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The meaning of peakoil.com

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: The meaning of peakoil.com

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 05 Sep 2005, 22:36:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', '
')Doomers believe there is no use trying. Any efforts to improve the situation are futile or even counter-productive. Doomers often argue in favor of letting millions of people die -- either because it is inevitable or because it is good policy. Doomers do not believe in political or social action.


Then MonteQuest doesn't fit the "doomer" label either.
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Re: The meaning of peakoil.com

Unread postby bart » Mon 05 Sep 2005, 22:55:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JudoCow09', 'Y')ou guys have way too much time on your hands to make such lengthy posts all commonly backed by facts, ... Still, I can't begin to understand when you guys have fun (other than Jack, who does bring some needed humor to this board ). It seems to me you're always preparing, posting, and researching.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen I was a child, I spake as a child, I understood as a child, I thought as a child: but when I became a man, I put away childish things.

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Re: The meaning of peakoil.com

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 05 Sep 2005, 23:07:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', ' ')Doomers believe there is no use trying. Any efforts to improve the situation are futile or even counter-productive. Doomers often argue in favor of letting millions of people die -- either because it is inevitable or because it is good policy. Doomers do not believe in political or social action. Not surprisingly, they often have a racist or nationalist tinge. In the US, doomers are often associated with "survivalist gun-toting nuts."

Doomers trade in fear and hysteria. They don't keep current, except for reading an occasional article by Kunstler or Ruppert. Their conversation is full of images of riots and cannibals, guns and survival rations.


Hmmm...since I cater to none of these positions, I wonder why so many call me a doomer?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') note that even some of the most prolific of the peakoil.com posters repeat the same arguments over and over, and don't seem to read much outside peakoil.com .


It's called patience. Some people don't bother to read what has already been written, or they don't understand the concepts. Mostly they are stuck in an "old school" world paradigm. As to my threads, they are as diverse as you can get. Hardly the "same old thing."

See my blog: http://depletion.blogspot.com/

Yes, sometimes I tend to "boil the ocean" trying to sway my adversaries. Working on that.

Again, you assume I don't read much outside of peakoil.com. I read extensively.
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Re: The meaning of peakoil.com

Unread postby rostov » Mon 05 Sep 2005, 23:20:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', '
')Doomers believe there is no use trying. Any efforts to improve the situation are futile or even counter-productive. Doomers often argue in favor of letting millions of people die -- either because it is inevitable or because it is good policy. Doomers do not believe in political or social action. Not surprisingly, they often have a racist or nationalist tinge. In the US, doomers are often associated with "survivalist gun-toting nuts."

Doomers trade in fear and hysteria. They don't keep current, except for reading an occasional article by Kunstler or Ruppert. Their conversation is full of images of riots and cannibals, guns and survival rations.


Is this your definition of "doomer"? In any case, have we or have we not agreed (come to a consensus) of what a doomer is??

I love your definition, really. If your claim that doomers are what you say they are, a LOT of people labelled as doomers have a good justification defending themselves from others who are labelling them as doomers. "Whacha mean I'm a doomer? Sure I got guns and lands and no kids and bugging out, but at least I'm spreading the word and forming a community!"

Even if your definition is wrong, it sounds more like any-ole depressed bloke resigned to mastubating him/her-self to death...
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Re: The meaning of peakoil.com

Unread postby bart » Tue 06 Sep 2005, 00:00:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MQ', '.')..since I cater to none of these positions, I wonder why so many call me a doomer?
Apparently something is not being communicated. I and others would welcome your taking a more outspoken stand on doomerism and hopelessness.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es, sometimes I tend to "boil the ocean" trying to sway my adversaries.
Understood, but is it really necessary? I'm not your adversary. I agree with you for the most part, and I remember trespam saying the same thing. You are not alone, but part of a community of people who think much the same way. We all have something to learn from each other.

Didn't you say you'd been at this for 30 years? Maintaining your beliefs must have been hard during that time, and it may be hard to believe that you don't have to fight so hard anymore. That you're among friends.

I've noticed something like this in old-time campaigners like Jan Lundberg, Ted Trainer and Richard Register. They're so accustomed to having to struggle ... they've become tough loners, not used to being in a community.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')gain, you assume I don't read much outside of peakoil.com. I read extensively.
MQ, all I know about you is what you write in your posts, and you don't make much reference to other thinkers. I would love to see you relating your thoughts to what other people have written. For example, that you agree with Heinberg here and here, but not there. Or that, Jeremy Rifkin's book "Entropy" is close to your position, except for x, y and z.

