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Age 26 or older? What were you thinking?

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Re: Age 26 or older? What were you thinking?

Postby rogerhb » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 03:12:47

I was born in '65, I remember the oil shocks of the '70s, the power cuts, North Sea coming on line and the miners strike of the 80s. I always believed the world was over populated and it was in the 90s I heard that oil would run out in '2030'. It was a couple of years ago I then found out about peak theory.
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Re: Age 26 or older? What were you thinking?

Postby Evltre » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 03:38:29

I'm 30 years old and had never, ever contemplated energy before last year. I didn't often go to school, left school young and started full time work at 15 (not because I found it difficult - I was bored and often in trouble!).

From there I worked really, really hard, nose to the grindstone, not often stopping to poke my head up for air, except to catch a movie, a party or two or to shop. I know that sounds terrible - I look back and cringe!

It wasn't until I had my son that I really stopped to take a breath and think about the world, and it's future (in the context of what would it be like for him). And now here I am.....
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Re: Age 26 or older? What were you thinking?

Postby sol » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 03:47:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t wasn't until I had my son that I really stopped to take a breath and think about the world, and it's future (in the context of what would it be like for him). And now here I am.....


ditto 8O
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Re: Age 26 or older? What were you thinking?

Postby fluffy » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 04:08:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', '
')So, people aged over 26 who didn't learn about the concept of peak oil until this century, please share with me what you were thinking back then. I promise not to be rude to anyone.


As an interesting point, as a geology undergraduate at Cambridge in the 1990s, the idea of peak oil was never mentioned. It was possible to infer that oil was getting harder to find - my tutor had made his money in Iran in the 1960s, when you could find multi-billion barrel fields from a bit of surface mapping; we were looking at much smaller fields found with full wave equation seismic migration. But the subject was never quantified. So I would guess that even those who work in the field would have to find out about the subject independantly.

I work in telecomms now. It's one oil substitute.. Telecommuting is one way of reducing oil demand that does not require major investment; it's actually cheaper than commuting now; it's just a culture thing.

But on a wider scale; the idea of modern society is that in many fields you have to trust the experts in charge to tell the truth. You cannot go around finding everything out from first principals for yourself, because you have a finite lifespan.

The problem with the above has been one of free market fundamentalism; the idea that experts, usually but not always in the employ of the government, can decide the best direction for certan vital industries (Food, Energy, Land management, Transport, Water) was discarded and replaced with the idea that 'The market knows best'.

Trade and markets can, of course, do some great things, introducing new technologies, new consumer products, making things cheaper and more widely available, etc - capitalism in itself should not be dismissed outright. But free market systems by definition strongly discount the future, and this can and does cause serious problems with fundamental industries such as those above.

Which means that a lot of people just asume that 'Someone will do Something', without realising that this 'someone' is no longer there. Should things get to the stage of physical rationing and shortages, I strongly suspect that the idea of leaving it to the market will vanish like the morning dew. We shall see.
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Re: Age 26 or older? What were you thinking?

Postby JohnLudi » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 07:36:48

I am another one who read The Limits to Growth back in the 80's...amongst other things. For my part, I have alway lived a Voluntary Simplicity-oriented lifestyle based upon the notion that you can't have unlimited growth in a finite system...you can make a limited amount of technological adjustments to utilize resources more effectively, but that's about all. A good deal of my musical/recording career has been dedicated to trying to get that very message across...to little or no avail.

The actual phrase Peak Oil was something I only heard about 3 or 4 years ago, but it came as no surprise whatsoever. Nor did any of the possible implications.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut society collectively chose denial and passivity, rather than taking timely steps to mitigate the inevitable transition.


Well sure...that's human nature. We are a creature with a myriad "design flaws"...denial and the ability to be complacent up to crisis point is part and parcel of who we are.

Kinda sucks, doesn't it?
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Re: Age 26 or older? What were you thinking?

Postby bobcousins » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 07:48:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', 'O')k, so you were another person who had a latent awareness of peak oil. The knowledge was stored on the brain's long term memory but not accessed for a long time, until it became personal and immediate. So, this does make me think that almost everyone has known about peak oil, at least since the 1960s. But society collectively chose denial and passivity, rather than taking timely steps to mitigate the inevitable transition. There was no grand conspiracy to hide the truth. We choose our own doom.


I don't agree with that. I think you are projecting your own viewpoint. Is it too hard to believe that poeple are simply ignorant of such topics? Just because you know about it and think it is important, why should that mean that other people "must know about it"? It is you that appear to have had an exceptional background and awareness, please do not make that assumption of everyone else.

