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THE Blackouts/Brownouts Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Blackout in Los Angeles

Unread postby knoppix2004 » Mon 12 Sep 2005, 23:55:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mgibbons19', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mgibbons19', 'O')H MY GOD THE PEAK IS HERE SOCIETY IS FAILING WHERE'S MY GOLD?!!?

Mines next to my gun. You?

Close at hand don't worry.
And I'm not picking on you. Just the board in general. Being aware of this stuff makes EVERY EVENT seem like THE EVENT even though we all know it could go slow or fast, now or ten years from now. One does get a little nervous when this Monday starts with Kunstler, Simmons, the Mogambo,3.00 fuel, reports of natgas doubling this winter, only to have blackouts in LA. But only Peakers are going to notice all of that in one day.

Have to agree with you. I think some peak oiler are really lot to be desire, but we can have fun - now and then :)
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Re: Blackout in Los Angeles

Unread postby knoppix2004 » Tue 13 Sep 2005, 00:05:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'I')f a place like Los Angeles was without power for more than 72 hours, you want to take the risk that there wont' be roaming rape gangs looking to make a little girl out of you?
Matt

I'm wondering... Why would anyone wanna rape anyone, when they are at the verg of starvation? I mean shouldn't they be looting food, clothes, medice in New Orleans? C'mon...
And if they were interested in sex - Why would they wanna fuck plump little man or 400 pound woman? Don't believe anything media tell you.
Maybe being handsome is not so safe today :P
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Re: Blackout in Los Angeles

Unread postby Chaparral » Tue 13 Sep 2005, 00:54:32

ROTFLMAO! I figured folks would be jumpy. I was driving back from one of my buildings in San Pedro on Gaffey St which runs right past the refinery. Several traffic lights were out but MAN, THOSE FLARES WERE 50 FEET HIGH! Every stack on both Wilmington refineries shot up 40 to 50 foot long flares with thick black smoke. The last time they all flared that bad was when we had the Northridge quake. KNX 1070 sputtered off the air and I was just a teensy-weensy freaked out myself. I unplugged the computer expecting that if power went off, there might be a surge when it went back on. The LAPD went on tactical alert but traffic in my area was normal enough.

That was my entertainment for the day. No locking & no loading, no gunning down hordes of rampaging mutant zombie bikers trying to attack my squash and tomato plants :lol:
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Re: Intermittent or permanent loss of utilities

Unread postby Googolplex » Tue 13 Sep 2005, 03:45:34

While intermitant seems more then likly, I don't anticipate perminant loss. What will happen is that utilities will get more expensive, possibly much more, to the point where alternatives become better choices.
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Re: Intermittent or permanent loss of utilities

Unread postby Pops » Tue 13 Sep 2005, 10:28:12

Most generation around here is coal-fired so the price may increase but should continue for a while. I have a small generator for outages and lots of hand tools.

Drilled well and rebuildable windmill, intermittent creek (6-8 mos/yr most years), 1 pond (the old folks say this is the first time it’s been so low), plans for another pond, roof-water and possibly a cistern.

Septic.

Wood heat - maybe 1-2ac standing trees (want a small wood cook stove when we remodel this fall too Andy :) )

Edit to add: 500 gal propane tank for cooking, hot water and some use of the furnace to circulate wood heat – used maybe 100 gal in the last 7 months – maybe 200-250 over winter. Cut that in half at least in a crimp.
Last edited by Pops on Tue 13 Sep 2005, 11:42:16, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Blackout in Los Angeles

Unread postby CarlinsDarlin » Tue 13 Sep 2005, 10:47:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut only Peakers are going to notice all of that in one day.

That really is an important issue. Especially when it relates to PO awareness or outreach. We do notice things that, taken individually, don't add up to much. But when looked at as a part of the bigger picture, they can scare the bejeezes out of you. Others who are not PO aware don't notice the connection between event - if there is one - or see the bigger picture.
Given the recent events in NO, my first thought was that I hoped the power came back on quickly (and thankfully it did). If/when the time comes that power outages are more frequent and/or of longer duration, we may indeed see more social unrest.
In combination with other troubles coming our way, potential grid problems could make cities even more difficult to live in. Yet another reason I'm glad I live in the boonies :). We may be in the dark if the power goes out, but at least there are fewer other people to have to worry about in the dark with me.
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Re: Intermittent or permanent loss of utilities

Unread postby IslandCrow » Tue 13 Sep 2005, 11:14:19

Heating: Wood fire in room in basement, wood burning sauna, and water heater. other wise Oil heating :cry: Should be able to survive, but would only live in part of the house. Dreaming of having some heat exchange, but that would need elec to run.

Water: There is a well, but it was barely enough so the previous owners hooked up to the town supply. Guess we could get by at a squeeze.

Elect: no backup apart from candles.

Cooking; this is electric, but at a pinch we could use any of the above wood-burning things. I dream of a nice range in the kitchen (possibly soap-stone to provide a heating resource).

