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Zero Sum Game

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Zero Sum Game

Postby Jack » Tue 06 Sep 2005, 09:18:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tokyo_to_motueka', '
')you must be joking?! the jobs are gone. done by people in other countries for a fraction of the wage paid in the US. factory floor, computer programming, engineering, design, production systems, etc., etc. all those people in China can do this stuff for much less and US companies are more than happy to fire their US workers, skilled and unskilled, and hire workers in China to do the same thing for 90% less cost.


You make some good points, Tokyo.

The free-traders fail to recognize that the corollary of lower prices to consumers is lower wages to producers.
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Re: Zero Sum Game

Postby dgacioch » Tue 06 Sep 2005, 12:28:44

There is nothing free about free trade in today's world. The system doesnt work, hasnt worked since Nixon took us off the gold standard and let the federal reserve print money at will. Price and wage inflation over the last 35 years (and currency rigging by trading partners) have robbed us of our competitiveness. As has been brought up, the loss of high paying manufacturing jobs has resulted in a net loss of real household income. I dont think people realize that all the labor gains of the last 100 years that people simply take for granted are slowly going out the window so we can buy cheap plastic junk from asian peasants (yes that includes you white collar free trade supporters as well. things like free no deductable health care, pensions, and COLA raises were mainstays of most companies as little as 20 years ago). THERE IS NO POSSIBLE WAY FOR BALANCED TRADE WITHOUT A COMPARABLE STANDARD OF LIVING BETWEEN TRADING PARTNERS. China and India remind me a lot of how the United States was over a hundred years ago. Workers live in factory dorms and are paid slave wages because "room and board" are provided. Workers are not allowed to organize, have to work as long as required, have literally no rights whatsoever, heck ive even heard of some factories closing up shop and reopening elsewhere to avoid paying workerss their monthly wages. In the United States workers organized and helped to elect representatives who looked out for our rights. We protested and and pushed and got labor laws passed which gave us a standard work week, and overtime pay if we worked beyond that. Those things will not happen in communist china, short of a full scale revolution. Before that happens, the chinese government WILL go to war, if for no other reason than to give the people someone to fight besides them.
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Re: Zero Sum Game

Postby RdSnt » Tue 06 Sep 2005, 13:36:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tokyo_to_motueka', 's')o i take it you support in principle most US workers being paid under $0.25/hour? just like their Chinese counterparts?
I support the principle that people ought to be paid the wage that best satisfies the needs of the consumers.

What you are saying here though is that there is a difference between workers and consumers.
The only way the system works at the moment is for the manufacturing jobs to go to places where the workers can't afford the products they are making, thus keeping the prices low for the consumer. This is the modern equivalent of using slave labour.
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Re: Zero Sum Game

Postby Duende » Tue 06 Sep 2005, 13:42:08

jaws wrote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey weren't attacked by Asian UFOs...


Now they make those too? Uh oh.
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Re: Zero Sum Game

Postby marko » Tue 06 Sep 2005, 13:50:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'T')here is no tangible difference between national and international free trade. If you support free trade within your country you have to support it with other countries to remain logically consistent.


Free trade within the US (or within the EU or within any developed nation) is very different from international free trade. Within the US, workers are free to travel wherever they might get the best wage deal. They have some freedom to organize and join unions to improve their working conditions. There are occupational safety and environmental standards to protect workers and society.

Under so-called free trade among nations, workers are not free to cross borders to maximize their advantage, whereas corporations and investors are free to transfer capital across borders to maximize their advantage. Countries that lack the labor and environmental rights that the US and other developed nations enjoy have a structural cost advantage that benefits capital at the cost of workers and environment. The lack of common standards allows capital to gain advantages from international trade that they cannot gain from domestic trade.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'U').S. corporations derive more gains from trade from the comparative advantage they have towards Chinese factory workers than they do with U.S. workers, therefore they trade with Chinese workers. Chinese workers also realize gains from trade. It would be no different if a plant was moved from California to Alabama, a situation where capital mobility is completely free. The objection is braindead nationalism pure and simple.


