[some_guy282]

I'm remembering Simmons' recent interview with Jim Puplava. "We have a fabulous respite from labor day to Thanksgiving, where the world hunkers down and we try to figure out how we're going to meet demand this winter." That's what he said more or less.

Some F'ning respite this is turning out to be.

[OilsNotWell]

But meantime, here's what's being said to lull the masses back to sleep:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')S oil sees less damage than feared from Rita

...

"We dodge a bullet with this storm," said Chuck Dunlap of Pasadena Refining, which was restarting its Houston refinery on Sunday. "It could've been a lot worse."

reuters

[OZ_DOC]

The statements regarding european spr shipments and additional imports from elsewhere have been irritating me too. Sure there may be a small amount of capacity for additional shipments, but do people think that there is a fleet of tankers sitting somwhere waiting to pick up the slack? Then once they arrive in the US currently the LOOP, the port of galveston, Houston and Port Arthur are all closed. THese are some of the largest ports in the country handling well over 1000 ships per day. Surely people realize that the ability of the US to maintain pre rita and katrina imports is probably not sustainable. Then even if the supply was available, and it was possible to imprt through alternate ports theres still a refinery bottleneck. Net effect- IMHO serious shortages of refined products for the winter.

[gt1370a]

Are you talking about "people's" reactions or the market? I'm not surprised, after a couple years of discussing Peak Oil with people, that no one is paying attention.

The market however, that's what I'm having a hard time figuring out. I guess $65 oil was in anticipation of some major supply disruption, and it just hasn't been as bad as they expected. Most of the damage has been really short-term. Now, maybe the picture will change once the weekly inventory reports start showing declines and the 4th quarter supply becomes an issue, who knows. There have also been some lowered demand estimates, and we are in a period of seasonally low demand...

[NeoPeasant]

I am expecting some sobering crude, gasoline, and distillate inventory reports over the next couple weeks to wake people back up.

Either that or there is a lot of compensating demand destruction going on out there.

[shortonoil]

The choices we have are lovely. Shut down gas fired electrical generation and freeze this winter or shut down fertilizer production and starve next fall. Do you think anyone in Washington is taking our predicament seriously yet or are they more concerned with the war protesters and their falling approval ratings.

[LadyRuby]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilsNotWell', 'Q')uietly prepare, because no matter what you say, most people including your loved ones are no't going to believe it could get THAT bad...but they'll surely appreciate your foresight if things DO get THAT bad..and if things don't get THAT bad, so what, you've got a little extra stashed, and it's probably not going to lose its value, and its stuff you will use in time anyway...

[LadyRuby]

For example, think warm robes. I bought a couple of warm used, durable wool robes on e-bay (that would normally retail for over $150) for about $15. I intend for us to keep our heat down this winter as much as possible. Actually I don't know that cost-wise it will be all that bad this winter since my natural gas supplier has to get price hikes approved in advance, but change is coming.

[Yamaha_R6]

I just dont get it. If their really IS a major supply shortage, and if they do not raise prices to create enough demand destruction to make demand = to supply, then wont we just plain sell out of gas?

I live in Cali and it is like nothing ever happened. Gas is a little more expensive, all the stations still have gas, its pretty much business as usual.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilsNotWell', 'I')n a nutshell, virtually 3/4 of the script for the 'Oil Storm' is playing out, and prices go down...must be one hell of a recession looming one wonders...

[jdumars]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hoplite', 'H')OW DARE THEY NOT FOLLOW THE PO DOOMERS SCRIPT! The idiots, don't they know we NEED THIS to happen? We've already bought heritage seeds fer christ's sake!! Next thing you know the housing bubble will keep growing!!

[jdumars]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gt1370a', 'T')he market however, that's what I'm having a hard time figuring out. I guess $65 oil was in anticipation of some major supply disruption, and it just hasn't been as bad as they expected.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdumars', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hoplite', 'H')OW DARE THEY NOT FOLLOW THE PO DOOMERS SCRIPT! The idiots, don't they know we NEED THIS to happen? We've already bought heritage seeds fer christ's sake!! Next thing you know the housing bubble will keep growing!!

[savethehumans]

Thank you, folks! I've printed out pages 1-2. Want to have a paper record that some of us knew better than to buy what TPTB and the Press have told us post-Rita.

