[richardmmm]

There seem to be 2 schools of thought.

1.) The Peak Oil theory is that the Oil Companies and Govenrments are either lying or deluding themselves about oil reserves and that we are soon to run out or not exactly run out but use more than we can produce.

2.) The second idea is that the Oil companies with or without the Government consipire to maniulate the price of oil. Creating scares and false shortages by way of pushing up the price. That they surpress other technologies, buy up patents, ridicule other inventions etc.

Whilst it is true that there must be a certain number of barrels per day that the world can produce (even in the abiotic theory), it is also true that there is a finite number of barrels per day the world can reasonably consume, and a finite amount that people will tolerate paying.

If you think into it logically, with other technologies around that can start to replace oil and with alternatives and green energy, the Oil Companies and Governments would be taking action and Companies urgently rolling out new technologies to remain market leaders in energy (whether it be petroleum based or not.) IBM for example used to make type writers and card punching machines but quickly rolled over into microprocessors and computing once that became main stream. They used their position to remain market leaders.

If Oil is truely running out there would be no reason for Shell, BP and Exxon to be holding back. In fact they would be scrambling to beat each other to release new Solar, Wind, Hydrogen etc etc technologies or they'd soon be out of business. At the same time if Oil is truely running out then Governments would want to avoid the massive disruption and would be pushing to get new technologies happening, if for nothing else, simply for military and security purposes. If oil runs short and china rolls out a massive solar or hydrogen powered army, the US military might is going to be looking pretty feeble...........I can't see the government allowing something like that to happen.

In the second idea of manipulation, it remains of great benefit to keep people locked into buying petroleum products, whilst having them believe that supplies are limited. Firstly the price can be jacked up. Secondly cost of production is low and technology is inplace and with higher prices it is massively profitable. Finally a certain amount of power is maintained over the population by forcing them to have limited and easily controlled energy sources.

Shell recently made the announcement that it had over stated it's known reserves and made massive alterations. But who does that benefit. ? Is it proof of peak oil or market manipulation ? Shell by making that announcement which appeared to be them honestly correcting previous mistakes, infact added to the belief that oil is running in short supply. As an oil company selling oil, they would benefit from that as the prices rose.

There is an inverse logic that I don't think that peak oil theory has taken into consideration. Is it not a possibilty that the world can easily produce 150M or even 200M barrels a day for the next century or more, and that the real price of oil is no more than $10 a barrel. However inorder to milk it for all it's worth oil companies deliberately act in a coy and contrary way, inplying that they are ignoring peak oil, whilst at the same time suggesting that reserves and supplies are limited.

Would it not benefit them a great deal more to keep things on the edge, to keep people nervous about supplies, whilst crushing other technologies, knowing that thre is plenty of oil.

It makes no sense to crush technologies if oil is running scarce, since you are simply giving your competitors a head start. How can different companies trust each other to keep alternatives underwraps, if oil is running short and they are all about to go out of business. The survival instinct would prevent this.

On the other hand if you and your competitors agree that there is such a killing to be made in oil for decades to come, you'd happily enter into an agreement to crush alternatives and create shortage and price scares because you'd all make the easiest profits.

In the 1970s oil shortages ran the price from $2-3 a barrel up to $40 a barrel and created massive scares. When the prices finally fell, suddenly $10-$20 a barrel seemed to be a more than acceptable price. Even though it was as much as 10 times the old price. The Oil coming mainly from the same wellheads generated a vastly increased profit.

Today we find oil has gone from $15-$20 upto $70. So if it falls back to $40-$50 there will be a huge sigh of relief. Yet the oil coming from the same wellheads as it was 3 years ago, is again making 3-4 times the amount of profits.

It certainly makes more financial sense for oil companies to be promoting this shortage crisis for all it is worth, the government turns a blind eye raking in tax dollars and election campaign contributions.

On the otherhand if oil is truely becoming unsustainable as an energy source of the future, there is going to be massive competition to roll out new technology. Already people are pouring money into hydrogen ideas and others............

.............however you dump the price of oil back to $35 and all those investments in alternatives suddenly go up in smoke.

you create a crisis, drive up the price, rake in record profits, create huge interest in alternatives, then you dump the price back to level where people breath a sigh of relief, but where you still make double the old price and pull in a fortune, whilst other energy startups all go out of business.

It seems a lot more logical to me than denial or corverup of limited and failing reserves. Human nature and capitalism prevents such benal behviour.