US corporations certainly gain big advantages from so-called free trade.
Whether any workers, Chinese or American, gain advantages is debatable. American workers clearly do not gain, as study after study shows that their average wage has been dropping. Chinese workers may be doing slightly better in material terms than they did before industrialization. However, they would be doing far better if trade agreements mandated comparable labor and environmental standards as a condition for trade, or if trade agreements granted workers the same mobility that capital enjoys. But that would not be to the advantage of capital, because it would raise wages in low-wage countries, so trade agreements do not include such provisions.

These objections are not a matter of braindead nationalism but a recognition that the current model of free trade benefits capital at the expense of labor.

Perhaps Jaws benefits from so-called free trade because his income derives mainly from his capital investments. However, for those of us who have to work for a living, it is not in our interest as currently configured.
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Re: Zero Sum Game

Postby cube » Tue 06 Sep 2005, 22:07:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'O')ne of the good things of peak oil is that it will put a stop, or at least a good brake, to globalization. The price of transport is going to become a much more important consideration than before.
I lost count how many times someone has made a similar statement. I hope you know that the primary cost of transportation is NOT energy. For large vehicles for example ships and trains the primary cost is of course the vehicle itself. Even if diesel fuel was $6 gallon it would still be cheaper to produce a T-shirt in China and ship it to California rather then produce T-shirts in California and pay California wages.

That's not to say there won't be changes. Large and heavy products with low profit margins would be "re-localized". I can't imagine a company producing bricks in China and paying the transport costs to send it to California. No amount of cheap labor would justify the high transport costs. :roll:

However for "finished goods" in which the transport costs make up only a very small percentage of total costs (DVD's, laptop computers, make up, ect...) don't expect too many changes. :-D
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Re: Zero Sum Game

Postby Snowrunner » Tue 06 Sep 2005, 22:29:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tokyo_to_motueka', 'a') lot of it has gone to China under joint ventures with Chinese state-owned enterprises (foreign investment rules require local participation).


Which I actually find quite smart by the Chinese, this way they are not only farming out cheap labor but also have the chance to get their people trained, and even better, build their own busineses.

Yes yes, poor America, but it's the American Consumer (thanks to Walmart) who expects cheap prices. Someone HAS to pay for those things and if you are not willing to pay the extra price for it being made in your home town but rather have it shipped from China don't complain.
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Re: Zero Sum Game

Postby Snowrunner » Tue 06 Sep 2005, 22:39:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marko', 'F')ree trade within the US (or within the EU or within any developed nation) is very different from international free trade. Within the US, workers are free to travel wherever they might get the best wage deal. They have some freedom to organize and join unions to improve their working conditions. There are occupational safety and environmental standards to protect workers and society.


Those standards though are also very often ignored, I think you could agree to that, and when it comes to unions, I don't think I have ANYBODY hear anybody say anything good about unions lately.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')nder so-called free trade among nations, workers are not free to cross borders to maximize their advantage, whereas corporations and investors are free to transfer capital across borders to maximize their advantage.


Ummm. If I want to work in the US as a foreign citizen I have to jump through quite a few hoops, I CAN though (as a European Citizen) work in any member nation within the EU without needing any papers

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ountries that lack the labor and environmental rights that the US and other developed nations enjoy have a structural cost advantage that benefits capital at the cost of workers and environment. The lack of common standards allows capital to gain advantages from international trade that they cannot gain from domestic trade.


I still think though you overestimate those regulations. It seems to me that a lot of them are just written on papers and people tend to ignore them, in order to "save money".

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hese objections are not a matter of braindead nationalism but a recognition that the current model of free trade benefits capital at the expense of labor.


Obviously it was meant to promote business, not employment. Employment is a cost factor and "good business practice" is to keep costs under control.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')erhaps Jaws benefits from so-called free trade because his income derives mainly from his capital investments. However, for those of us who have to work for a living, it is not in our interest as currently configured.

It isn't really in the interest of developing nations either, because they tend to get the "short end" of the stick as well, in highly subsidized fields like agriculture for example. Which makes things even worse, because there are quite a few nations who can't feed their own people anymore.
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Re: Zero Sum Game

Postby jaws » Wed 07 Sep 2005, 00:52:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tokyo_to_motueka', 'S')o, in six years real income has fallen about $600 for the middle point households.

