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THE Precious Metals Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby rogerhb » Thu 13 Oct 2005, 23:00:54

Has nobody heard of hyperinflation to avoid paying debts?

Has nobody heard of barter?
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Buying Silver in Canada.

Unread postby charperus » Fri 14 Oct 2005, 15:31:39

Utopia,
KITCO (www.kitco.ca) has an office in Montreal,Quebec:
620 Cathcart,Suite 900
Montreal,Quebec H3B 1M1
Toll Free:1-800-363-7053
Fax:(514) 875-6484
KITCO's web-site does allow you to order ON-LINE also ; better call them up.
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Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby dbarberic » Fri 14 Oct 2005, 16:14:55

This is just a thought, take it how you wish.
I've read that for asset preservation purposes one should stay away from silver. The rational is, unlike gold, silver is heavily used in manufacturing. In an economic colapse, or deep recession/depression, the industrial demand for silver will fall significantly driving excess silver supply on the market thus lowering its value.
You might be better off with small pieces of gold (i.e. 1/10 Maple Leafs, etc.)
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Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby gt1370a » Fri 14 Oct 2005, 19:36:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dbarberic', 'T')his is just a thought, take it how you wish.
I've read that for asset preservation purposes one should stay away from silver. The rational is, unlike gold, silver is heavily used in manufacturing. In an economic colapse, or deep recession/depression, the industrial demand for silver will fall significantly driving excess silver supply on the market thus lowering its value.
You might be better off with small pieces of gold (i.e. 1/10 Maple Leafs, etc.)

Industrial production (supply) of silver will also fall since it is a byproduct from copper and other mines, which would not be profitable to mine if the industrial demand is not there. Hard to say where things would end up... It's probably a good idea to hold some of each just to hedge your bets.
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Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby Pops » Fri 14 Oct 2005, 20:36:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'H')as nobody heard of hyperinflation to avoid paying debts?

Has nobody heard of unemployment in a hyperinflation scenario?
Most folk’s budget is a balance between income and outflow; better be sure you are sure of an income before you bet the farm on inflation.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby Dukat_Reloaded » Fri 14 Oct 2005, 20:50:37

Hi, I recommend you to buy 1Kg bars of silver. Silver is cheap and you don't want to waste your money on small coins, get big blocks. Different story with gold, I prefer them in coins, for example 1-2 gold coins = 1kg of silver.
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Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby threadbear » Sat 15 Oct 2005, 00:09:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zentric', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marko', 'H')owever, Bob Cousins has made me reconsider my plan to buy junk silver. I had been thinking of these coins as a means of exchange after the dollar becomes worthless, but I think that Bob is probably right that we have mostly lost the culture of using precious metals as means of exchange.

My thinking is that the dollar will survive in the intermediate term, as will the yen, and the yuan (and possibly the Euro too, if the member countries decide not to deconfederate.) But instead of all the currencies and commodities, for purposes of exchange, being denominated in USD, they instead get denominated in gold, which, unlike the USD, is finite in supply and therefore decidedly-less the subject to the tributes, gamesmanship and outright fraud of the banksters or politicians.
Thereby, if BushCo wishes to further bankrupt America, or wishes to continue to lead, thereby further bankrupting America, the value of the USD in realtionship to gold will plummet. Similarly, if Canada wishes to reinvest its oil and mineral wealth into smart, energy-conserving infrastructure, or into its own social fabric in a general sense, its Loonie, in relation to gold, would soar.

Therefore, if an American wants to go to the store and buy a pack of gum, it'll be in US dollars. If a Canadian wants to buy a pack of gum, it'll be in Canadian dollars. And if a Canadian firm wants to import gum manufactured in the US, the firm would, through a bank or banks, convert their loonies into gold and then into US dollars. Everybody wins with this system. Except for the US, which loses its status as the keeper of the world's reserve currency.
Which is possibly exactly what should happen, since the US, it appears, has greatly abused its caretaker status.
Holding gold or silver inside America as an individual ?? Good night, and good luck!!

Do you think that gold and silver would be confiscated by govt. in the US, in an attempt to shore up the fiat currency, domestically? Would moves like this further isolate the US from the world community economically?
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Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby Zentric » Sat 15 Oct 2005, 01:59:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'D')o you think that gold and silver would be confiscated by govt. in the US, in an attempt to shore up the fiat currency, domestically?

