$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', 'T')askforce_Unity -
A factor in the date of peak that seems to me central is that of refining capacity. Am I right in thinking that (beside draws for 'strategic reserves')the rate of extraction from oil reserves is utterly limited by refinery capacity?
PeakOil is You
Major-project delays to speed up peak?
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Re: Major-project delays to speed up peak?
by Taskforce_Unity » Tue 04 Oct 2005, 03:36:12
no you are wrong. The surplus oil that cannot be refined (until a certain point) is stored. That's what also happened after the oil shocks. Prices went way up so what did companies do? Hoard oil and store it in their storage tanks on land. Probably to make profit. It was actually the case to my knowledge that the storage was too full while there was a shortage going on at the streets!
So if there is no refinery capacity a part of the oil will be stored until storage is probably full. After that some fields will probably be mothballed (taken out of production), or maybe lowered in their production capacity.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', '
')Given that we're seeing this capacity eroded by sheer age, by the supply of a rising proportion of dirtier crude, and apparently by market pressures to skimp on maintenance, as well as by the rising incidence of very extreme weather events, new refinery build must first offset all these erosions before it can allow increased product supply.
jep this is correct i think
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', '
')I understand that Saudi funds are aimed at bringing 2.4Mbpd of new refineries online by 2011.
As far as iknow entire opec is going to bring 2.1 Mbpd of new refineries online by 2011 (will likely be a little bit more). Im at the moment looking into it so ill doublecheck with some other source (now only got bloomberg)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', '
')Given calculable reserve depletion between now and 2011, it thus seems likely that we are now at (or a few weeks past) peak oil.
Nope, we are now at the still slowly increasing "Plateau" (somewhere between 4-5 Mb/pd between now and 2011 if you look at it optimisticly from the refinery side. Unless you believe that teh world is depleting with 5% per year (which i deem impossible since we would have already peaked a few years ago in that case, these things build up slowly)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', '
')I continue to follow your modelling the peak in oil production. How do you see the damage from the Gulf to the rigs and platforms effecting your estimated peak in production? I saw an article by Spartacus on the "current events" forum (gulf rig damage) that a BP gas/oil field may not be brought back into production bc it wouldn't be economical. I'm interested in hearing how you feel this will play out.
The damage from the gulf rigs and platforms and other disruptions are covered in an extra scenario i made (delay & disruption). what it comes down to is that maximum possible growth will be not really more then 1.2% probably (in the most optimistic case around 1.5-2%), refinery constraints bring production limit to around 1%.
To my knowledge we will still not peak until before 2010, I also don't think that Non-OPEC will peak before 2010. Could be wrong though if my depletion estimates (which are quite pessimistic, worse then ASPO's) are too optimistic (IEA and Exxon-Mobil have more pessimistic estimates --> around 5%). Im more in the line with Shell --> around 2% depletion annualy.
Im still working on my report, final version will be out as soon as possible. (hopefully at the end of this week)
It's taking me quite some extra time to make the text as formal as is possible. (Im Dutch and im not used to formal writing, this is the first report of this size i EVER wrote, not that old you know :D). Anyway i have some help from editors and a native american is going to help me today. Im also adding some extra things, i added refinery capacity scenario's yesterday.
What i did so far was this:
Added a chapter about different methodologies of calculating the peak
I reworked all the numbers.... (lots of work but more accurate now). All projects have been added with lots of detail and references! (55 pages of appendix...)
Made a new scenario for the 2005-2010 period called "realism" which incorporates refinery capacity/disruptions & delays.
Made 2 new scenarios for the period beyond 2010, one which includes these disruption & delays (and refinery capacity but that is not really interesting anymore after 2010). And one which includes extra production from reserve growth (or technology, just how you wish to call it
)
Added a chapter called indicators for an early peak
Added an appendix about the differences between ODAC, CERA and my study
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Taskforce_Unity - Coal
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