A theme here is your frustration that people misunderstand you. That they evidently didn't read your Post #1379.

As writers, it is our job to make certain that such misunderstandings don't occur. We cannot assume that people have read what we've written in the past. We've got to make things clear. It's not an easy job, but that's why we're paid the big bucks. (joke)
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Re: The meaning of peakoil.com

Unread postby JudoCow09 » Tue 06 Sep 2005, 00:26:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', ' ')Doomers believe there is no use trying. Any efforts to improve the situation are futile or even counter-productive. Doomers often argue in favor of letting millions of people die -- either because it is inevitable or because it is good policy. Doomers do not believe in political or social action. Not surprisingly, they often have a racist or nationalist tinge. In the US, doomers are often associated with "survivalist gun-toting nuts."

Doomers trade in fear and hysteria. They don't keep current, except for reading an occasional article by Kunstler or Ruppert. Their conversation is full of images of riots and cannibals, guns and survival rations.


Hmmm...since I cater to none of these positions, I wonder why so many call me a doomer?


Hmm...HMMM.....I'm honestly just going to be frank here. Maybe it's because you have no faith in the human species to find any type of alternate source of energy. At least that's how you've been coming across to me.

And bart's right. A lot of your conclusions come from scientific facts and laws, but rarely do I see the reflection of another person in your writings. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
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Re: The meaning of peakoil.com

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 06 Sep 2005, 00:31:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MQ', '.')..since I cater to none of these positions, I wonder why so many call me a doomer?
Apparently something is not being communicated. I and others would welcome your taking a more outspoken stand on doomerism and hopelessness.


Ok, I'll do a thread on it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es, sometimes I tend to "boil the ocean" trying to sway my adversaries.
Understood, but is it really necessary? I'm not your adversary. I agree with you for the most part, and I remember trespam saying the same thing. You are not alone, but part of a community of people who think much the same way. We all have something to learn from each other.


Didn't say you were. I was referring to my latest bouts with the likes of JD and Wildwell. A poor use of my time, but I hate being accused of something I didn't do or say.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ']')MQ, all I know about you is what you write in your posts, and you don't make much reference to other thinkers. I would love to see you relating your thoughts to what other people have written. For example, that you agree with Heinberg here and here, but not there. Or that, Jeremy Rifkin's book "Entropy" is close to your position, except for x, y and z.

Boy, guess you haven't read as much of my posts as you claim. Many of my threads were inspired by Rifkin's book, Entropy. I often refer to and quote, Heinberg, Kunstler, Catton, Rifkin, McKibben, Meadows, Odum, et.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') theme here is your frustration that people misunderstand you. That they evidently didn't read your Post #1379.

No, they misunderstand ecology science mostly. Most people do. Like "survival of the fittest" means the strongest survive. It has nothing to do with the struggle for survival. It's about genetics.

Others have a different world paradigm and cannot fathom mine. In response, they often distort my views, not comprehending my position.

What I was saying was that I often repeat arguments because people haven't read what you have read. You read post #1379, they didn't, so I have to reiterate. It's the "repetitive threads syndrome" that forums suffer from.
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Re: The meaning of peakoil.com

Unread postby bart » Tue 06 Sep 2005, 00:42:32

MQ, what about moving into the big leagues? Polishing some of your best work, getting feedback from people you respect, and going for publication?

I warn you though. You can't blame your readers; that's bush league. If there is widespread misunderstanding, the good writer will figure out what went wrong and fix it.

Best of luck... and GO FOR IT!
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Re: The meaning of peakoil.com

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Tue 06 Sep 2005, 00:48:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', ' ')
It's not an easy job, but that's why we're paid the big bucks. (joke)
Good one. :-D Expressing one's thoughts about overshoot is very difficult and perilous. I don't know if you heard Matt Savinar the other night. He fell into the trap that lurks at the heart of this issue of peak oil. He was discussing the oil situation with Richard Hoagland, former science advisor to Walter Cronkite at CBS. Hoagland is now an Apostle for ET and believes that Shadow Government agencies have possession of alien technology and an infinite energy source. What Hoagland did, in my estimation, was to lay a subtle trap for Savinar to expose the 'doomerism' that underlies the whole Peak Oil issue. He suggested to Savinar that it would be a good thing if they could use the Freedom Of Information Act to get this infinite energy source out in the open and available for our general use. Savinar replied that an infinite energy source would doom us all to totally trashing the planet in short order, or words to that effect. Most people hearing that would likely assume that Savinar hates humanity and wants us all to die. Remember that the ecological mindset which regards humans as a species displaying the same behavior as bacteria in a petri dish or reindeer breeding their way to a die-off is not welcome to most people. I myself agree with Monte and others who have come to understand these ecological issues as a deadly peril to us. To most people, such views are misanthropic, bad news that they would resist fervently. Its like the line in the movie A Few Good Men, 'You can't handle the Truth.' Hoagland's trap, then, was to bring this aspect of the Peak Oil message to everyone's attention as a way of marshalling a negative response from the public to Matt Savinar. Hoagland wants everybody to get on board with the Trekkie bullshit he is peddling. What Hoagland also did, which is my point here, is to exploit the 'bad news' aspect of Peak Oil; it is precisely that aspect which makes it difficult to look at this issue clearly.
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Re: The meaning of peakoil.com