In fact I throw the question back at you. Did you just assume that everyone has the same background, education, and critical thinking that you have? Anyone who has studied history knows that the general populace want circuses and bread - provided they are entertained, they don't care about big issues. The Middle Class presume they are different, but they are not really. They drink wine instead of beer, and play golf instead of pool.

So I what want to know - what were you thinking, to be so naive and misguided about what everyone else thinks? You claim to have the ability to know how to reason - it seems to have let you down in this case. Perhaps you are less smart than you think?
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Re: Age 26 or older? What were you thinking?

Postby katkinkate » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 07:54:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', '.').... Was it like food comes from the grocery store, electricity from the wall socket, and gasoline from the service station? You never thought beyond that? .....


Most people don't. They are too busy dealing with day to day life and its assorted problems to be getting all thoughtful about the ultimate destination of the western lifestyle. You assume what you need will be available, because it always has and if at some time it isn't then someone will find an alternative or they will just work their way around it. It's only people with time on their hands and a more critical way of thinking who are interested in weighing consequences.

Its just being human. We're a short-sighted species.
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Re: Age 26 or older? What were you thinking?

Postby Paul64 » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 08:25:36

I am 41. What was I thinking? Honestly, of course having some science background I knew that one day fossil fuels would 'run out', but I always thought of it as some time 'way out there' and that by that time renewables would be 'ready' to replace what was missing. And this from someone with a BS in geology/chemistry! For me it was never denial; it was simply a case of never having investigating this particular issue thoroughly, including the simple details like energy density of fossil vs. alternatives, despite being a very inquisitive person.

I had been growingly aware over the last few years simply by looking around me with open eyes that the world is clearly going downhill - youth (with exceptions) becoming more and more imbecilic, roads getting more and more congested, leaf blowers multiplying, technology continuing to advance while life gets more complicated, not simpler. I travelled to Peru and found people with very little, who clearly led happier and more balanced lives and enjoyed much greater community than most first world northern-hemispherers.

I also recognized from my own experiences and others that major parts of our system are by and large a sham and more harmful than helpful to peoples well-being on balance - health care (drugs, surgery and vaccinations), food processing (turning harmful crap not designed for humans into tasty morsels), mutual funds (fees, managed funds that underperform the market). In that context, finally discovering PO this summer (I selected 2005 in the poll), there was no shock - just a little new awareness.
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Re: Age 26 or older? What were you thinking?

Postby kevincarter » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 10:04:32

:shock:
Last edited by kevincarter on Wed 03 Jun 2009, 13:51:25, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Age 26 or older? What were you thinking?

Postby 1966 » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 10:11:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fluffy', 'B')ut free market systems by definition strongly discount the future

this is a stunning observation.
i had never thought about this problem in such crystal clear terms before.
"free market" (this is a very misleading term) economics and finance are all about trashing (discounting) the future.

can anyone refute this?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fluffy', 'S')hould things get to the stage of physical rationing and shortages, I strongly suspect that the idea of leaving it to the market will vanish like the morning dew. We shall see.

i agree totally.
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Re: Age 26 or older? What were you thinking?

Postby swingbolder » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 10:11:37

I am 40, and I pretty much grew up with the notion that the future was going to be fucked, so I pretty much stopped paying attention to the gory details. I was around eight during the oil crisis of '73, the population explosion was forever in the news, and in the fourth grade I remember freaking out when it was revealed that the ozone layer was thinning.

Also, the 70s were the time when all those bleak armageddon movies came out about how awful things were going to be in the future due to pollution, overpopulation, mutated viruses etc. Movies like Soylent Green.

So, you just live your life.
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Re: Age 26 or older? What were you thinking?

Postby cornholio » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 10:48:53

I am 37 and remember the conservation push of the 70's. When that urgency evaporated it seemed that the "shortage" had been overstated (actually we just accepted dependance on Middle East oil) and that the time of oil production decline would be far off in the future... I was in college/ med school/ residency / working like a fiend for the next couple of decades, and CNN and the local paper really provided no reminder of shortage looming. It wasn't until I cut back my work hours that I had time to look online for more info (while surfing for conspiracy theories to explain the war in Iraq this summer 2005) that I discovered the concept of peak oil (sigh).

I am mainly suprised at how little foresight and analysis major news outlets provide... Financial magazines (Money) should be all over this... CNN should be doing interviews every day. Though they are scratching the surface of the topic, relative to its potential impact the silence surrounding peak oil is deafening. Is that lack of attention conspiracy, wishful thinking, or a blind spot due to lack of imagination? Governments, institutions, and industry have the resources and information needed to guide public behavior and policies, but there has been no public policy guidance in this area...

