[JustinFrankl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lehyina', 'T')his fixation about the peak oil date and whether its 1, 5 or 10 years away just obscures the bigger picture.

[Lehyina]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustinFrankl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lehyina', 'T')his fixation about the peak oil date and whether its 1, 5 or 10 years away just obscures the bigger picture.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lehyina', 'W')hat I meant by 'obscures the bigger picture' is that the anti-peak oil brigade have seized on earlier erroneous calls for the peak oil date as a reason for rejecting the notion of peak oil completely (the 'cry wolf' syndrome). This is unfortunate because it reduces awareness whereas raising awareness potentially has some benefit.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lehyina', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy don't you both go to the source instead of wringing your hands over this question? A cursory glance of the ASPO newsletter shows that it inlcudes both deepwater and NGL in its depletion profile estimates.

[peripato]

Anyway Campbell credentials are impeccable so why should I discount his forecast over and above anyone elses? What are your qualifications that you can so easily dismiss ASPO's depletion profile? ASPO's claims seems reasonable and what strikes me as most interesting is how closely the credible forecasts are drawing together regardless of the methodolgy used to reach their conclusions. Be it 2007 or 2012 as peak date this is but a blink in time considering the enormity of the issue that confronts us.

[Lehyina]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', 'A')nyway Campbell credentials are impeccable so why should I discount his forecast over and above anyone elses? What are your qualifications that you can so easily dismiss ASPO's depletion profile? ASPO's claims seems reasonable and what strikes me as most interesting is how closely the credible forecasts are drawing together regardless of the methodolgy used to reach their conclusions. Be it 2007 or 2012 as peak date this is but a blink in time considering the enormity of the issue that confronts us.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lehyina', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', 'A')nyway Campbell credentials are impeccable so why should I discount his forecast over and above anyone elses? What are your qualifications that you can so easily dismiss ASPO's depletion profile? ASPO's claims seems reasonable and what strikes me as most interesting is how closely the credible forecasts are drawing together regardless of the methodolgy used to reach their conclusions. Be it 2007 or 2012 as peak date this is but a blink in time considering the enormity of the issue that confronts us.

[RdSnt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') suppose I have a different definition of Peak oil. I believe it is already here. We haven't had a MAJOR oil discovery in 3 yrs...that tell me we are already on the downward slope of the bell curve. Who cares about production? That is KNOWN oil - look around - there aren't alot of brand NEW sites being discovered - only old sites with more oil than expected. To me, PO is about the amount of oil - not the amount produced.

[backstop]

A critical aspect of the date of Peak which neither ASPO nor any equally diligent research organization can compute is that of the random impact.

The sources of such may be intentional (attacks on supply infrastructure)

or economic (a severe recession impacting demand, with causes ranging from fuel price to chicken flu)

or climatic (an extreme event impacting both supply &/or demand).

In practice, such impacts tend not only to overlap but also compound eachother's effects.

In this light, any forecast of an actual date looks rather brave, if not downright foolhardy. Given that the outcome of the Peak is of huge import, those forecasts must of course be made. Those who accuse the scientists of crying wolf merely demonstrate their own scientific illiteracy or, in some cases, their corrupt aim of profiteering just as long as possible, regardless of obstructing vital preparations.

I have to admit that for me hypothesizing the date of peak is thus of far less relevance than developing the selection criteria to be applied to options for the mitigation of peak oil's destabilization of society.

regards,

Backstop

[Lehyina]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '
')Forgive me but isn't this topic discussing how many angels can dance on the head of a pin (when the peak date will arrive)? If this is not the subject of the forum could you please enlighten me? If I have misinterpreted the topic of this forum or your position on it then please accept my apologies.

[Lehyina]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', '
')I have to admit that for me hypothesizing the date of peak is thus of far less relevance than developing the selection criteria to be applied to options for the mitigation of peak oil's destabilization of society.

[mermaid]

if it is 5 or 10 years away, ok, we sit and wait till it happens....

the thing is, will anyone be honest about it? will world's oil bosses say that the Peak is there? Or will it be silent?
Will Shell say to us that the oil and gas is at it's highest Peak?
the anti-peakers are too powerful at this moment and they are a lobby in the whole world telling it has several reasons that prices are so high, but will they tell when the Peak is there? just curious....

[aldente]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mermaid', '
')the thing is, will anyone be honest about it? will world's oil bosses say that the Peak is there? Or will it be silent?

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

Forgive me but isn't this topic discussing how many angels can dance on the head of a pin (when the peak date will arrive)? If this is not the subject of the forum could you please enlighten me? If I have misinterpreted the topic of this forum or your position on it then please accept my apologies.[/quote]


No, the topic clearly says peak is 5-10 years away, which you correctly called bullshit on.

