[Daryl]

This discussion is for cornucopian/soft landing peak oilers. Wanted to throw out some ideas about how a slow transformation would play out.

Was thinking about Kunstler critiques of suburbia. How could a city like Dallas adjust to expensive, scarce gas? Employment is decentralized over large suburban areas with no public transportation. Could they build a skeletal rail transit system and combine it with a large flexible hydrogen bus system? A hydrogen bus system wouldn't have the same supply infrastructure issues that an auto-based hydrogen system would have. It could also could be implemented quickly and cheaply. Could government and businessess cooperate to rationalize the employment market? For example, get all the secretaries who live in South Dallas and commute to North Dallas to switch jobs with the secretaries who live in North Dallas and commute to South Dallas. Could suburbanites buy mopeds to do grocery shopping with? Would small local delis/grocery stores boom? Kunstler makes it sound like if WalMart and Target go out of business, we won't be able to buy anything anymore. They put the locals out of business very quickly, why couldn't the locals reopen about as quickly as they closed?

[Heineken]

You need to educate yourself about the realities behind hydrogen. Hydrogen isn't the answer. So much fuel is needed to generate hydrogen that you might as well burn the fuel directly and not bother with the hydrogen "carrier." Hydrogen is going nowhere, buddy.

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'Y')ou need to educate yourself about the realities behind hydrogen. Hydrogen isn't the answer. So much fuel is needed to generate hydrogen that you might as well burn the fuel directly and not bother with the hydrogen "carrier." Hydrogen is going nowhere, buddy.

[GrizzAdams]

And don't for get about the cheaply built houses. Most newer suburbs around here, build houses using the cheapest and fewest materials as possible, but it appears luxurious. Under-built and over-rated. But I think these houses won't last very long at all, even if our so called economy keeps cruising along somehow.

[jaws]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'City of Chicago
Population by year
1840 4,470
1850 29,963
1860 112,172
1870 298,977
1880 503,185
1890 1,099,850
1900 1,698,575
1910 2,185,283
1920 2,701,705
1930 3,376,438
')
Between 1890 and 1910 Chicago added one million people to its population. Cheap construction and relaxed urban zoning can allow very rapid transformation of an urban area. Just by building over parking lots a suburban city can make itself urban (and fit for mass transit systems) in the span of a couple of years. The only problems are the regulation and the political will to change them.

[0mar]

Now if people like you populated the city, county, state and federal boards we'd see some semblance of a soft crash.

Asset inertia alone will fuck us in the ass hard and long.

[Daryl]

We need a crisis. In that case, I think change could come quickly. Both political parties will make a mad dash to own the issue. (The Republicans will get slaughtered). I'm a good example. Even though I became aware of most of these issues in 1980, I've had my head in the sand for 25 years. I was amazed that the gas stations were closed in my town for 3 full days after Katrina, and we didn't even have a real supply interruption. That was just a little nervous hoarding. It got me thinking about the grocery stores and the distribution system. Then a friend of mine sent me a link to Kunstler's site and here I am.

Hillary will be der OilFuehrer!

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'T')his discussion is for cornucopian/soft landing peak oilers. Wanted to throw out some ideas about how a slow transformation would play out.

Was thinking about Kunstler critiques of suburbia. How could a city like Dallas adjust to expensive, scarce gas? Employment is decentralized over large suburban areas with no public transportation. Could they build a skeletal rail transit system and combine it with a large flexible hydrogen bus system? A hydrogen bus system wouldn't have the same supply infrastructure issues that an auto-based hydrogen system would have. It could also could be implemented quickly and cheaply. Could government and businessess cooperate to rationalize the employment market? For example, get all the secretaries who live in South Dallas and commute to North Dallas to switch jobs with the secretaries who live in North Dallas and commute to South Dallas. Could suburbanites buy mopeds to do grocery shopping with? Would small local delis/grocery stores boom? Kunstler makes it sound like if WalMart and Target go out of business, we won't be able to buy anything anymore. They put the locals out of business very quickly, why couldn't the locals reopen about as quickly as they closed?

[Liamj]

Worth reading David Holmgren on this problem, see
http://www.energybulletin.net/5104.html
for the text or orig pdf http://www.bml.csiro.au/susnetnl/netwl49E.pdf
for some interesting pics too.

Instant summary:
Food security based on gardening
Better health through a culture of home food consumption
Economy through home food production and food preservation
Firewood for sustainable and ethical energy
Passive solar design combined with thermally efficient natural materials
Retrofitting attached greenhouses to existing homes
Water harvesting and natural wastewater treatment
Animals in productive garden ecosystems
Reclaiming the streets
Creative recycling
City farms and community gardens
New ways of trading
New ways of sharing land

[jaws]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'T')he soft landing will most likely happen for the wealthiest in society and globally.