I'm guilty of assuming that there were no major flaws in our system which would predictably bring recession/depression and social change in the coming decade or two... and trusting that if there were such a flaw that there would be some loud public warning and discussion and planning to prevent that decline. Call me gullible.
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Re: Age 26 or older? What were you thinking?

Postby Windmills » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 12:49:55

I was a nuclear engineering major in college, so I was scientifically aware through most of my life. However, the magnitude of the problem just didn't seem to sink in. I, like many, just assumed that the details would work themselves out. I didn't stop to think the devil is in the details, maybe literally. I never put the entire picture together with all its interconnected pieces. It took time to realize just how pervasive misiniformation was, that not ever "expert" really knew what he was talking about, that not every leader had the best interest of his followers in mind. I think that we all begin life very naive, and becoming aware invovles a long process of shedding propaganda, misinformation, beliefs, traditions, values, lies, and learning who you can and cannot trust, who wants to help you, and who just wants to take advantage of you. All the lies your parents passed on to you have to be shed before you can begin to even comprehend the truth. Once I finally saw a fairly complete picture all in one place, I was stunned into depression and have only slowly been coming out of that as I make efforts to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
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Re: Age 26 or older? What were you thinking?

Postby Trab » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 13:41:09

I was 31 in 2000. I stumbled across Jay Hanson's DieOff site back in 1998 or so, got really bummed out about it for a while, then got caught up in work and personal issues that made me forget about Peak Oil until 2004.

From my point of view, I think that Americans are programmed to be pretty uncurious about their surroundings. Food comes from the grocery store; gas comes from the gas station. The media blasts us with stories about sports, or Paris Hilton, or what famous people are getting divorced, or some dog that managed to travel 1200 miles to get home, etc. We're not actively encouraged to think about the truly important things in life, and we generally don't unless the particular issue is so huge that we and the media can't avoid it.

Saving money and downshifting our 'lifestyles' is bad for a consumer economy, so we're encouraged to spend more, buy more, and consume more. Since distressed people don't usually head on down to Old Navy to buy more clothes, the media does its part by putting out mostly happy talk to keep the consumers content. Even here on Peak Oil, a lot of us (myself included) ruminate on what we need to buy to be safe and comfortable 20 years from now.

Anyway, to get back to the main point, most Americans are trained to not think about weighty subjects like this, and when you bring it up to them, many will resist talking about it. If you like preserving your relations with friends and family, in many cases you just don't bring it up.
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Re: Age 26 or older? What were you thinking?

Postby Guest » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 14:59:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', '
')<snipped>
So, people aged over 26 who didn't learn about the concept of peak oil until this century, please share with me what you were thinking back then. I promise not to be rude to anyone.


I'm 28... In 2000 I'd just gotten the internet... I've known about peak oil for less than a year, I think. Trying to explain it to friends and family garners some strange looks, so I've just given up. I do have one friend who's reading everything she can about it.

anyway... in 2000, I knew fossil fuels were finite but 200 years into the future doesn't affect *me*, right? And they'll find alternatives, right?

Also your 20's are such a mad dash to find yourself or establish yourself financially or start/raise a family (depending on which track you take- for many all of them) worrying about oil running out or global warming or raises in cancer rates or any of that jazz is too overwhelming unless you know it will directly affect you NOW.

My God, a lot of this information gives me an instant headache- I'm surprised I've come this far in learning about it. But I know that it may directly affect me and my family very very soon. (I know this sounds selfish, I'm just being honest)
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Re: Age 26 or older? What were you thinking?

Postby Ancien_Opus » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 15:34:13

I'm almost 50. My grandfather worked for Texaco 35 years in Southern Illinois. I worked for Texaco 2 years right out of High School. In
those early days we knew the shortages where largely political. When Mexico nationalized the oil field you could easily picture the platforms rusting in the Gulf of Mexico. The whole Nixon price freeze business of old oil versus new oil, was all a cruel joke. 1979 was the Iran crisis, again political. If you where anywhere close to the oil industry you knew crude was coming on line because we where finding more than we where using.

So fast forward to 2000. Canatrell is in decline, Prudoe Bay is in deline, and the North Sea is in decline. We're just not finding oil anymore and the great discoveries of the 1990's Caspian basin have been a huge dissappointment. All the powerful technology in world at their disposal and the majors can't reverse the trend. All that technology and they couldn't get more oil out of East Texas, it continues to drop. This time it's geological and not political and that is THE difference.