Sounds like all those service jobs pay so well!


You have to take into account the effect of the technology bubble deflating. Tech jobs were high-paying, skilled work and it was pushed to ridiculous limits. Any punk (real actual punk) off the street could become a website manager or computer technician. The median income falling is likely the effect of a return to the mean.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'y')ou must be joking?! the jobs are gone. done by people in other countries for a fraction of the wage paid in the US. factory floor, computer programming, engineering, design, production systems, etc., etc. all those people in China can do this stuff for much less and US companies are more than happy to fire their US workers, skilled and unskilled, and hire workers in China to do the same thing for 90% less cost.
The jobs aren't "gone", they have been exchanged for other jobs. The opportunity cost of paying an American 5$ an hour to do a job a Chinese can do for .25$ an hour is 4.75$. Replacing the American with the Chinese thus leaves American consumers with 4.75$ in extra income that creates new spending and new jobs.

The alternative would be to ask the American to work for .25$ an hour, which would promptly cause him to quit and search for higher paying employment. The outcome is exactly the same.
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Re: Zero Sum Game

Postby jaws » Wed 07 Sep 2005, 00:58:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'W')hat you are saying here though is that there is a difference between workers and consumers.
The only way the system works at the moment is for the manufacturing jobs to go to places where the workers can't afford the products they are making, thus keeping the prices low for the consumer. This is the modern equivalent of using slave labour.
This is ridiculous, workers are paid money equivalents for the products they create. If Chinese workers would rather buy a shiny new wok and a new apartment instead of the plastic crap they produce in the factory, that is their freedom and their choice. The essence of trade is exchanging the products of your work that you value little for the products of others' work that you value a lot. Through this everyone increases their profit from their work.
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Re: Zero Sum Game

Postby jaws » Wed 07 Sep 2005, 01:17:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dgacioch', 'T')here is nothing free about free trade in today's world. The system doesnt work, hasnt worked since Nixon took us off the gold standard and let the federal reserve print money at will. Price and wage inflation over the last 35 years (and currency rigging by trading partners) have robbed us of our competitiveness. As has been brought up, the loss of high paying manufacturing jobs has resulted in a net loss of real household income. I dont think people realize that all the labor gains of the last 100 years that people simply take for granted are slowly going out the window so we can buy cheap plastic junk from asian peasants (yes that includes you white collar free trade supporters as well. things like free no deductable health care, pensions, and COLA raises were mainstays of most companies as little as 20 years ago). THERE IS NO POSSIBLE WAY FOR BALANCED TRADE WITHOUT A COMPARABLE STANDARD OF LIVING BETWEEN TRADING PARTNERS.
What car do you drive? Where did you get your tv? Your clothes? Your computer? Be assured that you wouldn't be able to afford any of these things at their current level of quality if free trade as you say did not work. It is preposterous to claim that Americans haven't gotten wealthier since the Nixon era. Just look at the enormous size of new houses built today.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')hina and India remind me a lot of how the United States was over a hundred years ago. Workers live in factory dorms and are paid slave wages because "room and board" are provided. Workers are not allowed to organize, have to work as long as required, have literally no rights whatsoever, heck ive even heard of some factories closing up shop and reopening elsewhere to avoid paying workerss their monthly wages. In the United States workers organized and helped to elect representatives who looked out for our rights. We protested and and pushed and got labor laws passed which gave us a standard work week, and overtime pay if we worked beyond that. Those things will not happen in communist china, short of a full scale revolution. Before that happens, the chinese government WILL go to war, if for no other reason than to give the people someone to fight besides them.
You're still looking at the issue from your own western comfortable point of view. To an Asian just coming out of the rice fields, room and board at a factory is a pretty damn good deal. Remember they voluntarily took these jobs. The only alternative for them is to go back to living on the edge of starvation. Free trade with America and Europe makes this possible for them, and the accumulation of capital through their savings (Chinese have very high savings rate) will mean they will rapidly become wealthy from it.

The important point, and the one that many people miss, is that the alternative for them is not a blissful life working among nature, it is near starvation. It was the same error the romantics made condemning the conditions of industrial workers. They believed that industrial workers were better off under the ancien régime, when in fact the great mass of them were outcasts of the feudal economic system, surviving from government charity programs becoming increasinglly less sustainable as population growth accelerated. The chaotic conditions of industrial life were nevertheless a net gain for them, and quickly led to a much more dignified life.