TPTB: "It could've been a lot worse." (Most things can, dude.)

Someone Who Lives In Vermilion Parish, LA: "We've never had this much water, we've just never seen it."

Which one do YOU believe? Yeah, me, too.

[ChumpusRex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') just dont get it. If their really IS a major supply shortage, and if they do not raise prices to create enough demand destruction to make demand = to supply, then wont we just plain sell out of gas?

[OilsNotWell]

Here's a bit more detail on what I mentioned earlier. They're scrubbing out 'dirty' tankers to carry 'clean' products...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'K')atrina Ignites Market For Clean Tankers
26 September 2005
Petroleum Intelligence Weekly

The Atlantic Basin clean tanker market is booming in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Since the storm struck the Gulf of Mexico at the end of August, spot charter rates for product tankers to the US have soared by nearly 50% to $32,000 per day as additional gasoline supplies pour in from overseas to alleviate US shortages. Some 80 additional vessels are being sought to move clean products to the US this month. And the rates are so attractive that dirty crude and fuel oil carrying vessels are being scrubbed so they can be pressed into service to haul clean products. Rates for a medium-range tanker carrying 333,000 barrels of products from Rotterdam to New York eased off in the spot market to World scale (WS) 385 ($3.25 per barrel) last week after peaking at WS 465 ($3.90/bbl) just a week after Katrina. Just before Katrina, clean tankers were booked at WS 260 ($2.20/bbl).

Rates for US-bound vessels from the Caribbean were going for WS 310 ($2.30/bbl) after peaking at WS 420 ($3.15/bbl) a week earlier. Spot charter rates for short-haul crude oil tanker routes have risen only modestly, with rates for West Africa-US East Coast shipments up by just over 10%. Finland's refiner Neste Oil is among those going to the added expense of cleaning up dirty vessels to carry clean products trans-Atlantic. At the same time, several tankers that typically operate in other markets are now sailing to the Atlantic.

Not only are major oil companies -- such as BP, Royal Dutch Shell and Total -- moving European products to the US to alleviate the supply crunch, but oil trading firms are also cashing in on the wide trans-Atlantic arbitrage. Companies like Glencore and Petroval, the marketing arm of Russia's Yukos, are buying relatively cheaper European products and selling them to US customers at higher prices that more than cover added freight costs. In the past two weeks, shippers have booked some 40 US-bound tankers, up from six per week previously. Asia too is participating to a more limited fashion. Exxon Mobil's Japanese unit plans to send 140,000 bbl of gasoline blends to the US West Coast. In South America, Venezuela is sending an extra 960,000 bbl of gasoline to the US Gulf Coast this month in addition to regular flows.

With the US refining system expected to be hobbled for months and winter on the way, clean tanker rates might stay strong for an extended period. The hurricane season isn't over yet, with Hurricane Rita shutting several US Gulf refineries, on top of some 900,000 barrels per day of capacity shut due to Katrina, and much of that is expected to be out for an extended period (p3). With refinery capacity so restricted, the US is ill prepared for winter. As a direct result of the expected tightness, forward freight derivatives are up, with November contracts at WS 390 ($3.27/bbl), according to the Oslo-based International Maritime Exchange.

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilsNotWell', 'H')ere's a bit more detail on what I mentioned earlier. They're scrubbing out 'dirty' tankers to carry 'clean' products...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ompanies like Glencore and Petroval, the marketing arm of Russia's Yukos, are buying relatively cheaper European products and selling them to US customers at higher prices that more than cover added freight costs.

[shortonoil]

.

I wonder how long this transfer of foreign oil products to the US can continue before political pressure in those countries put a stop to it.

.

[JoeW]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdumars', '
')Sometimes being a doomer is a lonely existence, but with a name like DuMars (Doomarrs) I guess I was born to into it!

[Ming]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BabyPeanut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilsNotWell', 'H')ere's a bit more detail on what I mentioned earlier. They're scrubbing out 'dirty' tankers to carry 'clean' products...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ompanies like Glencore and Petroval, the marketing arm of Russia's Yukos, are buying relatively cheaper European products and selling them to US customers at higher prices that more than cover added freight costs.