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 06 Sep 2005, 00:58:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JudoCow09', ' ')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'H')mmm...since I cater to none of these positions, I wonder why so many call me a doomer?


Hmm...HMMM.....I'm honestly just going to be frank here. Maybe it's because you have no faith in the human species to find any type of alternate source of energy. At least that's how you've been coming across to me.


Faith? No, I do not base my life upon faith that technology and the free hand of the market will come to the rescue. That is cornucopianism.

We will find many alternative sources of energy, but they will not be as cheap and readily available as fossil fuels, without which we could not have built our modern civilization.

We are dealing with time, scalability, and energy density. We don't have the time. We can't scale up the technologies in the manner we will need them, and nothing on the horizon even remotely approaches the energy density of oil.

If we stay on this path, there will be a shortfall and an increased inability to access energy, through either outright shortages, or through monetary costs. This will lead to a decline in the standard of living and an increase in human mortality.

In the arena of scarcity, there will be conflict.

What I have faith in is that man will try to maintain the status quo.

The status quo is what brought us to this crossroads. Time to change our path, not find a way to continue down the same old road towards oblivion.

"Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is the definition of insanity." I say we try a new way or path towards something that is sustainable and more rewarding. Something that is a culture of quality, rather than one of quantity and inequity. One than is in balance with the environment and not in competition with it.

That's a doomer view? Hardly.
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Re: The meaning of peakoil.com

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 06 Sep 2005, 01:01:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', 'M')Q, what about moving into the big leagues? Polishing some of your best work, getting feedback from people you respect, and going for publication?

I warn you though. You can't blame your readers; that's bush league. If there is widespread misunderstanding, the good writer will figure out what went wrong and fix it.

Best of luck... and GO FOR IT!


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MOntequest', 'I')deologically, we need an ecological worldview; a paradigm shift in our thinking about the world about us. Which brings us to a conundrum: it is difficult, if almost impossible (even in scientific discussions) for people of one paradigm to communicate with those who perceive and reason in terms dictated by another different paradigm. We all need to be on the same page and we are not.
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Re: The meaning of peakoil.com

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 06 Sep 2005, 01:11:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', ' ')
It's not an easy job, but that's why we're paid the big bucks. (joke)
Good one. :-D Expressing one's thoughts about overshoot is very difficult and perilous. I don't know if you heard Matt Savinar the other night. He fell into the trap that lurks at the heart of this issue of peak oil. He was discussing the oil situation with Richard Hoagland, former science advisor to Walter Cronkite at CBS. Hoagland is now an Apostle for ET and believes that Shadow Government agencies have possession of alien technology and an infinite energy source. What Hoagland did, in my estimation, was to lay a subtle trap for Savinar to expose the 'doomerism' that underlies the whole Peak Oil issue. He suggested to Savinar that it would be a good thing if they could use the Freedom Of Information Act to get this infinite energy source out in the open and available for our general use. Savinar replied that an infinite energy source would doom us all to totally trashing the planet in short order, or words to that effect. Most people hearing that would likely assume that Savinar hates humanity and wants us all to die. Remember that the ecological mindset which regards humans as a species displaying the same behavior as bacteria in a petri dish or reindeer breeding their way to a die-off is not welcome to most people. I myself agree with Monte and others who have come to understand these ecological issues as a deadly peril to us. To most people, such views are misanthropic, bad news that they would resist fervently. Its like the line in the movie A Few Good Men, 'You can't handle the Truth.' Hoagland's trap, then, was to bring this aspect of the Peak Oil message to everyone's attention as a way of marshalling a negative response from the public to Matt Savinar. Hoagland wants everybody to get on board with the Trekkie bullshit he is peddling. What Hoagland also did, which is my point here, is to exploit the 'bad news' aspect of Peak Oil; it is precisely that aspect which makes it difficult to look at this issue clearly.


