailed for environmental reasons... but Peak Oil induced zombie and die offs in the comming 2-3 decades seem unlikely.

[jato]

Yes, in 2030 the world will still be pumping 47 million barrels per day. The USA will still be using 20 mbd which will leave the rest of the world (a more populated and industrialized world compared to 1975) with 27 mbd.

WE will be just fine!

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cornholio', 'T')he problem with Doomers...

[0mar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cornholio', 'T')he problem with Doomers...

1) They ignore timeframe... Yes, peak oil may be now or soon, but that just means a gradual decline in oil production. Assuming a bell-shaped curve 30 years oil will be produced at a rate similar to 1975. There will be time and energy to power industry during the transition years...

[Ludi]

Cornholio, in your scenario, what do you see the majority of people doing for a living? What will be their employment/way of paying for food and shelter?

[Hawkcreek]

--

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cornholio', 'T')he problem with Doomers...

[Mesuge]

Hm, my biggest problem to buy PO hardlanding 100% is that it seems to be a bit odd to witness the largest spectacle in the history of the mankind! Millions years of our species and I'll have the ticket to see and play in this prime time show..?! This is either matrix or very lucky (in perverse sense) moment to be here this time around..

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'C')ornholio, in your scenario, what do you see the majority of people doing for a living? What will be their employment/way of paying for food and shelter?

[sol]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ornholio, in your scenario, what do you see the majority of people doing for a living? What will be their employment/way of paying for food and shelter?

[Eli]

Carhole I for one think you are right on for the most part.

But Aaron is right as well, if the wheels come off no one will ever know if it was because PO.

If things do get tight and supplys and resources do run low mankind will turn to the one thing they know how to do very well which is kill one another but no one will ever call it PO.

[MonteQuest]

Omar,

I was quite impressed with your well-thought through and eloquent critique.

This quote is a jewel about the scalability dilemma:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omar', 'R')ight now, we are essentially telling a pre-mature baby to go and construct the Empire State Building

[Aaron]

[Seadragon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', 'H')m, my biggest problem to buy PO hardlanding 100% is that it seems to be a bit odd to witness the largest spectacle in the history of the mankind! Millions years of our species and I'll have the ticket to see and play in this prime time show..?! This is either matrix or very lucky (in perverse sense) moment to be here this time around..

[LadyRuby]

Cornholio, I think there's a lot to what you're saying. My thinking on PO is more like yours than the hardcore doomers. Thanks for taking the time to put this all down for discussion.