Waste. There is an almost derelict outhouse that could be used (no fun in winter) Dreaming of a nice indoor composting toilet. [As I get older I do like my comforts!]

Food supply: The ferry to where we live has been known to break down...so I count that as a utility. I generally have a good stock of food on hand. having lived in a 'third-world' country with problems of supply, that is something that seems to come automatically.

Also its good to have a flask to keep hot water in - especially if electricity goes off periodically. I guess as energy gets more scarce and / or expensive, then we will see more power cuts
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Re: Intermittent or permanent loss of utilities

Unread postby MacG » Tue 13 Sep 2005, 11:19:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NeoPeasant', 'A')nyone have contingency plans for the possibility of losing some or all of: electricity, natural gas, water, or sewage service to your home?


Yeps. All bases covered for a full winter (5 months here). Food also.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NeoPeasant', 'I')ncluding the unpleasant possibility that sewage may stop flowing out of, and start flowing into your home if you are a low-lying user of a dysfunctional sewer system.


N/A High ground

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NeoPeasant', 'I')s your suburban house ready to go into a "cabin in the woods" mode?


Semi-central flat, but yes. Independent light, heat, water, food and local transport (bike) covered.
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Re: Intermittent or permanent loss of utilities

Unread postby skyemoor » Tue 13 Sep 2005, 11:53:50

My place:
- Power: Photovoltaic, grid-connected, battery backup, with VERY efficient appliances/etc
- Water: Well, to be supplemented by rainwater
- Septic: Septic field
- Heat: Passive solar, with woodstove backup
- Cooking: Propane, with woodstove and solar cooker backup

Suburban house possibilities:
- Power: Photovoltaic with serious energy efficiency mods
- Water: Rainwater capture
- Septic: Composting toilet, graywater
- Heat: Woodstove (not standard fireplace), passive solar mods, insulation/infiltration
- Cooking: Electric, with woodstove and solar cooker backup

This does not assume that other considerations of suburbia are solved, such as distance from work, limited agriculture, etc.
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Re: Intermittent or permanent loss of utilities

Unread postby Doly » Tue 13 Sep 2005, 12:05:27

Only backups I have is candles for loss of electricity and warm duvets for loss of heating.

I wonder what I will do if there is any long blackout and I can't use my computer... But I'm not expecting that sort of thing to happen anytime soon.
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Re: Blackout in Los Angeles

Unread postby Pops » Tue 13 Sep 2005, 12:18:03

It may be true that peakers can discern the forest from outline of the trees, but when you’re running full tilt downhill it won’t be the forest that causes you to trip and break you neck; it’s gonna be one little broken tree limb.
It’s sort of the Butterfly Effect of PO, watch out for the little things somewhere else that could become big things in your backyard.
For example, I saw little comment made in the MSM regarding oil and gas effects for a day or two following Katrina; it was discussed here before the hurricane hit and obviously has a bigger real impact on most than some looters sacking a Walgreen’s.
A coup in an out of the way country, a policy statement by some unknown official, some obscure report, etc. could be the straw that puts the hurt on your particular camel.
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Re: Intermittent or permanent loss of utilities

Unread postby whiteknight » Tue 13 Sep 2005, 12:49:28

Harbor Freight Tools has a solar array 36"X12" that when hooked up to a 12 VDC battery and 300 amp inverter will provide some power for critical appliances. Costs about $200, but you will need to buy the inverter and battery seperately. Probably $300 total for 300 amps 12 VDC (20-30 amps at 120 VAC) thats not bad. Call it $10 to $15 an amp for at least 5 years of usefulness. Buy a set up every couple of months and real soon you are off the grid.
Every morning a gazelle wakes up, knowing it must run faster than the lion or be killed. When a lion wakes up, it knows it must outrun the gazelle or starve. It doesn't matter whether you are a lion or gazelle, when you wake up you'd better be running.
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Re: Blackout in Los Angeles

Unread postby BabyPeanut » Tue 13 Sep 2005, 13:48:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'I')f a place like Los Angeles was without power for more than 72 hours, you want to take the risk that there wont' be roaming rape gangs looking to make a little girl out of you?

Oh, staaap!, yr turning me on with all yr dirty talk! :roll:
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Re: Intermittent or permanent loss of utilities

Unread postby skyemoor » Tue 13 Sep 2005, 14:14:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whiteknight', 'H')arbor Freight Tools has a solar array 36"X12" that when hooked up to a 12 VDC battery and 300 amp inverter will provide some power for critical appliances. Costs about $200, but you will need to buy the inverter and battery seperately. Probably $300 total for 300 amps 12 VDC (20-30 amps at 120 VAC) thats not bad.


Which solar panel are you referring to? The ones I saw there only went up to 100 watts ($799), which is close to the maximum output of most commercially available panels.