[Ancien_Opus]

The US government is too foobar'd to orchestrate such a plot. The soulless oil companies are about profit, not plots, if there's any money to made in the alternatives then the oil companies are there. There's an old saying in the oil business that if the devil had oil we'd have to sit down and cut a deal with him. Hey if the country we're operating in doesn't have any enviromental laws, well that's their problem, you know we have to maximize shareholder value.

Denial and obfuscation are the standard tools in the politicians arsenal. The pain to their political backers is too great so delay and obfuscate the data around global warming. Peak oil, well afterall not in our lifetimes, we'll think of something. No need to be an alarmist. Simply put, the standard politician can only see a horizon out to the next election.

Unfortunately things can go horribly wrong and sometimes it takes a tragedy to get their attention. Such a tragedy has occurred and the conscequences will make themselves felt for a very long time.

As far as oil goes it's the easy waygiving way to the hard way. C'est la vie.

Regards,

[pogoliamo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'y')ou create a crisis, drive up the price, rake in record profits, create huge interest in alternatives, then you dump the price back to level where people breath a sigh of relief, but where you still make double the old price and pull in a fortune, whilst other energy startups all go out of business.

[bbadwolf]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', 'I')f you think into it logically, with other technologies around that can start to replace oil and with alternatives and green energy, the Oil Companies and Governments would be taking action and Companies urgently rolling out new technologies to remain market leaders in energy (whether it be petroleum based or not.)

[Gary]

Massive manipulation is occuring, but I think it has little to do with whether or not "peak oil" is imminent. The corporate/corporatist model seems to be to externalise costs and maximise profits -- but no longer for the corporation or corporatist syndicate.

The ultimate nihilism is expressed by the "wreck it and run" paradigm of management. The current administration is doing a great job of "wreck it and run" just as many top corporate managers are destroying companies while extracting maximum immediate payoff for themselves.

It does not matter whether "peak oil" is near or ever will be near to those who dominate our corporatist (fascist) leadership. All that matters is that one can use "peak oil" as a manipulative tool.

I am sure that there are also some political and corporate leaders who just slog through the day trying to gain or hold wealth or power while keeping some sort of integrity, but my sense is that integrity is long gone.

We are riding in a car at about 85 mph. About half a mile ahead is an overturned gasoline tanker leaking fuel. The people in charge in the front seat are distracted, talking on cell phones and trying to entertain the masses in the back by working the fancy DVD player. They are also arguing about who should be driving and when to make a potty-stop.

Without attentive driving we are in for a bit of a crash. How bad will it be? No one can say. Will anyone survive? Good question. Is there a for-sure safe place? Not in the car we are riding in. It does not help at all that one of the fascists up front is smoking a huge, smelly cigar as we approach the over turned tanker.....ah, well....

I myself pedal a tricycle right through my own despair every day. It seems to help me feel better about the reality of "peak oil" and about the use of various perceptions of peak oil to seduce and manipulate the masses into docile, mediocre, freeway-bound blobs.

[richardmmm]

http://www.hermes-press.com/oil_looting.htm

here are some interesting figures.............


I think there are viable alternatives. Economies of scale and infrastructure are simply a question of consumer uptake. 20 years ago the computer I am using would have cost more than a million dollars and would have needed an entire office building to house it. If the computer industry behaved like the Oil companies then we'd still be using type writers and punch cards, though I suspect that the same thing is happening with technology to a certain extent, they can't hold it back that much because they all compete so voraciously. It is seen as an expanding resource rather than a declining one. In a few short years the internet went from something available only to universites, military and hackers to being a vast high speed network. DSL connection in Egypt, India etc. not a problem..... infrastructure and viability is simply a question of making the product available and creating demand for it, rather than strangling it out of the market. From 1985, 20 years ago, to today, we basically have millions of people all hooked up over a high speed network that in theory should cost thousands of dollars per day for each individual to connect to, whilst using computers that in theory should cost at least a million bucks a piece and occupy an entire building..........and not just in the first world. India, China even Egypt one of the poorest countries is stuffed with computers and broadband. Not bad for technology that even 15 years ago was totally unviable, extremely cumbersome, not really scalable and outrageously expensive.

A friend of mine did a PHD and designed a petrol engine made of ceramics instead of metal. It did 250mpg. Some people in dark suits paid him a visit with a check for $25M and gave him two alternatives. Let's just say the second one wasn't a viable option so he took the check. Because he did the research at a university people were able to monitor it. He regretted not doing the research privately, because he could have floated it before the pressure was applied.