I think there's a good chance because America, systemically, is a debtor nation. And requires more expensive oil than just about anywhere else just to get by. But oil/gas is running low and getting expensive, and the infrastructure and institutions are decaying, and its population is dumbed down. The American economic model and living situation is vastly inappropriate for the new realities.

Either in terms of domestic savings or foreign exchange, the US dollar can no longer be seen as a safe harbor in terms of the preservation of purchasing power. With this in mind, what alternatives do foreign governments or investors have to preserve their assets going forward?
First and foremost, to the extent they can without hurting their home economies, foreign governments could seek to bypass the market entirely by prearranging to trade (i.e., barter) goods and services between themselves, thus totally circumventing inflows and outflows with the USD and the America-based sales and distribution system.

They could rely upon stock exchanges or bourses that trade commodities using foreign currencies instead of the USD (and place sanctions upon those countries out there that are determined to curb such free market expression.)
They could, as above, facilitate the convenient exchange of their home currencies with gold, to allow it (instead of USD) to be the universal medium of exchange between countries. And if the US doesn't want to go along with this system, the other countries can still use it to their full advantage amongst themselves, without US participation.

Keep in mind that since the US Fed largely controls the dollar printing presses, some construe that the Fed effectively "steals" from foreigners by irresponsibly inflating the US dollar (the de facto "world currency.") This is over and above the profits made primarily by the US banks from maintaining a "spread" when doing foreign-to-USD currency conversions, which are often required when doing international commerce.

America is weakening - economically, politically and militarily (unless, of course, you count WMDs). So as a result of this, the USD is destined to lose its prominence on the international stage. Since the US economy is all about doing things the old way, soon America will be the provider of almost nothing that the rest of the world needs, while, at the same time, America(ns) will maintain a huge appetite for foreign goods it can scarcely pay for.

Now look at America's gold. The rest of the world would value that - so considering America's national emergency, does some rich, gold-hoarding individual's desire for a new luxury yacht trump the societal need for basics such as food, clothing, warmth and shelter? There are many forms of socialism, but regardless, the socialism that America adopts will not tolerate such massive inequity - at least among its non-party members.
Or maybe I'm wrong. But, in any case, I doubt if FDR were alive today that he'd take much issue with what I'm saying.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ould moves like this further isolate the US from the world community economically?

I guess that would mostly depend on whether we get "new deal" socialism or "national" socialism.
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Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby thuja » Sat 15 Oct 2005, 14:40:29

Silver can be purchased in one ounce rounds/coins or in larger weight bars. The reason for buying the bars is that there is asmaller markup from the "spot" price. However, you need to assess what you are going to do with your silver. If you see this as an investment that you want to cash in as inflation takes over and precious metals go up in price over the next few years, you would do better to buy bars.
Silver undoubtedly will go up in the short term (the next five years). If however, you want to keep your money in something that will survive once the whole system crashes (5-15 years?), silver coins might be a better idea. People who buy in coins are generally buying for survival purposes. They believe that paper based currency will crash to next to zero and only people holding precious metals (and other reality based goods such as lands, lumber, food, etc.) will have something of worth. Survivalists belive that we will revert to a barter and precious metals based economy.
If this is the case, then it could be awfully difficult for you to go out and trade your 100 oz silver bar for something. (I'll take 400 loaves of bread, three hundred fish and that windmill over there please). Furthermore, silver bars can be counterfeited (lead in the middle) and some people may be wary of the true worth of your bar in this post-industrial collapse scenario. On the other hand, nice silver rounds with their troy ounce measurement printed in english (if you are from an english speaking country) may have measureable and useable value. Of course, you can still trade in your coins for cash pre-collapse but you will have to pay a percent decrease from the spot (up to 10 % for coins vs. up to 5% for bars) when you sell.
My recomendation is if you are buying in small amounts (up to 5,000 $), go for coins- its a good bet for post collapse and they will still be redeemable at quite a markup even if we have a soft landing. If you are spending large amounts, do a mixture of mostly bars with some coins. You can always trade in your bars for coins if you think the is really about to htf.
Furthermore, I disagree with others about the merits of gold vs. silver. I believe silver is highly undervalued as gold is worth about 60 times more than silver right now. Traditionally gold used to be worth only between 12 and 16 times the value of silver. Furthermore, silver has industrial uses in the short term and is actually more rare than gold. So good luck with your decision making.
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Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby Jenab » Tue 18 Oct 2005, 22:19:08

The government might confiscate precious metals again, so...

