by jaws » Wed 07 Sep 2005, 23:35:55
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', 'j')aws,
You seem to believe that all trade is due to comparative advantage. But it is not true, the US right now imports 50% more than it exports. It issues dollar denominated debt for the rest. Some might think that the US is getting something for nothing in this deal, and that the Chinese must be fools to believe that the debt won't eventually be inflated away.
I don't actually believe that all trade is based on comparative advantage. Less than half of international trade flows can be traced back to comparative advantage. When Toyota or BMW imports cars into the US, it isn't because Germany and Japan have a comparative advantage in cars, it is because some U.S. consumers prefer the quality of imports over domestic cars. It is obviously advantageous for Americans to buy imported cars, and they pay for them through their own exported work. Nobody works for free.
Comparative advantage is a concept that is rooted in microeconomics, not international trade. It states that there are always gains to be made from trade between highly productive people and less productive people through specialization. For example a surgeon might be very skilled as a house painter, it is much better for him to concentrate on surgery and hiring college students to paint his house. The students in exchange get a small share of the surgeon's services in the form of money compensation. Everybody wins, regardless of their absolute productivity, by concentrating on their most productive occupation. The relationship between China and America is classic comparative advantage. Chinese factory workers work on easy jobs so Americans can concentrate on more important things.
Chinese government purchases of U.S. treasury bills may not look profitable but governments don't have a history of taking profitable actions, especially not communist governments. There's no reason to blame the Chinese for buying treasury bills, they would have been issued anyway had they not been bought by China. The real blame lies in the American who won't save money. I don't know why Americans don't save. It might a cultural thing, it might be a fad, it might be the Federal Reserve subsidizing borrowing. The bottom line is there are no savings in America, and the investors need money to buy capital goods. They import money from China.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')owever the Chinese government isn't as dumb as you might think, by subsidizing Chinese exports (through currency manipulation) they have encouraged an enormous amount of foreign direct investment. That is really the bargain America and China have made: "You give us cheap consumer goods and we'll teach you everything you need to know to be a world leading industrial economy."
You'd be surprised at how much Americans are really getting from outsourcing in China. The key to outsourcing is that the profit margins earned by Chinese factories are very low since all they do is manufacture goods ordered by U.S. companies. The U.S. companies retain the ownership and production knowledge of the goods they outsource, they are only 'renting' the factories in China. Once China becomes too expensive, they will rent factories in America.
And contrary to popular belief, currency manipulations don't affect trade flows that much. Exports aren't paid in money as such, they are paid in goods. If the money is pegged and exports become scarce, the price of the exports will rise. The peg will only normalize inflation across both currency zones.