People with access to money will continue to drive their SUV's and Hummers long after people with more fuel efficient cars are unable to fill them at the bowser.

[GoIllini]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'T')he soft landing will most likely happen for the wealthiest in society and globally.

People with access to money will continue to drive their SUV's and Hummers long after people with more fuel efficient cars are unable to fill them at the bowser.

[jmacdaddio]

Today I'm wearing my optimist hat.

I foresee zoning changes - already new developments in some areas require mixed use zoning in addition to mixed housing types. I rented an apartment in one such subdivision where you could *gasp* walk to a grocery store if you wanted.

Suburb to suburb commuting is the norm now rather than taking the 7.28 train in to a city center each day, so adjustments will need to happen. Since new railroads will take decades, we don't have time: what will probably happen is that companies will find ways to move their sites closer to what mass transit remains and individuals in greater numbers will choose a smaller house closer to work rather than the 5000 sf monster 50 miles away.

More people will rediscover gardening as a way to supplement their pantries. Community greenhouses can flourish in areas where there is a sense of community.

When I put on my pessimist hat I realize that so many sheeple don't know what's coming and they don't know that this is only the beginning.

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'T')he soft landing will most likely happen for the wealthiest in society and globally.

People with access to money will continue to drive their SUV's and Hummers long after people with more fuel efficient cars are unable to fill them at the bowser.

[katkinkate]

I see many suburbanites migrating closer to established public transport corridors and the city centre and businesses migrating out of the centre towards the workforce. Small stores, light industry and farmers markets opening where people live. Suburbs developing back into sateite towns that eventually will establish their own local leadership. Suburbs too far away from public transport will eventually be deserted and maybe revert back to local farmland to feed the small towns and larger city nearby.

This would be gradual, like over decades and I have no doubt those decades will be full of economic hardship, riots, some death, some martial law, hunger, loss of services, etc. But I don't think the big cities will die off totally (unless hit by nuclear weapons ). As water and electricity service dies, the sky scrapers will be deserted above the 4th or 5th floor, then as they get dangerous will be abandoned totally and the businesses will migrate to the outskirts of the centre. New buildings will probably be built from materials scavenged from the sky scrapers.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('katkinkate', '
')This would be gradual, like over decades and I have no doubt those decades will be full of economic hardship, riots, some death, some martial law, hunger, loss of services, etc.

[Macsporan]

I expect suburbs will wither and be dug up for market-gardens.

High-density housing will return and transport will be increasingly by rail.

SUVs will be melted down to make railway tracks.

It will require a lot of money and effort. No doubt some people will become rich doing it while others will see their fortunes go down the drain. It is the way of the world. After all, who weeps for the trilobites?

The Late Roman Empire was the same. As the cities decayed people stopped spending money on baths and forums and started building Churches and monastaries instead.

At least we'll be getting value for money with our railways.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Macsporan', 'S')UVs will be melted down to make railway tracks.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', ' ')Remember we do not have an energy crisis, we have a liquid fuel crisis and transition from cheap to more expensive energy but still abundant energy. I notice how many former doomers are slowly realizing that there will not be this great collapse unless of course nature as in global warming or bird flu throw us some nasty parties. This is more likely a source of collapse than energy depletion.

[GoIllini]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'P')fft! I guess we can just ignore the huge debt we piled up with cheap energy. It will be easy to service the cheap debt with expensive debt.

[jtmorgan61]

What I see for the suburbs of San Diego...

First, the suburbs are going to stop growing. Property prices in the most distant suburbs will fall, not catastrophically but enough to hurt the economy some.

People will start to move closer to work. Areas with a lot of businesses will get drastically built up and densified. Areas where you have to drive 20 minutes to shop may be rezoned (and thanks to last year's supreme court ruling, the land grab will be easy.)

More people will buy bikes and motorcycles, or walk to work. More people will take the bus. Rails will be built but are going to lag demand in a big way.

People are still going to live in more distant houses, they're going to be wealthy people and retired people who don't have anywhere to go most days. A good portion of power will be generated locally by renewables. And some of the small scale farming stuff might go on in places, but frankly I think that the landing just isn't going to be hard enough that everyone needs to become a subsistence farmer when they get home from work.

I also think the landing isn't going to be hard enough (between alternate oil generation keeping supply reductions moderate and hybrid/plugin hybrid/battery/hydrogen transitions keeping demand moderate) that 5-20 mile commutes are going to become totally uneconomic. So I expect many suburban areas to get along pretty well.