Since you brought up the topic of 19th century America, I'll remind that the outcome of the process was very wealthy industrial workers, the same industrial workers you claim today need protection. The 'labor gains' made through government action would not have been possible without the massively increased productivity that the 19th-century free trade regime made possible.
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Re: Zero Sum Game

Postby nero » Wed 07 Sep 2005, 04:05:15

jaws,

You seem to believe that all trade is due to comparative advantage. But it is not true, the US right now imports 50% more than it exports. It issues dollar denominated debt for the rest. Some might think that the US is getting something for nothing in this deal, and that the Chinese must be fools to believe that the debt won't eventually be inflated away. However the Chinese government isn't as dumb as you might think, by subsidizing Chinese exports (through currency manipulation) they have encouraged an enormous amount of foreign direct investment. That is really the bargain America and China have made: "You give us cheap consumer goods and we'll teach you everything you need to know to be a world leading industrial economy."

Now that would be alright if America was simply teaching the Chinese, but part and parcel of exporting all those manufacturing jobs has been the hollowing out of the American manufacturing base. So it is very much a situation where America is paying for it's imports by exporting its "institutional memory".

It has more similarities to Saudi Arabia selling off their natural inheritance for consumer goods than it does traditional trade induced by comparative advantage.
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Re: Zero Sum Game

Postby CrudeAwakening » Wed 07 Sep 2005, 06:36:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', '
')You're still looking at the issue from your own western comfortable point of view. To an Asian just coming out of the rice fields, room and board at a factory is a pretty damn good deal. Remember they voluntarily took these jobs. The only alternative for them is to go back to living on the edge of starvation. Free trade with America and Europe makes this possible for them, and the accumulation of capital through their savings (Chinese have very high savings rate) will mean they will rapidly become wealthy from it.


I very much doubt that the Chinese factory workers on 10c/hour will "rapidly become wealthy" from their savings. This is quite ridiculous.
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Re: Zero Sum Game

Postby rogerhb » Wed 07 Sep 2005, 08:15:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CrudeAwakening', 'I') very much doubt that the Chinese factory workers on 10c/hour will "rapidly become wealthy" from their savings. This is quite ridiculous.


...they will when the US hyperinflates :-D
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Re: Zero Sum Game

Postby tokyo_to_motueka » Wed 07 Sep 2005, 08:34:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'I')t is preposterous to claim that Americans haven't gotten wealthier since the Nixon era. Just look at the enormous size of new houses built today.

preposterous, eh?

ooh, let's see now.

real median US household income (expressed in 2004-adjusted dollars):

1973 $38,713
2004 $44,389

= a massive increase of $5,676
spread over 31 years!

or a real compound average growth rate (CAGR) of
0.44%

whoo-whee.
now that's what i call big gains!

could it be all those McMansion are really built using lots of money borrowed from other countries, which will never be repaid
because the US petrodollar will implode any year now?

come on, if you are going to try and cite evidence of how shipping all the manufacturing jobs overseas is doing US consumers so much good, you'll have to do a bit better than that.

good luck! :lol:
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Re: Zero Sum Game

Postby nero » Wed 07 Sep 2005, 12:57:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tokyo_to_motueka', '=') a massive increase of $5,676
spread over 31 years!


And don't forget that's household income. Between those two periods women continued to move into the work force in large numbers.

But statistics lie, I think jaws has it right when he looks at concrete things like the size of houses. I do think people have more things and in that respect they are wealthier. On the other hand they are having fewer children so in that respect they are poorer.
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Re: Zero Sum Game

Postby jaws » Wed 07 Sep 2005, 23:35:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', 'j')aws,

You seem to believe that all trade is due to comparative advantage. But it is not true, the US right now imports 50% more than it exports. It issues dollar denominated debt for the rest. Some might think that the US is getting something for nothing in this deal, and that the Chinese must be fools to believe that the debt won't eventually be inflated away.

