by fluffy » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 04:08:32
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', '
')So, people aged over 26 who didn't learn about the concept of peak oil until this century, please share with me what you were thinking back then. I promise not to be rude to anyone.
As an interesting point, as a geology undergraduate at Cambridge in the 1990s, the idea of peak oil was never mentioned. It was possible to infer that oil was getting harder to find - my tutor had made his money in Iran in the 1960s, when you could find multi-billion barrel fields from a bit of surface mapping; we were looking at much smaller fields found with full wave equation seismic migration. But the subject was never quantified. So I would guess that even those who work in the field would have to find out about the subject independantly.
I work in telecomms now. It's one oil substitute.. Telecommuting is one way of reducing oil demand that does not require major investment; it's actually cheaper than commuting now; it's just a culture thing.
But on a wider scale; the idea of modern society is that in many fields you have to trust the experts in charge to tell the truth. You cannot go around finding everything out from first principals for yourself, because you have a finite lifespan.
The problem with the above has been one of free market fundamentalism; the idea that experts, usually but not always in the employ of the government, can decide the best direction for certan vital industries (Food, Energy, Land management, Transport, Water) was discarded and replaced with the idea that 'The market knows best'.
Trade and markets can, of course, do some great things, introducing new technologies, new consumer products, making things cheaper and more widely available, etc - capitalism in itself should not be dismissed outright. But free market systems by definition strongly discount the future, and this can and does cause serious problems with fundamental industries such as those above.
Which means that a lot of people just asume that 'Someone will do Something', without realising that this 'someone' is no longer there. Should things get to the stage of physical rationing and shortages, I strongly suspect that the idea of leaving it to the market will vanish like the morning dew. We shall see.