[dbarberic]

In somewhat along the lines of what your saying, I’m surprised that no one has thought of a transformation of large houses in ex and suburbs into multi-family residences. A 3,000 – 4,000 sq home could be divided up for 2-3 or maybe even 4 families, thus making the large structure more economical to run. It would also need to be converted to renewable energy sources. In addition, during a time of resource scarcity, it would more expensive to revitalize urban housing, which is often decaying to the core, than it would be to take a fairly new house and divide it up internally. Most of the subdivisions that I have seen have large green spaces that could be zoned into common grounds for the community and most have sidewalks, parks, playgrounds, etc.

The biggest obstacle will be transportation to and from work and walk-able retail stores, but this is where I see plenty of opportunity entrepreneurs in the post peak world. As the cost of energy increases, it will get to a point where the global/regional centralized model of manufacturing no longer makes business sense as the costs of transportation exceed what the market is willing to pay for the goods. I believe that we will move back to locally based manufacturing by small business and retail stores. Smart businesses will move to these large groupings of subdivision locations as they have a built in local customer and employee base.

Not all suburbs will survive, as some are built in just so remote or have other fundamental flaws in layout that prevent a successful transformation, but I believe others may do OK.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')aryl, I like the cut of your jib! I think some folks are coming to the same conclusion in some of the worst sprawl centers. The status quo is stressed and so people are starting to look to urban planners for solutions. I think that if you cut away the doomer "noise" in Kunstler's rants, his thoughts apropos suburban reinvention have merit: transform them so that they are more independent. That demands, as you noted, some change in suburb zoning, specifically by introducing a greater mix of industrial and commercial spaces. In other words, allocation of more space for local agriculture and distribution and the reintroduction of the "middle man" as a logistics facilitator between local and national stakeholders and markets to make it all work.

Regardless of the ultimate form of this transformation, I think that many doomers shortchange the ability of the average person to change and the value of our accumulated knowledge base. I still think that we will have to "powerdown," especially with regards to transportation. As a result, things will be different, but not necessarily worse.

Oh yeah, I'd be remiss if I didn't throw out a potential silver-lining for you: telecommuting. Can it work?

[Dezakin]

MonteQuest:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e must learn to live within our means, and within the limits of the environment.

Why is it that so few get this? All I hear are solutions in isolation.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dbarberic', 'I')n somewhat along the lines of what your saying, I’m surprised that no one has thought of a transformation of large houses in ex and suburbs into multi-family residences. A 3,000 – 4,000 sq home could be divided up for 2-3 or maybe even 4 families, thus making the large structure more economical to run.

[holmes]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'M')onteQuest:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e must learn to live within our means, and within the limits of the environment.

Why is it that so few get this? All I hear are solutions in isolation.

[holmes]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dbarberic', 'I')n somewhat along the lines of what your saying, I’m surprised that no one has thought of a transformation of large houses in ex and suburbs into multi-family residences. A 3,000 – 4,000 sq home could be divided up for 2-3 or maybe even 4 families, thus making the large structure more economical to run.

[GoIllini]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', ' ')Apparently, when the cost of energy skyrockets, as you claim, American coal is somehow going to be cheap and not be used to pay off the country's trade debts.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('holmes', 'U') speak truth. Good to have u here. Thanks.

[GoIllini]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') am not assessing blame, but looking at reality. A derivative is a financial instrument that derives its value from the value of other financial instruments or an underlying asset. It has no intrinsic value. By their very nature they encourage high degrees of speculation. It is the size of the derivatives market based upon “financial speculation” that worries many. We’ve been able to clone hundreds of trillions of dollars of metaphysical wealth from the seeds of debt.

It’s all a mirage.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he job of a derivatives trader is like that of a bookie once removed, taking bets on people making bets.— Linda Davies

[Daryl]

A McMansion could easily be divided into a 3 family home. The entry hall could be a common hallway with two families sharing a front door exit. An upstairs bedroom has to be converted to a kitchen and another kitchen has to be added in the basement, which has it's own entrance. They are usually already triple zoned for heat. No problem. I lived in a very similar apartment in Brooklyn - a brownstone once occupied by the wealthy class that had been chopped up into three separate apartments.

Many who make anti-suburban comments in these forums, like Kunstler, were anti-suburb long before they stumbled on Peak Oil. The glee Kunstler takes in describing the destruction of suburbia lessens his credibility as a commentator. Often, these people are suburban kids who moved into to the inner city as young adults and never got over their adolescent rebellion against their fathers.