You don't need to apologize to anyone.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hunderhorse is not a major find and it's only meaningful if they can manage to keep the rig afloat. I don't know Buzzard.
Shaybah is extremely complex geology with poor prospects for intense extraction like Gawar. It already has a water cut, difficult gas capping and is very isolated.
Caspian oil is heavy with very high sulphur. And take a look at your own references, Caspian peaks in 2010 and starts it's decline 5 years later. Compare that to Gawar, compare that even to the North Sea. A five year production run, if everything goes according to their plans is almost meaningless and there's a good likelihood the companies won't get a positive return on their investments in that short a time.

[Antimatter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'K')ashagan which is anywhere from 30-40 billion barrels

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')HS puts Kashagan at 13Gb...is your figure oil in place? Also Buzzard the figures I've seen say 180-190kb/d and 400-500mb recoverable...unless this has been upgraded 300kb/d would drain it very quickly.

[Taskforce_Unity]

I am almost finished of taking in the comments on the method i used so i asked the oil drummers to post a message containing what i am going to change and what i would like to change but don't yet know how.

Here are my thoughts so far on my method:

The Koppelaar Oil Model:

Besides textual, layout and other changes I have taken a look at how to change the method itself thanks to your comments. So far I have come up with these things and I would like to know what you critical analysts think of it and If you have any other great ideas:

Adding depletion:

• There was a discussion if the depletion type II added as Depletion type III would be correct. I don’t have any data on the past depletion in the form of Type II depletion and I don’t have the time to collect it. To counter the effects of adding new projects on the extrapolated decline I will add a conservative increasing decline rate over time. This will represent the fact that fewer discoveries will be made, more fields will go into depletion and the curve starts accelerating when an oil country nears the end of its life. Because I do not have any data I intend to be conservative on this part.

• There was the issue with the North Sea and depletion, I made a large error there and some were wondering If it makes my prediction credible or not (there may be more errors). I am dealing with the issue at the moment (doing a lot of research on the North Sea and making a shorter article) and I intend to correct this error. As far as I know this was the only big error I made on depletion rates.

I would like to add 6 stream of future production instead of 3
• Future Discoveries

• Already discovered fields not yet in production (existing reserve base)

• Reserve additions/EOR, a more worked out stream of production, I intend to see if I can come up with a better way of adding reserve additions. As of today I don’t really know how to add probable and possible reserve additions. This is because I do not have a good data source which separates reserve additions from discoveries and additions from the probable and possible reserve base. If someone has anymore data on it I would be grateful. For the moment I am basing this stream of production on past recovery rate increase guesstimates from Mr. Lynch

• Unconventional oil as a separate stream, that means tar sands, orimulsion (Venezuelan Orinoco belt extra heavy crude) and possibly shale oil depending on what I can learn/find about it.

I would like to add a disruption scenario based on data gathered from the disruptions in the years 2004 and 2005 incorporated into a table with the amount of disruptions and project delays in a given year, the type of disruption and the timetable involved. This would then be extrapolated in a rational way to see how it influences oil production on overall. I would also like to note that it sometimes happen that projects are ready earlier (we saw this with the Kizomba B project this year) and that lays!


Necessary additions I really don’t know how to incorporate yet but maybe someone has a brilliant idea or more knowledge on these topics.

• How to figure in the refinery capacity, worker and material shortage which are all three likely to occur. I would really like to add this but I lack knowledge on it’s timeframe and the likely impacts.

• How to structurally figure in the different types of liquids. The biggest difference on all the different types (light crude, tar sands, gas condensates etc.) is mainly the energy aspect (EROI). This only influences the demand for oil though (more oil or gas or coal) is needed to produce the same amount when the EROI is lower. The next difference I assume is on how these products are refined and what you can use them for. I don’t have a clear picture if I we can make the same derivates from NGL (gas condensates) as we can do from normal oil.

• A possible demand outlook, I really find it hard to make a demand outlook. When will demand start to slow down because of high oil prices? When will a major recession take place (especially giving the precarious state of the American economy) which will influence oil production big time by artificially lowering oil production? If this does not happen I could make a quite likely progression of demand I think. This would be based on historic trends, newly arising trends and a guesstimate of the decrease of EROI over time which influences demand. The question therefore is will the economy melt down in the coming years (I think this is very likely given the state of demand/supply and any disruption causing major breakdowns)

Thanks in advance, yours truly and that sort of stuff,

Rembrandt Koppelaar, Foundation Peak Oil Netherlands