Another friend of mine is the great great grand daughter of one of the scientists that first refined gasoiline. He left behind all sorts of research papers and work that provided ways of using aditives to literally water down the gasoline at least 50/50. So this combined with the engines that are available give you 500mpg. She was doing a chemitry degree at the time and she tried to release these things, have them investigated in the university, talk to the professors about it, no one had bothered with them previously because they were unpublished research and gasoline was cheap. People broke into her house, she had all kinds of threats and finally she just backed off.

If Oil was really running short, these things would be rolled out in an instant, to perpetuate the oil situation, before other alternatives creep in. The oil companies have certainly surpressed alternatives many patents like high capactiy batteries, super power low light solar, cold fusion and hydrogen / solid fuels, have all been taken off the market. There are definitely engines that run on aluminium which is one of the most common elements on the planet. Expensive to refine, but none the less very available. You could just as easily be fueling up with a bar of aluminum than 10 gallons of gas.

If the supplies of Oil are really running scarce then it would be in their interests to roll out new and more efficient gasoline technologies to keep oil viable. But they don't, they keep it ticking just enough to keep people happy and the price high. Governments certainly think only of the next election, which is the flaw in the system. Corporations however are in it for the long run. Shell, BP, Exxon etc. have been going for 100+ years in one form or another.

They did the same thing with coal in the 1800s. There were constant scares, fears and shortages. Yet today we have more coal than we know what to do with. Infact there are technologies that can convert coal into gasoline, so really the chances of running out of liquid hydrocarbons are pretty much zero.

Really I can only discount peak oil as part of the same sham of keeping people scared and forcing the prices higher and higher. The hybrid is basically a sham. Gasoline efficiency hasn't improved much in 20 years.

I suspect that there might be a burst of more efficent engines coming out soon after the recent crisies. But really if Oil was actually in short supply, rather than production being manipulated to be slightly less than demand, to create a false sense of shortage, then the oil companies would be doing something to migrate the peak and lower the useage..................after all why sell 10M barrels for $10 when you can just sell 3M for $35 ???

The oil market has always been very volatile with price and I suspect that this is simply a way of keeping smaller interests and alternatives constantly struggling. The point I was trying to bring out is that you run the price high, you get everyone interested in exploration and alternatives. Then you slam the price down, right when no one expects it and all the new little guys go out of business. You buy up the new oil finds and alternatives and you are off again for another 20-30 years.

If oil collapses back to $30-$35, suddenly biodiesel, solar, hyrdogen, etc etc all fly out of the window, the companies pack up, investors get burned and everyone turns back again to good old oil.

Sure there is a grab it and run ethos, but corporations have things planned out for 20-30 years at a time. Don't think that everyone is just in it for profits. There is also the maintainence of power and influence. Corporations do plot and hatch schemes to keep competitors out. That is exactly what executives get paid huge salaries to do all day..........to the point where they simply dump whatever politician suits them into power.

BMW has roadtested a hydrogen powered 7 series, which has some slight modifications to the injectors. In 2007 they are releasing a production model that takes both hydrogen and gasoline. You can bet that by 2007 oil is real cheap again and there's no need for it. BMW have many alternative engines and designs and so do the Japanese, but they are in the hands of the oil strangle hold. As soon as oil becomes cheap again all these great new ideas vanish as unviable.

After 20 years of cheap oil, all the alternatives that people came up with in the 60s and 70s have been burried. But enough time has passed to make people inquisitive again. Run the price of oil really high, get everyone out of the wood work. Dump oil, burry the new ideas, burn the investors etc etc. In 2030 we'll be having the same peak oil crisis whilst anti gravity engines and flying solar powered cars etc etc all get brought out of the wood work, oil shortages, $200 a barrel, oil is scarce, then woof oil price collapse............all burried again for another 25-30 years.

It's very interesting to see how suddenly when there is a crisis and oil has reached to unsustainable level that suddenly everyone has supply. It's all there capped off and waiting to be tapped. The Saudis don't keep the numbers secret because they are running low, they keep them secret because if we new they had lakes of oil, we'd be falling about laughing and paying them 50cents a barrel not $50.

Peak Oil in the US proves the theory right that supplies are declining right ?