Hi' yo' silver...away! :)
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Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby rogerhb » Tue 18 Oct 2005, 22:24:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jenab', 'T')he government might confiscate precious metals again, so...
Hi' yo' silver...away! :)

Or rather "The US government....."
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby Dukat_Reloaded » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 10:53:18

$5000 worth of silver coins? That is 20kg. Seriously use silver bars as a inflation hedge for now as silver supplies are almost out, they'll increase alot in the near short term in dollar value. Many industries will buy your silver bars and pay you a premium for them rather than old silver dimes that have to be re-smelted down and refined again because they are only 90% silver. I really think you'd be better off with small gold coins rather than silver if you believe you'll need them to barter with. If I was a seller of bread and there were 2 customers and 1 loaf of bread, I'd sell to the person who had gold before I would sell to the silver man.
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Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby dbarberic » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 11:48:42

If your looking for an inflation hedge, then check out EverBank: http://www.everbank.com
Look under the link "curriences". They have multi-currency CDs, savings, and checking accounts, etc. All of them have different minimum investment amounts. I'm strongly considering their Multi Currency Prudent Central Bank Index CD.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')rudent Central Bank CD—Looking for Central Banks that don't take inflation lightly? Take the diversified approach with the FDIC-insured^ Prudent Central Bank CD. This CD is designed to seek higher yields and potential capital gains from currencies that are backed by strong, inflation-fighting Central Banks. By maintaining inflation fighters, the currencies associated with these countries should remain in favor. Includes the Australian Dollar, the New Zealand Dollar, the Euro, and the British Pound.

They also have a product called MarketSafe Gold Bullion CD. Earn the greater of:
a) 100% of the upside price performance of the Spot Price of Gold Bullion; based on the average of 10 semiannual Pricing Dates, plus all Principal; or
b) 100% of Principal
I don't like the fact that it has a five year minimum investment period though.
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Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby thuja » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 12:22:52

One simple answer to silver coins over gold coins is that 1/10 of an ounce right now is worth a little less than 50 dollars. One silver coin is worth a little less than 8. Assuming that your coins keep up with possible hypereinflation (or hopefully beat it), you would want the smallest denomination possible for exchanging for goods.
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Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby richardmmm » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 12:35:46

small silver is a pain because it tarnishes, it is not like gold, it will go all black and oxidised after a while. of course that also means you are loosing small amounts of weight as the oxide forms.
100oz is only $750, so you want to buy large bars.
But really right now it not the time to be taking delivery.

If you want to protect against bad inflation and depression etc. then just by some from Kitco and have them hold it. You can buy from many different places and if you do the research right without storage fees.
Once you see things are getting a bit messy then you can always take physical delivery and if times improve then you can always sell it, without so many fees and costs of actually getting the metal delivered.

It could be that everything pans out smooth, you always have to remember that it is much better to lose your opinion not your money.
If silver crashes back to $4oz as a wave of nano tech and robotics takes hold of the stock market and a new boom insues, you'll be feeling pretty dumb, with your blackened silver coins that have halved in value.

I also believe that there might be a hyper inflation situation at some point and the paper money situation can fall apart, however it would be better at this stage of the game just to hold contracts, futures, EFTs, or physical with a broker. Getting it delivered is not going to be a problem once you already own it, provided you keep abreast of current affairs.
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Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby GoIllini » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 12:59:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dukat', '$')5000 worth of silver coins? That is 20kg. Seriously use silver bars as a inflation hedge for now as silver supplies are almost out, they'll increase alot in the near short term in dollar value. Many industries will buy your silver bars and pay you a premium for them rather than old silver dimes that have to be re-smelted down and refined again because they are only 90% silver. I really think you'd be better off with small gold coins rather than silver if you believe you'll need them to barter with. If I was a seller of bread and there were 2 customers and 1 loaf of bread, I'd sell to the person who had gold before I would sell to the silver man.

Again, gold is only a valuable because it's used in jewelry and because people say, "Oh- that's a rare metal. I think I'll shell out $500/oz for it." OK; there are a few other industrial applications for gold, but not many.
Silver is actually pretty useful to industry, relative to its $8/oz price.

But in the end, I think that part of it might have to do with how much money you have, and how much travel you plan on doing. $250 worth of silver weighs a pound; if you plan on taking delivery on 500 lbs of silver, storing it in your basement, and using a pound or two every once in a while to buy stuff, silver coins are a good move.
If you're doomish enough to plan on heading a long distance by foot, it might not be easy to carry more than, say, three or four pounds of currency. (It's tough enough to carry 40 lbs of equipment when you're going backpacking without currency and as some people argue one might need, a weapon.)