Grandpa started off in the oil business 1930 as a teamster hauling pipe into the bottom land with two mules. He lived with no electricity, water from a cistern, bee's, hen house and a 40 acre farm. Perhaps two mule farms will be all the rage again.

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Re: Age 26 or older? What were you thinking?

Postby gt1370a » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 18:44:09

I'm almost 27. From '96-'02 I was studying engineering at a top US university. Oil never crossed my mind. Why would I ever think about it when I could fill up the tank for 20 bucks?

When I was a little kid I used to see dumpsters full of garbage and think that before long the whole world would be covered in garbage. Or I'd see all the smoke from a fire and think that if everybody had a woodstove then the whole sky would fill with smoke. When I got older and realized how big the world is, and heard things like "If everyone stood shoulder to shoulder, all 6 billion people could fit in Jackson, Mississippi" I just started to figure that we were well within the earth's carrying capacity. Not until I stumbled upon Matt Savinar's lifeaftertheoilcrash.net did I ever divide 2 trillion by 84 million and realize there was a problem.
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Re: Age 26 or older? What were you thinking?

Postby mgibbons19 » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 20:15:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('1966', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fluffy', 'B')ut free market systems by definition strongly discount the future

this is a stunning observation.
i had never thought about this problem in such crystal clear terms before.
"free market" (this is a very misleading term) economics and finance are all about trashing (discounting) the future.

can anyone refute this?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fluffy', 'S')hould things get to the stage of physical rationing and shortages, I strongly suspect that the idea of leaving it to the market will vanish like the morning dew. We shall see.

i agree totally.


I might suggest that free market systems whose only goal is the quarterly profit report have little regard for the long term future. A less myopic captialism might have enterprising ppl managing their resources better, planning to make a profit on disruptions, planning for a different future.

Edit to add: Known about oil as a finite resource since 1989 - Mr Groff's Ecology class fall smester senior year. But knowing about it and doing anything about it were two different things. What difference does it make if I drive a corolla? honestly now? Zing through the 90s, oil is cheap, shortages didn't materialize. Who knows when the problems are coming? More concerned with grad school, children, career. Screw those things up and they have a definit negative impact on my life RIGHT NOW and forever.

Been familiar with the term peak oil for almost two years now.

So, what could I have done differently anyway.
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Re: Age 26 or older? What were you thinking?

Postby ONeil » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 23:02:02

I'm in my 30's.

There were always other things that seemed to be more important. Not to downplay peak oil, it's just that peak oil never made it my radar screen. The cold war and imminent global death due to thermonuclear war, Collapse of the Former Soviet Union, the economic threat of the European Union, Asian Tigers, Currency Contagion, etc.

I found out about peak oil from a list of 2004's most under reported stories. The internet is an incredible tool, it really is. If it were not for the internet and certain sites, of which peakoil.com is certainly one, far fewer people would be aware of the issue today. Do not underestimate your power to pass this message along, for the internet is only a tool and as such is only as powerful as the people that wield it. There are still many people who are in denial.

The peripheral awareness that you refer to; yes I can say that I was aware that oil was a finite resource, however I also believed the conventional though that this would not be a problem within my life time.

There is another component to this as well. I always believed we would contine to grow. I was rather annoyed with the slow pace of our space programs because I always felt that expansion represented the best option for future growth. So depleting oil will not be a problem, we will find a new energy source in space. Becoming a space faring race will result in changes to our society and these changes will have such a hugh impact that the depletion of one resource should not be a critical event.

Now I realize that we may not have sufficient energy remaining to accomplish the expansionist dream of Star Trek.
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Re: Age 26 or older? What were you thinking?

Postby drew » Mon 07 Nov 2005, 00:05:34

Sorry, I spent the first 30 years of my life with my head up my ass (Bad, bad childhood :x ), and now I'm 42. I had read about PO in 98 in Scientific American, but put it on the back burner for several more years till I read a book review of Hubberts Peak in S.A. (great Mag BTW) around 2001 or 2. I was in the middle of a degree at the time, and busy raising three kids, wife, home, etc.... Funny thing is though, I have a science background (UofW 1986 (intoxicated :cry: )), and have read SA for nealy 20 years. I finally got Hubberts Peak out of the library in the spring of 2004 and was a little floored! Still, I am slow (got to admit it) and didn't start seriously investing in energy till november of last year. As for doomer preps, I have none so far except what I've read up on. I am mostly trying to make as much money as possible and pay down our debt before tshtf. I think energy is such a major part of our existence that it is like the elephant standing in the parlour that you just can't see.

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