[abelardlindsay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')on't even think of putting your money in Russia. If you make too much you'll wind up in jail or on Putin's S*** list just like Berezovsky and Khodorkovsky.

[MrBill]

By the way, if anyone is interested you can read a different take on where to invest in Russia written by Eric Kraus & crew at Slovlink Securities. They cover a lot of second tier investments. More than the so called Russian Blue Chips like Lukoil covered by everyone else.

They are very pointed in their criticisms when they have them.

Eric Kraus was on CNN yesterday in case anyone caught him? In any case, Truth & Beauty can be had by contacting

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'r')esearch@sovlink.ru

[midnight-gamer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ast forward two years from now. Oil is still $65 due to that lower demand and new supply coming online. America is still running a budget and trade deficit, but to pay for it interest rates are higher again and the dollar is weaker still. Say 1.600 and 72.50 or another 15%. I think at this point the Arabs are very unhappy about pricing oil in dollars and the Japanese are no longer keen to buy US debt. Then interest rates have to go significantly higher causing a recession or stagflation or the US would have to take the unbelievable step of issuing debt in euros or yen. This is the end game.

[pedalling_faster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', 'A')fter you, for example do you agree or disagree with what I said in the part that of my post you didn't quote or comment? But even humble ignoramus like me has read enough to know that those figures are not generally worth the paper they are printed on, OPEC reserves, GDP, rigged inflation numbers, rigged employment numbers, PPT rigged stock exchange etc., the whole field of mainstream economics of market fundamentalism that almost categorically ignores the empirical methodology and intellectual honesty that is required for a field of science.

[dorlomin]

The FT discusses the possible eclipse of the dollar hegmony and its results.

link

Hmmm Europe is going to loss alot of trade to the US especialy in the big high tech areas, Arianespace, Airbus and EADS amoung others will be the losers. But on the other hand the old Germans have lived with strong currencies since the 70s at least.

Id guess a two or three year recession is better than 'locking in' (to use the trendy British term) inflation and price instability. They will attract more foriegn investment and capital to soak up the credit 'crisis' (there must be a bloody better term than subprime crisis or credit crunch) in there financial institutions leaving them in a stronger long term position.

Better to take the hit on the dollars "begger thy neighbour' devaluation and still be able to buy raw materials like say ooooh oil on the world market.

Just some thoughts folks.

[manu]

The $ crash is just the beginning. The dominos are in place and will all fall. It is a world wide crash. Don't think it can't happen. What's left of the oil will be fought over and blown up.

[manu]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Well, yes, Mr. Bean, however, I am not an economist, I am an investment banker and an energy trader. I put my money where my mouth is everyday, so I have to understand micro- and macroeconomics as well as finance and the time value of money. Not to mention foreign exchange trading and money markets.

[MrBill]

You're right, Manu, it sucks to be me! ; - ))