So for 300 watts [edit: deleted "amps at 12v"] (not considering losses and usually lower output) the costs would be around $2600, and that doesn't consider fusing, charger, and other balance of system items.
Last edited by skyemoor on Tue 13 Sep 2005, 19:37:54, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Blackout in Los Angeles

Unread postby knoppix2004 » Tue 13 Sep 2005, 14:27:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BabyPeanut', 'O')h, staaap!, yr turning me on with all yr dirty talk! :roll:

Darn, I wanted to say that :evil:
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Re: Blackout in Los Angeles

Unread postby AQIUS » Tue 13 Sep 2005, 15:19:25

In reply to the ' I'm in the boonies ' comment . . ..
Out in the country has it's drawbacks also. Only a matter of time before the locusts organize, arm, & then start taking what they want. And need.
Where do you think they will go once the food in the cities runs out?
Sure, country folk are better armed, but it takes one helluva citadel to outlast a hungry rampaging horde.
I think the best example is the Mad Max / The Postman scenario.
The looting army/gangs would take just enough from the producers to keep themselves re-supplied, but not so much as to kill the town.
If yer a single isolated outpost, the mob will just overrun you and take it all.
(Of course if you have some big time cache of weapons, you can make it costly for a mob to mess with you.. but then it's the old " wow, they must really have something of worth in there to fight so hard " mentality .. so the mob might just retreat, regroup & return later )
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Re: Intermittent or permanent loss of utilities

Unread postby strider3700 » Tue 13 Sep 2005, 15:35:50

I assume he meant watts. 300 Amps is a lot for a house.

for scrounged solar systems putting though canadian tire last night I found 1750 watt (3000 peak) 12V invertors for $400 slap on a big battery bank and some way of charging the bank and you are well on your way. I question how long an invertor like that would last though, and if it will damage the batteries. "Good" invertors seem to be near $1 /watt but they also have a lot of extra features to scrounge as much as possible out of panels and batteries.
shame on us, doomed from the start
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Re: Blackout in Los Angeles

Unread postby Pops » Tue 13 Sep 2005, 15:35:52

Of course this has been hashed out time and again, Aquis, but it boils down to this, where would you rather be, where the starving, looting, killing hoards began starving, looting and killing or somewhere else?

Having said that of course one of the main reasons to be out of town is so you don’t rely quite so much on in-town infrastructure - not necessarily to have a better field of fire.

:)
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Re: Blackout in Los Angeles

Unread postby CarlinsDarlin » Tue 13 Sep 2005, 16:02:54

AQUIS, I figure by the time the hungry rampaging hordes use up what's available in the cities, they'll have a long way to go to find me, and by then they'll find a lot more targets closer to them to pillage along the way - acres and acres of suburbia await.
First, I don't believe we'll descend into a Mad Max scenario anytime soon. But even if we do, I find it hard to believe that many of those hungry rampaging hordes will get on their bicycles and ride out this far :roll: . First, if they're that hungry, they likely won't have the energy. Second, they'll be too busy trying to survive to make it a plan of attack to drive out to this far in the boonies and see what they can find. I mean, if you were part of such a horde, wouldn't you look closer to home before you ran off into the woods on the chance that something may be there? What if you drove your bicycle all this way and found out I was just as hungry and pissed off as you were?
I may not to keep what I've got indefinitely, but it will keep me for a while. I'd rather not be in the middle of it when it gets started.
Besides, the most important things I have are not material things - it's what I hold between my ears, and the experience I have gained learning to produce much of what we eat. They can't take that from me. The knowledge to rebuild what they have taken will help me build up stores again. And if they do, and I'm gone, I won't need it anymore, will I?
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Re: Intermittent or permanent loss of utilities

Unread postby WisJim » Tue 13 Sep 2005, 16:15:52

Have wood heat, both central furnace and space heating efficient stove, wood cookstove, a couple of years supply of firewood cut and stacked with enough woods to keep us in firewood forever, enough PVs to run 75% of what we run electrically now, with wind back up and engine-generator backup that can run on multiple fuels, battery bank for 3+ days of no sun or wind, DC refrigerator so we don't have to depend on the inverter for the necessities (if a refrig is really a necessity) passive solar and super insulation in the house, our own well and septic plus a creek, large gardens, berries, orchard, pasture, chickens, etc.

Re: Harbor Freight/Norther Hydraulics/etc PV panels--they don't seem to give enough information to make me want to buy them. The PV panels that I have gotten most recently have a 25 year warranty, and some of my older ones had 10 or 20 year warranties and some are 24 years old this year and going strong. I would stick with reputable name brands purchased through a dealer specializing in PVs, even though the initial cost may be more. Same with inverters and charge controllers.
If I were in the market for a back up generator today, I would look at some of the made-in-India "Listeroids" or similiar very heavy slow speed diesel engines, driving a generator with a belt. If I were starting over, and looking just for back up power, I would get the generator first, then batteries and an inverter (so you wouldn't have to run the generator all the time you want to use electricity) and then buy PVs or wind generator--and I would be sure of the wind conditions at my location before investing very much in wind power.
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