And here are my words to that effect:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'T')o me, given our current cultural mindset, the worse thing that could happen would be to find some inexhaustible new source of energy. We would doom the human race to extinction by making the planet uninhabitable through our wanton consumption. Now if we developed fusion and also reverted back to the population of the mid-1800's, did away with the "throw-away" society, recycled and downsized everything, instituted de-centralization, embraced environmental constraints, and generally practiced a conservation ethic, then that would be a good start--even in an entropy world where it all ends anyway.
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Re: The meaning of peakoil.com

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Tue 06 Sep 2005, 01:13:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'H')mmm...since I cater to none of these positions, I wonder why so many call me a doomer?

What I have faith in is that man will try to maintain the status quo.

That's a doomer view? Hardly.
The debate about the word 'doomer' seems to be the hot issue right now. If you don't like that word, Monte, maybe you could find some alternative word to express the notion that without cheap oil, the high density and high quality fuel that has made this world possible, we will begin to suffer and the world's population will have to fall to a sustainable level. That seems to be what your message is and I see nothing unreasonable in it. I recall you coined a witty term for Kunstler and Heinberg: 'optimistic doomers'. Is that more like what you consider yourself to be? If we do try to maintain the staus quo, which is most likely, we won't prepare ahead of time and the situation will be all messed up after the oil supply begins to drop off.
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Re: The meaning of peakoil.com

Unread postby bart » Tue 06 Sep 2005, 01:29:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MQ', 'I')deologically, we need an ecological worldview; a paradigm shift in our thinking about the world about us. Which brings us to a conundrum: it is difficult, if almost impossible (even in scientific discussions) for people of one paradigm to communicate with those who perceive and reason in terms dictated by another different paradigm. We all need to be on the same page and we are not

Courage, Monte!

Revolutions in thought and society have happened many times before. That doesn't mean it's easy to communicate new ideas, but what worthwhile thing is easy?

In the last 30 years I have never seen people so open to new ideas as right now. I just returned home from visiting my 80+ uncle, retired professor from a leading university. On the table next to his chair was a review of Kunstler's "Long Emergency" that appeared in American Scientist. What did he think of it? "The article is right," he said. "We have big problems ahead."

There is a network of websites, groups and publications, all hungering for deeper knowlege about Peak Oil and its implications. The mainstream newspapers have been picking up the story, including the leading papers in the US and England. The French government is actively planning for the end of cheap oil. As far as PO, I am Mr. Nobody, yet I've been interviewed by a national magazine and the SF Chronicle, and and been asked to be on a radio program (local).

Monte, POniks, the time is ripe.

The biggest thing holding us back now is our own preconceptions.
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Re: The meaning of peakoil.com

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Tue 06 Sep 2005, 01:44:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', ' ') As far as PO, I am Mr. Nobody, yet I've been interviewed by a national magazine and the SF Chronicle, and and been asked to be on a radio program (local).

The biggest thing holding us back now is our own preconceptions.
As an even bigger Mr. Nobody than you, Bart, I can at least chime in if something strikes me. And this strikes me as important: you are very concerned about the issues surrounding the word 'doomer' and its implications. The radio interview of Matt Savinar and his exchange with Richard Hoagland contains a valuable lesson for us. We can split hairs about what is a doomer and what is a more responsible attitude, but to the public at large, the whole Peak Oil thing is doomerism, IMO, and as Hoagland showed, it can be used against us to turn the public away from considering the issue. That is the biggest thing holding us back. Unfortunately, I have no solution to the problem. The denial factor weighs heavily because an average Joe on the street can grasp the significance in a flash and will resist it. A PE coach I talked to once about it put it to me like this: 'I can't afford to worry about the price of oil!'. The irony of it all is that this is one of the biggest reasons for the 'doomer' attitude.
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Re: The meaning of peakoil.com

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 06 Sep 2005, 02:16:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'H')mmm...since I cater to none of these positions, I wonder why so many call me a doomer?

What I have faith in is that man will try to maintain the status quo.

That's a doomer view? Hardly.
The debate about the word 'doomer' seems to be the hot issue right now. If you don't like that word, Monte, maybe you could find some alternative word to express the notion that without cheap oil, the high density and high quality fuel that has made this world possible, we will begin to suffer and the world's population will have to fall to a sustainable level. That seems to be what your message is and I see nothing unreasonable in it. I recall you coined a witty term for Kunstler and Heinberg: 'optimistic doomers'. Is that more like what you consider yourself to be? If we do try to maintain the staus quo, which is most likely, we won't prepare ahead of time and the situation will be all messed up after the oil supply begins to drop off.