I don't actually believe that all trade is based on comparative advantage. Less than half of international trade flows can be traced back to comparative advantage. When Toyota or BMW imports cars into the US, it isn't because Germany and Japan have a comparative advantage in cars, it is because some U.S. consumers prefer the quality of imports over domestic cars. It is obviously advantageous for Americans to buy imported cars, and they pay for them through their own exported work. Nobody works for free.

Comparative advantage is a concept that is rooted in microeconomics, not international trade. It states that there are always gains to be made from trade between highly productive people and less productive people through specialization. For example a surgeon might be very skilled as a house painter, it is much better for him to concentrate on surgery and hiring college students to paint his house. The students in exchange get a small share of the surgeon's services in the form of money compensation. Everybody wins, regardless of their absolute productivity, by concentrating on their most productive occupation. The relationship between China and America is classic comparative advantage. Chinese factory workers work on easy jobs so Americans can concentrate on more important things.

Chinese government purchases of U.S. treasury bills may not look profitable but governments don't have a history of taking profitable actions, especially not communist governments. There's no reason to blame the Chinese for buying treasury bills, they would have been issued anyway had they not been bought by China. The real blame lies in the American who won't save money. I don't know why Americans don't save. It might a cultural thing, it might be a fad, it might be the Federal Reserve subsidizing borrowing. The bottom line is there are no savings in America, and the investors need money to buy capital goods. They import money from China.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')owever the Chinese government isn't as dumb as you might think, by subsidizing Chinese exports (through currency manipulation) they have encouraged an enormous amount of foreign direct investment. That is really the bargain America and China have made: "You give us cheap consumer goods and we'll teach you everything you need to know to be a world leading industrial economy."
You'd be surprised at how much Americans are really getting from outsourcing in China. The key to outsourcing is that the profit margins earned by Chinese factories are very low since all they do is manufacture goods ordered by U.S. companies. The U.S. companies retain the ownership and production knowledge of the goods they outsource, they are only 'renting' the factories in China. Once China becomes too expensive, they will rent factories in America.

And contrary to popular belief, currency manipulations don't affect trade flows that much. Exports aren't paid in money as such, they are paid in goods. If the money is pegged and exports become scarce, the price of the exports will rise. The peg will only normalize inflation across both currency zones.
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Re: Zero Sum Game

Postby jaws » Wed 07 Sep 2005, 23:39:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CrudeAwakening', 'I') very much doubt that the Chinese factory workers on 10c/hour will "rapidly become wealthy" from their savings. This is quite ridiculous.
It's happened in every country that adopted liberalism. You would have said the same thing about 19th century American factory workers, and yet they built the wealthiest country in the world.
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Re: Zero Sum Game

Postby cube » Fri 09 Sep 2005, 00:00:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', 'j')aws,

You seem to believe that all trade is due to comparative advantage. But
.............
Now that would be alright if America was simply teaching the Chinese, but part and parcel of exporting all those manufacturing jobs has been the hollowing out of the American manufacturing base. So it is very much a situation where America is paying for it's imports by exporting its "institutional memory".
..........
There may be much truth to what you say. However if Americans really are "stoopid" for emptying out their entire industrial base which took 2 centuries to develop in returns for "temporary" cheap goods...that's not necessarily a weakness of globalization per say is it? That just means the Chinese are better "strategists" then we are. :-D

If Americans demanded congress to "balance" the budget then there would be no massive quantities of treasury bills for the Chinese central bank to buy and we wouldn't be in this mess right now. But of course both the Democrats and Republicans have learned that Americans really don't want a balanced budget. 8)
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Re: Zero Sum Game

Postby CrudeAwakening » Fri 09 Sep 2005, 01:59:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CrudeAwakening', 'I') very much doubt that the Chinese factory workers on 10c/hour will "rapidly become wealthy" from their savings. This is quite ridiculous.
It's happened in every country that adopted liberalism. You would have said the same thing about 19th century American factory workers, and yet they built the wealthiest country in the world.


As did the slaves who helped the settlement and economic development of the US. But it took several generations before the fruits of this growth trickled down to their descendants.

To argue that these chinese factory workers have any kind of real choice, when, as you say, the alternative is starvation, is dissembling. One could argue that slavery is voluntary, as there is always the alternative of suicide.
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