I don't think this housing stock will be abandoned, except in certain areas. Large chunks of it will be made salvageable through creative transformation. We almost have to. Remember, we have more people than we had during the idyllic 1850's, or whatever fantasy era it is the anti-surburbantites want to go back to.

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou tell me: will oil prices be high or low? If they're high, we pay off the debt by converting coal into oil. If they're low, we don't have any problems from peak oil.

We do have a gigantic commodities market, but the world needs energy to keep running. One day, the value of our coal production will be 1/2 China's GDP.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'R')emember, we have more people than we had during the idyllic 1850's, or whatever fantasy era it is the anti-surburbantites want to go back to.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'A') McMansion could easily be divided into a 3 family home. The entry hall could be a common hallway with two families sharing a front door exit. An upstairs bedroom has to be converted to a kitchen and another kitchen has to be added in the basement, which has it's own entrance. They are usually already triple zoned for heat. No problem. I lived in a very similar apartment in Brooklyn - a brownstone once occupied by the wealthy class that had been chopped up into three separate apartments.

[emersonbiggins]

A lesson in suburbia:




Again,
Brownstones: 'good' suburbia
McMansions: 'bad' suburbia

[Daryl]

1 - Brownstones are urban dwellings, not suburban.

2 - The brownstone I lived in was modified substantially from it's original layout in order to accomodate 3 apartments. I'm sure the original owners would have been horrified at the pathetic lifestyle my fiance and I led on the second floor. People will make a fortune buying McMansions, investing the conversion money and collecting 3 rents.

3 - The guys idea of partitioning the McMansions is solid. The occupants won't be the same people who originally bought the McMansion. Sure some floors will be more attractive than others. The rents on those floors will be higher.

4 - McMansion subdivisions don't have big lots. The houses look grand only in the pictures taken from a low angle in front of house. You always see them from this angle because they are built right next to each other. That's a good thing for the future, because the subdivisions actually do have a higher population density than you think.

[mgibbons19]

I can't help but think of all the other examples of adapting to changing economies that come to mind. Gary, IN as steel changed. The Iron Range of MN as mining changed. Appalchia as other mining changed. The bust towns of the gold rush, the bust towns of the near west oil rush. Flint et al, MI as automaking changed. The whole east coast as textiles changed. The whole midwest as farming changed over the last century.

There seems to be at least even odds that under the right future scenario, it really won't be that salvagable.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mgibbons19', 'I') can't help but think of all the other examples of adapting to changing economies that come to mind. Gary, IN as steel changed. The Iron Range of MN as mining changed. Appalchia as other mining changed. The bust towns of the gold rush, the bust towns of the near west oil rush. Flint et al, MI as automaking changed. The whole east coast as textiles changed. The whole midwest as farming changed over the last century.

There seems to be at least even odds that under the right future scenario, it really won't be that salvagable.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', '1') - Brownstones are urban dwellings, not suburban.

[jmacdaddio]

McMansions won't be divided up into multiple family dwellings. That would require money to invest (we won't have it), a skilled labor pool (not people who can barely read or balance a checkbook), and resources available (good luck trucking in lumber, sheet rock, pipes, etc). The idea that they will become the slums of the future is just a reaction in the same vein of predicting that SUVs will become planters or used as chicken coops. When we see something that is presented now as an outward sign of wealth (McMansion, SUV, etc) but is really detrimental to society and therefore despised by most on this board, we wish that today's sign of wealth becomes tomorrow's slum and rusting hulk up on cinder blocks -- chalk it up to schadenfreude and a desire to see our own choices vindicated.

Realistically, McMansion sprawl would just get abandoned in favor of denser housing in cities or near train stations. Three families occupying a McHouse means three times the food has to get trucked in to the local supermarket, three times as many commutes from 34 miles outside of Dallas (Phoenix, Orlando, Minneapolis, choose a city), etc. And McMansions are not brownstones, and I don't see how they could get occupied by multiple families (unless in the case of extended families or groups of squatters who band together). There are isolated spots where developers are making McBrownstones, but it's too little, too late.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jmacdaddio', 'R')ealistically, McMansion sprawl would just get abandoned in favor of denser housing in cities or near train stations.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jmacdaddio', 'T')he idea that they will become the slums of the future is just a reaction in the same vein of predicting that SUVs will become planters or used as chicken coops... we wish that today's sign of wealth becomes tomorrow's slum and rusting hulk up on cinder blocks -- chalk it up to schadenfreude and a desire to see our own choices vindicated.