[KevO]

at least according to an NL study
http://www.peakoil.nl/images/oil_produc ... 5-2040.pdf
and 10 years gives us a chance to get Nuclear on line so we might be saved (again) after all
plus the North Sea is doing
a lot better than expected and with the oil shales etc and the reinvestment in coal, things are looking up. I bet even Matt and Heinberg and Kunstler probably realise that they overcooked things now.
See , what were we all so concerned for?

[Antimatter]

Jean Laherrere also reckons peak liquids is in 2015. Deffeyes is to my knowledge the only expert calling for a peak right now, though ASPO's liquids peak is 2007/8.

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Antimatter', 'J')ean Laherrere also reckons peak liquids is in 2015. Deffeyes is to my knowledge the only expert calling for a peak right now, though ASPO's liquids peak is 2007/8.

[linlithgowoil]

cant believe aspo and deffeyes have done it again. they've cried wolf for a further time. campbell must be getting mighty tired having to fiddle with his figures all the time as he sees oil production march upwards at over 2% a year, year on year.

still, i think peak will likely come before 2010. that report assumes there will be zero problems, no political prpblems, no hurricanes, and all the required investment etc. things never go 100% smooth like that, so if they are saying around 2010, then its probably safe to say peak may be end 2008 as the mega project study seemed to suggest.

either way, 5 years is not a lot of time, but it gives me a little bit more time to prepare i suppose, and my little boys will be a fair bit older by then which is a very good thing. we might even be almost out of debt assuming i have a job still

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'a')t least according to an NL study
http://www.peakoil.nl/images/oil_produc ... 5-2040.pdf
and 10 years gives us a chance to get Nuclear on line so we might be saved (again) after all
plus the North Sea is doing
a lot better than expected and with the oil shales etc and the reinvestment in coal, things are looking up. I bet even Matt and Heinberg and Kunstler probably realise that they overcooked things now.
See , what were we all so concerned for?

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '
')
Why should we have any hope of our government responding to the "long emergency" with any more effectiveness than it did to the "short emergency" that was the hurricane?

I don't think anybody - even people as cynical as me! - would have anticipated such a horribly piss-poor response to Katrina.

Best,

Matt

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Antimatter', 'J')ean Laherrere also reckons peak liquids is in 2015. Deffeyes is to my knowledge the only expert calling for a peak right now, though ASPO's liquids peak is 2007/8.

[nero]

Has anyone else been noticing the parallels between Katrina and Peak Oil.

Both events had been long predicted. When couldn't be exactly known, but it was noly a matter of time.

Experts said we were critically unprepared for both events.

The government decided to persue the same policy for both events. They ignored it.

Let's just hope that the government response to peak oil is better than it was for the hurricane.

[FoxV]

here's my biggest problem with Peak oil models

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')C) Assumptions

There will be no material, pipeline, shipping or manpower restrictions to bring any oil production to the market...

There are no refinery restrictions to bring the new oil supply to the market...

There are no political, economical or natural events that take oil production offline...

[tsakach]

Hmmm. This report does not seem to include the effect of Katrina on production.

The report shows a decline of only 69,000 bpd for the US between Q1 2005 and year end 2005. At the present time the IEA shows a stock draw totaling almost 2 m/bpd to make up for lost production resulting from Katrina.

Between 2004 and year end 2005, the increase in world production shown is 2,098,000 bpd. Adding this up, we have an increase of only 168,000 bbd until production is brought back online in the gulf.

IEA details Katrina oil stock effort

[Ancien_Opus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')oxv Wrote: nope, I don't think its time to break out the bubbley just yet, as a matter of fact I think its time to start "battening down the hatches" because the storm has started

[trendal]

plus the North Sea is doing
a lot better than expected

Maybe they've just managed to squeze a few more bpd out of the wells? If they're already in decline, that probably just means an even steeper cliff in the future.

[CARVER]

This report is made by Taskforce_Unity and he has started the discussion here: http://peakoil.com/fortopic11688.html

[seb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'a')t least according to an NL study
http://www.peakoil.nl/images/oil_produc ... 5-2040.pdf
and 10 years gives us a chance to get Nuclear on line so we might be saved (again) after all
plus the North Sea is doing
a lot better than expected and with the oil shales etc and the reinvestment in coal, things are looking up. I bet even Matt and Heinberg and Kunstler probably realise that they overcooked things now.
See , what were we all so concerned for?

[Taskforce_Unity]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', '
')still, i think peak will likely come before 2010. that report assumes there will be zero problems, no political prpblems, no hurricanes, and all the required investment etc. things never go 100% smooth like that, so if they are saying around 2010, then its probably safe to say peak may be end 2008 as the mega project study seemed to suggest.

[Falconoffury]

I trust ASPO the most because they break each type of oil into sections. Conventional oil has been in decline for a few years already. Combined oil should peak in around 2 years. All oil and gas combined will peak in about 2010. I don't see how we can last past 2010.

Another point to consider is how oil depletion affects the economy. During August this year, world oil demand went above production. Asia and Indonesia are the first to feel this crunch. They are already waiting in lines for gasoline. Europe and the Americas could start feeling the crunch early next year, still years before peak. Exponential growth is our downfall, and it will only take 2 more years at the most before oil depletion is felt across the world.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't see how we can last past 2010

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')ho are you going to believe? An Aramco official who is probably one of 10,000 Saudi Royal Family members (busy trying to placate 20,000,000 poor, unemployed, testosterone-ridden Saudi teens--the average age there is about 25.) Or an intelligent objective US investment banker with no particular agenda?

Simmons' facts are as hard as anybody elses.

[Lehyina]

Something which I think is being slightly overlooked here is the sensitivity of world demand/consumption projections. Whatever the liquids production capacity projection and its peak is, the real crunch comes about when supply becomes permanently less than demand. By way of example lets assume for a moment that this particular production capacity forecast is perfect and has no inherent uncertainty.
Now if world average demand growth is a constant 2% per annum from here onwards the supply demand gap will be permanent as from 2010 onwards. If however world average demand growth is only 1% per annum from here onwards the permanent supply demand gap will not occur until 2016 onwards - so this one factor alone (i.e. demand growth assumption) gives an uncertainty range of 6 years for the point at which the supply demand gap becomes permanent. By not giving sufficient attention to this kind of uncertainty peakoilers give a misleading idea about the supposed accuracy of projections and have thereby expose themselves to the 'crying wolf' criticism. Personally, whether the critical year is 2005, 2010, 2015 or even 2030, its still too short a time when I consider what kind of world and society my grandchildren are going to inherit.