Yeah, "optimistic doomer" works, I guess. Or hopeless ideologue. :-D
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Re: The meaning of peakoil.com

Unread postby johnmarkos » Tue 06 Sep 2005, 03:11:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'H')e suggested to Savinar that it would be a good thing if they could use the Freedom Of Information Act to get this infinite energy source out in the open and available for our general use. Savinar replied that an infinite energy source would doom us all to totally trashing the planet in short order, or words to that effect. Most people hearing that would likely assume that Savinar hates humanity and wants us all to die.

I don't think Savinar hates humanity and wants us all to die. However, I think he's wrong about a hypothetical unlimited energy source. It is a fallacy that a clean, unlimited source of energy would exacerbate overshoot. I believe it would be a boon to humanity, particularly if energy production were separated from land use, as in JohnDenver's space beams.

I'm not claiming that such a thing is likely, just that it is desirable.

What is interesting is that I suspect that >50% of peakoil.com members think clean unlimited energy would doom us all (I have created a poll to gauge this). Is there an underlying misanthropy in this opinion? The "average Joe" seems to think so.
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Re: The meaning of peakoil.com

Unread postby bart » Tue 06 Sep 2005, 03:15:03

Anything but doomer!

As MQ just said, it's very hard to put across the new paradigm -- no point in making it any harder with a negative label.

And as PMS points out that, there is a constant danger that people will hit us with that concept.

Here are some terms used by other people:

Powerdown -- Richard Heinberg
The Prosperous Way Down -- H.T. Odum
Energy Descent - David Holmgren
Ecotopia - Ernest Callenbach
permaculture
sustainability

From my experience in journalism & public relations, some suggestions.

The connotations of the terms used make a tremendous difference.

With the general public, I like to use the terms "sustainabiity," "end of cheap energy" and "low energy future". "Green" is a nice general term.

I would NEVER use the terms die-off, doom or doomer. On this board, we're accustomed to the terms and we bandy them abound freely. It's understandable, but I would suggest not using them even here. Newbies, researchers and reporters come here for background, and those terms are an instant turn-off.

If you want people to recognize an unpalatable truth, don't use inflammatory language. Instead, be matter-of-fact and understated. Don't browbeat the reader, but show him the information.

The dieoff site has a very effective beginning -- a series of graphs, mapping for example the rise of population with the rise in the use of fossil fuel.

The most devastating talk I've heard is the lecture by Nathan Lewis from Cal Tech about the limited energy sources on earth, and the possible consequences of global warming. With ineluctable logic, he built up his case with the tone of a doctor discussing a patient's broken leg.

Don't make negative predictions about things you're not certain of. At the moment, the chance for a good US energy policy look piss poor. But we don't know what will happen in a year, so we shouldn't say things like "It's impossible."

Most importantly, we've got to offer hope and a direction for people to go.

Imagine how you would like the doctor to tell you that your husband or wife has cancer.
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Re: The meaning of peakoil.com

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Tue 06 Sep 2005, 03:46:46

The word 'doomer' could perhaps be defined thus: efforts to ameliorate the situation won't work. Heinberg refers to 'powerdown'. The doomer says it won't work. There is no solution, is the doomer response to anything suggested to help us get through the hard times. My argument against doomerism is that it is a death sentence against humanity even though it is not yet a certainty. I can sympathize with the unabashed doomers in this sense: the evidence is strong that our fate is grim indeed, for all the arguments which we all know already. The doomer feels that pollyannaism is cowardly - face up to it he says. But we just don't really know. I like Monte's term 'optimistic doomer'. There's a chance we can get through this. Bart, your concerns about public perceptions are natural given your line of work. I'm not approaching this from the same angle though. I'm only talking to fellow peakoilers. Visitors to this site can think what they want to. (BTW, I asked Jato once why he kept on going through the same arguments over and over as we all tend to do here. His answer was: therapy)
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Re: The meaning of peakoil.com

Unread postby Z » Tue 06 Sep 2005, 04:07:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', 'D')on't make negative predictions about things you're not certain of.


Can't agree with that. People see what they see. Pessimists and optimists have both a role to play in this. If you supress one side of the argument, it's really putting your head in the sand. It is a good advice for a sell pitch, but it is an awful one to perceive reality. What it really does is finally to convice people that they ('we') can do anything and all that is needed is to make the bad news going away.

Last, I will point that people come together in times of crisis. If they have the feeling that there is no problem, they will ignore the situation and let the problem evolve into an even bigger crisis.
Last edited by Z on Tue 06 Sep 2005, 04:14:22, edited 1 time in total.
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