But how easy is it to decrease local production in favor of overseas production for a while ?? It's all the same companies pumping the shit out, from Venezeula to Saudi Arabia, it's all the same. You make those countries rich for a few decades, whilst keeping local supplies looking like they are declining. Then you ramp it up again locally and cut pumping overseas, causing economic chaos in those countries, so you can renegoitate the royalties and contracts............

I think there are much more devicisive games going on than anyone realises......

[seldom_seen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', 'O')n the otherhand if oil is truely becoming unsustainable as an energy source of the future, there is going to be massive competition to roll out new technology.

[richardmmm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', 'O')n the otherhand if oil is truely becoming unsustainable as an energy source of the future, there is going to be massive competition to roll out new technology.

[bbadwolf]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', '
')if supplies are limited it would be in their best interests to roll out super fuel efficient vehicles,

skip..

it's funny too how suddenly kuwait, canada, saudi etc etc all have this extra capactiy to ship to the US, now prices are massively high, whereas 3 months ago, there were no spare reserves to be had.

skip...

they do the same thing with crops......... pump up the prices, make huge profits in the first world, then dump the excess off in africa and places, which cripples the farmers there..

why not with oil..........

[Gary]

I am acquanted with a man who has been working on a doctorate in the history of science and technology. He also is well aware that the technology we use -- particularly transportation technology -- is very poor. Oversimplified version: we use the cars we do because some people realised that if we burned gas to get around they could sell more of it. Standard Oil, General Motors, Firestone (ot Goodyear?) and many other folks have used coercion and have broken the law to make sure we drove the kinds of cars we do.

Now large corporations no longer need to break the law so much, because industries lobby the lawmakers to change the laws to suit them. Not only that, but our imaginations are bound by the technology that appears to most of us as God-given. I just turned 47, and I only remember life within which the car was as essential as a place to live -- perhaps more essential.

The manipulation is not so much "cloak and dagger" -- although it is important to recognise that it sometimes is overtly violent and coercive. The manipulation we experience has more to do with propaganda (see "Adbusters" online or in the store for a "journal of the mental environment") and with use of the market and government to shape our expectations and our sense of what is normal than it does with anything else.

We need to develop our own ideas about the best way to live, to get around, and to shape our lives. This is true no matter if "peak oil" is a manipulative ruse or a reality. My guess is that "peak oil" is a reality that is being used to manipulate people.

Vice President Henry Wallace (FDR's middle VP) once published an article in the NYT that stated that fascism would next rear its ugly head in the USA, and that control here woud be achieved more through "poisoning the stream of information" than through overt violence. He also stated that fascists woulf play upon the fears and prejudices of people in order to maintain control. Sounds like the USA "homeland" to me.

Maybe we should say: "peak oil: reality and massive manipulation." We need to take over the oilfields with our military so that those oilfields -- which do not belong to us, oddly enough -- do not fall into the hands of "terrorists." Do you like to put gas in your car? Then you will have to accept endless war for resources, endless concentration of political and economic power in the hands of a few, and endless erosion of the US Constitution, which is mostly unused anyway, and lately abused.

[bbadwolf]

Gary:

You make some very good points and it describes our "system". Said system in inherently rotten. And it has/had to be this way I suspect. We are essentially tribal animals, our nature/psychology is well adapted for that lifestyle. We grew into a global lifestyle much too abruptly to adapt and the farther we progress the worse off we are, in fact.

Sure it looks better on the surface, we have more stuff. But until the PEOPLE running corporations develop inherent tendencies toward social responsibility (like neo-cons developing liberalism), corporations will continue rape the world for profit. Similar for government, our fundamental competitiveness results in PEOPLE bettering their own lives at the expense of others'. Large scale government will continue to fail until humanity changes at the genetic level in a way that enhances our ability to co-operate.

Note that at the level of individuals, we often kill each other. It isn't really that surprising that at the level of society (composed of individuals) we often ... kill each other. We can't 'learn' our way out of this. Too much of what we learn fails to be passed on to future generations. What's in our genes persists across the millenia. A technological society might work if we evolved into it over millions of years. Our abruptly technical society was doomed from the start. We are the unlucky generation that will see the change back to a simpler form. The simpler form will be a good thing. The change, however, may be a little rough.

-bbad

[Denny]

The gernal public perception is that the big "brand name" integrated oil companies have the production end sown up. but, that is simply not true. There is a whole tier of producers which are not common names but which actually do s huge amount of the grunge work of exploring and pumping out the oil around the globe.