If ~$1000 worth of silver today sounds like plenty of money to you, silver coins still work great. If you plan on needing more, you might want to switch to gold.
IMHO, platinum might be your best bet. We'll need it if we make it to a hydrogen economy. It'll be tough to distinguish from another metal in an end-of-civilization situation, though.
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Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby pattyflip » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 13:01:32

What about silver jewellery. Is it just junk or is it also a good investment.
What is the intrinsic value or silver content of common silver jewellery.
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Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby jdumars » Thu 20 Oct 2005, 23:43:24

I have a nagging question that has yet to be satisfactorally answered. While it seems smart to invest one's current dollars into future commodities (gold, silver, firearms, salt, etc.), it doesn't address what I see as the most unavoidable future dollar expense -- property taxes. In about 6 months, our land will be completely paid off and ready to live on. We've built the treehouse, have all we need to live on there including ample seeds, firearms, ammunition, spare lumber, a large Alder lot, berry bushes, apple tree, etc. But what do we do in say 10 years when it comes time to pay the property taxes to the county? They are not going to accept silver coins, gold or .22LR ammo. They are going to demand US currency. This means we have to have a very large stash of potentially useless currency on hand indefinitely. Unlike some of my fellow doomers, I think the government will be one of the very last systems to fail. I am expecting taxation to be a lingering and potentially disasterous liability. How are others addressing this? Mind you, this is not a theoretical exercise; it is a very real world concern for my wife and I right now. Where we plan to live (wilderness), there aren't going to be places to exchange silver or gold for the "spot price" and I imagine this will be true for many other locales where peakers are choosing to ride out the oil/financial/political storm. I'd love to hear suggestions on this -- and not avoidance of the taxes either. I want to stay completely off the legal radar! My biggest fear isn't a bunch of torch-wielding looters... it's the county sherrif with a warrant collecting on back taxes.
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Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby rogerhb » Thu 20 Oct 2005, 23:48:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdumars', 'B')ut what do we do in say 10 years when it comes time to pay the property taxes to the county? They are not going to accept silver coins, gold or .22LR ammo. They are going to demand US currency.

According to the US constitution silver is the US currency of which a dollar is a denomination. According the US constitution this is the only thing that can be used to pay debts to the government.
Douglas Gnazzo has the details at Financial Sense.
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby TnAndy » Fri 21 Oct 2005, 23:26:13

Actually, Roger, that isn't true.
What the Constitution says is a couple of things.....
First, Congress has the power to "coin money and determine the value thereof".......in theory, and in practice, CONgress could "coin" money out of paper....and has even BEFORE they turned over their constitutionally manadated responsibility to an unconstitutional private banking organization, the "Federal" ( it ain't ) Reserve.
The next thing the Constitution says is "No State shall make any Thing but gold or silver tender in payment of debt"......

That means the STATES cannot constitutionally pay THEIR debts in anything but gold or silver. I've often wondered WHY someone with a state debt ( such as a state job or retirement, or some vendor that sold something to a State ) doesn't press this quite clear constitutional issue and refuse to accept a paper check for Fed Reserve Notes.
But it doesn't say "I" can't pay the State ( or more properly, the county which is where property taxes generally orignate ) in paper IF they are so stupid as to take it.

But to the issue of property taxes......THAT is one reason I personally have a pile of US silver coins....junk silver.....
1. I think they will be quite exchangable for FRNs ( Fed Reserve Notes ) no matter WHERE you live as long as UPS or any such service is availiable. I bought mine from a place in California for mid 3k per bag ( $1000 face amount ) and the SAME PLACE is quite willing to buy them back right now for low 5k range......and when silver hits it's own in the not too distance future, I can see that bag being worth 20-50K FRN....THAT will pay a LOT of property taxes, man.
2. SHOULD the bottom fall plumb out of silver ( which as long as there is ANY industrial process going on, isn't going to happen...do some reading up on silver.....the above ground stocks are nearly GONE..... ), they are STILL US coin worth $1000......IF you want to play this both ways, buy 40% Kennedy halves......right now they are about 2k for a $1000 face.....you can still ride the silver rocket when it goes, and only have a 1000FRN downside if the world craps totally out.
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