The numbers of these compaines ensure that the wholesale crude oil, and natural gas markets, are fair playing fields in the classic Adman Smith context of the famous "invisiible hand".

It would surprise some to learn that names like Encana, Talisman and Candian Natural Resources rival Gernal Motors in terms of capitalization.

So, I cannot subscribe to the theory that the price is is fixed.

[richardmmm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', 'T')he gernal public perception is that the big "brand name" integrated oil companies have the production end sown up. but, that is simply not true. There is a whole tier of producers which are not common names but which actually do s huge amount of the grunge work of exploring and pumping out the oil around the globe.

The numbers of these compaines ensure that the wholesale crude oil, and natural gas markets, are fair playing fields in the classic Adman Smith context of the famous "invisiible hand".

It would surprise some to learn that names like Encana, Talisman and Candian Natural Resources rival Gernal Motors in terms of capitalization.

So, I cannot subscribe to the theory that the price is is fixed.

[ohanian]

A friend of a friend of a friend of mine did a PHD and designed a petrol
engine made of unobtainium instead of metal. It did 1500mpg.
Some people in dark suits paid him a visit with a check for $250M and gave
him two alternatives. Let's just say the second one wasn't a viable option so
he took the check. Because he did the research at a university people were
able to monitor it. He regretted not doing the research privately, because he
could have floated it before the pressure was applied.

The last I have heard, he applying to migrate to China, where he
would be working on zero-point free energy systems.

YEAH RIGHT!!!

[Gary]

OK, true story, much different.

A pal of mine builds bikes and trikes - HPVs (human powered vehicles).

He lately built a sweet short-wheeel-based recumbent bike out of titanium. Super lightweight, like a feather. Handles like a dream.

No visits from guys in dark suits. No death threats. No offers of large sums of cash.

Sad but true. However, he really enjoys riding the bike, and also showing it off to those who appreciate finely made transportation.

The Minnesota HPV Club may even have a picture or two posted on their website.

I think that peak oil is real and that some folks use peak oil as a way to manipulate others. There is no better way to push our buttons than to present a scenario which "pulls the rug out" from under people.

Peak oil may very well "pull the rug out from under" our culture and economy. It is likley that we will not have social security, medicare, medicaid, or most of the fat pensions or 401ks within 10 years or so. All of the economic expectations built over the past 50 years are likely to prove to be a house of cards. Our hyper-materialism will prove to be a shallow spiritual mooring. We've all been eating, drinking, and soaking in cheap energy.

It will be harder to weld a titanium recumbent bike, no?

The current use of peak oil to manipulate people goes like this: "We need to occupy the oil fields, or else the terrorists will own them and we won't have any oil. We need to destroy ANWR or else we'll run out of oil, but if we drill the hell out of Alaska everything will be Okee-dokeee. No need to worry citizens, just keep moving along, just stay compliant. By the way, we'll be asking you to check your constitutional rights at the door to the future. Should you refuse to do so, we reserve the right to detain you at the torture facility of our choice." And so forth and so on.

The killers in high places pray loud lies....

[Jdelagado]

This is a great posting....


Out of the couple hundred that I have read, this is probably 1 of 10 that were really good and meaningful.

The rest were the results of the "diminishing returns of technology".

Thanks for putting it up.

jdelagado

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', 'I') don't think there has been a genuine war, over a real dispute since about 1890 it's all been orchestrated oil wars, with false evidence and media frenzie.

[knoppix2004]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', 'T')here seem to be 2 schools of thought.

[Lehyina]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eople are basically stupid. Let me re-phrase that ... most of the people on this planet are mind-blowingly, stupefyingly, DUMB. They have the IQ of a potato and they plan on average, about 5 to 10 minutes into the future. Maybe that's the reason we find ourselves in such a sticky wicket, when we had every warning in the world, from Hubbard, to Meadows, to Carter, to Simmons, for more than 5 decades, that we might want to wake up and change things.

Even if there were a conspiracy among dozens or hudreds, it is dwarfed by the incomprehensible stupidity of billions.

[JustinFrankl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lehyina', 'I') disagree that everyone is stupid but what is more mind-blowing to me is that some individual humans are incredibly clever and yet humans manage to be so stupid COLLECTIVELY. How else is it that modern civilisation can be driven by a crusade for constant economic growth in a finite world?